Forecasting on Stormtrack

[Jim Saueressig]

I think the bigger issue is things like this:

tornadoguy11

Current Activity
Viewing Forum --> Forecasts & Nowcasts <-- (restricted)

Join Date - 04-21-2011

Skroblus

Current Activity
Viewing Thread 4/25/11 FCST: KS, MO, OK, TX, IL, AR

Join Date - 04-03-2011

names like d50man viewing as well?

What happened to real names?

Keep it real, keep it more organized = Less trolls.

 

[Jake Orosi]

I think the issue more lies with people getting mad that we [and i say we as in experienced chasers] not spoon feeding them the tornadoes. To make a post like that being pissed off that none of us were holding their hand to the tornado is complete crap. We don't owe anyone anything in that regards. We have spent the time to do our research and invest thousands of dollars to put miles and experience under our belts...and when someone is going to get mad because they simply couldn't load up with technology that their allowance paid for and follow us to storms is where the issue comes from.

Oh no - I meant my post as more of an aside. I do agree that the post quoted in the OP is ridiculous (I found it more "funny" than angering, but that's probably because I haven't been at this long). Clearly that individual has a...distorted impression of what storm chasing entails, or a bizarre sense of entitlement.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I think the bigger issue is things like this:

tornadoguy11

Skroblus

names like d50man viewing as well?

What happened to real names?

Keep it real, keep it more organized = Less trolls.

Good catch, Jim. I continue to be amazed at the names of some new members I see on this forum. When I applied to join, I was explicitly told to pick a "normal" name. I don't see how people using these names are getting into the forum. I thought a moderator had to approve of the application. Thankfully, I have seen a few people with these names listed as "suspended" in their member status, so at least someone is trying to do something about it. I'm guessing the pay-$5-just-to-join clause replaced the write-an-essay-about-why-you-want-to-join-the-forum,-and-it-must-be-meteorologically-related requirement to join the server. No wonder post quality is decreasing.

 

[Skip Talbot]

This issue is the result of a change in how accounts are approved on Stormtrack, which the moderators have no control of. The real names policy is definitely still in effect. If you see a bad username or post by a bad username, please PM one of the staff or Report the Post. We try to look out for these, but some slip through the nets. Thanks

 

[JWWaldschmidt]

I'm the king of busts. I've been chasing since 2006 and have seen a grand total of 8 tornadoes and busted many more times than that. But I'm getting better at making forecasts thanks to people in this forum. The forums in question have been invaluable to me in learning how to make a forecast because I look at what people are talking about and use it as a learning tool. Actually, I do more of this on days when I cannot chase than when I can because when I can chase I try to make my own forecast and choose a target accordingly.

That being said, it pisses me off to no end that people will come in here and take advantage of such a great learning tool and not use it for that, but rather unshamefully use it as a tool to leech off of others efforts AND have the gall to complain when they don't perform to their expectations. It's indicative of a larger problem we have today: the number of people who feel they are owed something for no reason whatsoever. How in the hell can anyone feel that some of the experienced forecasters in here 'owe' them a valid forecast?

I'm all for making the target area forum even more restrictive than it is, even if it means I'm not qualified to be there. I don't use it to choose my target area, so nothing will change for me. I would be all for making it viewable to everyone AFTER the event so that we could still use it as a learning tool. We need to do something so that we don't lose any more of the people that actually add value to it.

This.

I'm relatively new to chasing, and very much still a learner. I don't post much on here, but I felt I'd put my $0.02 in on this matter, since it applies to me.

I pull up the models daily and go through the runs, looking for things that jump out at me. I make my own notes, and draw my own conclusions. Then I pull up the forecast threads, and read the reviews of those who have MUCH more experience then me. Sometimes they agree, other times I'm wrong, and I learn from those who have posted there.

That being said, I would NEVER expect anyone to post specific information on their chase days, especially live, up-to-the minute. I love discussing such details with different chasers, but they very rarely impact when & where I go. I've had more busts than success at this point, but with every bust I come out with that much more experience. It'd take me much longer to learn some of these lessons without the words of advice of those who post on here.

To those who do put their $0.02 in on forecasts especially, thank you for helping me learn. For those who are planning to stop because of this thread, I don't blame you. I've seen many other "newbies" leaching off of those who have already learned their lessons, rather than learning their own lessons.

 

[Rob H]

As for forecast threads, the discussion and sharing of ideas is one of the strengths of Stormtrack. People with varying degrees of experience can come together and learn.

When it stops being 'Oh, that's interesting what <Highly visible/successful chaser> said I'll go learn about low level lapse rates' and more of 'Hey, <Highly visible/successful chaser> is targeting this area - let's drive there!' is when there's a problem. Look at other forums, look at Facebook, and you'll see many people who don't think twice about this kind of behavior. I know I'm not liable, but it would burn me if someone leeched my forecast, and I'd be less likely to post. I've already noticed several very good forecasters have stopped contributing to FCST threads, and I wonder if this is part of the issue.

So much of the FCST threads are just regurgitated SPC outlooks anyways - saying that CAPE is 3000 so there should be good storms isn't exactly helping anyone learn.

edit: Bill, I agree with your statements completely. The FCST threads just seem to have become less of an educational resource and more of a community discussion on where to go. I don't have the solution, so I'm not really helping anything by complaining.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Discussing forecasts is a great way for new participants to learn, but it's impossible to discuss forecasts in much detail without clearly revealing one's target. When storm chasing was more of a niche hobby without much of a public following, open discussions weren't as much of a concern. Nowadays, it's not just the dozens of new chasers with a genuine desire to learn how to forecast who read this information - it's the masses now. It's the locals, the Discovery fans, the casual enthusiasts - people who probably wouldn't ever think of doing things like checking out a meterology book nor read through Jeff Haby's web site.

Even if you're a dedicated new chaser and not a 'leech' per se, if you can find an experienced chaser revealing his target, you're not going to ignore that information either! No one wants to drive 1,000 miles and bust. Newbies and vets alike pay the same amounts of money for gas. Interestingly enough, this issue is the reason the CFDG list was formed. Looking at this discussion, you can clearly see they had a good reason for doing it. I was never allowed to join, and honestly, that was probably a good thing for me in the long run.

To be honest though, once you finally pick up on forecasting skills, there is a decreasing need to discuss with others. Analyzing surface and upper air features becomes easier with practice, models are easy to read and getting better in accuracy. We have more data available now than ever before. It's true you can still miss things now and then, which discussion can sometimes reveal. For the experienced, discussing things then becomes an act of charity toward the newer participants. Nothing wrong with that - but the sour taste comes from that act of charity getting exploited by people for whom it wasn't intended.

 

[Jason Foster]

Well, some of the SPC stuff is naturally going to be "regurgitated" because it is relevant to the discussion any one forecast may be making. Sure, some kinda just shuffle the words to seem engaged in the forecasting process due to a need to validate their worth, but I am more than happy to see posts in the forecast section that have the same elements from SPC. Most every forecast thread is going to point toward cape, helicity, lapse rates and LIs, etc. I personally don't post much if any because I can't even speak right terms many times because I am self taught and what I say/type doesn't make sense to the degree'd folks (although I'm getting better chasing with a pro-met).

The real quality forecasts are not only the ones that point out certain pro/cons (I'm a sucker for a T.Marshall style forecast), but also ones that are almost elemental. I love when posts are written such that it's for the whole community rather than just pro-mets. I especially love when folks look BEYOND the models and explain the "physics" behind the forecast. I do however tend to loose it beyond the 3 day outlook. I'm strictly a meso scale...with little to no knowledge of synoptic scale forecasting. That is where I'm still kinda dependent on SPC & other chasers/forecasters.

We should however really emphasize the reward of understanding and doing your own forecast. I remember Faidley in the 1995 TWC video talking about it. I'm not all big on meteorology, I forecast only to be successful at chasing, but the reward of doing it yourself is huge. Others are probably the same way, hence the folks only looking at others. This may be in part due to TV shows and the like, but it's silly to ignore that people chase for many reasons that have nothing to do with forecasting. It's also somewhat elites to EXPECT someone to become an almost pro-level forecaster, but I'm OK when recognition is given.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Although I'm not a chaser...and to be brutally honest, I freely acknowledge that I'm really too much of a "noob" to really have a say in the matter...I would lament the closing of the forecast discussion area. I have no intention of ever using the forecasts to go chasing (I don't live anywhere close to the plains and don't have the means or equipment to travel and chase safely or effectively anyway even if I wanted); but as I teach myself some forecasting skills, I do like to compare the forecasts members make with meteorological truth as the events take place, as much as I am able (monitoring NEXRAD and SN during events, for instance). Since you folks are kind enough not to simply make statements like "according to my calculations, northern Tulsa would be a good place to stage", but rather tend to include information that outlines or alludes to the facts you use to make your decisions, your forecasts are useful to my education (such as it is) regarding the whys of forecasting and I appreciate that. I could still manage to learn in other ways should access to that area be closed, so it's not absolutely crucial or anything...but it is a wonderful resource for someone like me, and it would be a shame to lose it.

 

[Todd Renshaw]

I tell you what, if I ever drive the 1,000 miles to leech off anybody's forecast, (I wouldn't, but if I did), feel free to do this to my car while we're waiting for the storms to initiate. (Don't forget to add a box of crayons to the list of standard equipment.)

Via: buzzfeed.com

 

[Jonathan Eakins]

I am speaking as someone who's post count would probably lead some to believe that I am a "noob" to chasing, or weather in general. a CAPE is what superman and batman wear, right?

I have lived in the Michigan / Indiana area all of my life. I have never been west of the Mississippi. Unfortunately I've never had the thrill of chasing a viciously rotating right turner that fired off the dry line, yet. I am, however, a trained spotter, and a local area chaser, when work days off and severe weather both agree with each other. I have read the forecasts and nowcasts for years now, long before it was required to be a member to get into that area. I haven't posted much, because I like to listen, and to learn. *grins* But I must admit that my favorite posts are when people think that the next system moving in will be the next super outbreak, even though it's 3 days out. THAT'S what I love most about this board. People get excited. People get excited all about the same passion, and can spread their hopes to others that can get excited.

I did agree with the decision to lock the forecast and nowcast threads to members to prevent copycatting. Unfortunately, as others have said, it's easy to get this information anywhere these days. The thing is, though, with all the publicity that storm chasing has had with TV coverage/series and all, Joe Blow off the street will get into the car now and head for the nearest tornado warned storm, without even needing/wanting to check a forecast. I know all of you "professional" chasers have seen that a lot more than I have. But even here in Northern Indiana where we don't get major action often--at least, not as often as I would like--Aquaintences will tell me how they want to go "chase them storms", without having any idea of how the storm works, how to approach them more safely, planning your escapes, etc.

It's a problem that is bigger than the forum. Yes, the people who take their chasing and forecasting seriously should be concerned about giving away their targets to noobs who would rip it off. But the thing is, a lot of people do it anyway outside of Stormtrack...but the more scary part is the people who head for the nearest tower without even knowing what Stormtrack, or any other weather related information, is.

 

[jmace]

Although I'm fascinated with storms I like to watch from my back porch. I do appreciate following this forum and I read the forcasts and nowcasts in my area for my personal awarness and preparedness. I believe I received information on the NOW thread about the Iowa boyscout camp tornado before the news ever reported it. I thank you for your posts!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Public or even commercial discussions on topics like forecasts are generally free of liability. This has been tested several times in recent years, e.g., someone sued TWC for a bad forecast and they lost the case. However it can work the other way. I recall a case in CA where a man sued a member of an automotive discussion group after he posted a suspension repair guide that was incorrect and lead to an accident. Another example of this problem is with medical discussions, where people post incorrect data. I see this all the time as an EMT. Having said this, if someone wants to pursue a legal case, they can sue you for almost anything and you have to fight it. You would have to prove the single discussion comment lead to your loss.

There are of course exceptions. If someone posted a false report that lead directly to serious injury, e.g, a stadium stampede after an **intentional** prank tornado report, you could be held accountable.

I find the forecast discussions mainly an educational tool. There are some brilliant forecast minds on ST and I enjoy the discussions. However, one of my cardinal forecast rules is never to change or base my own forecast on what I read in ST. Forecasts are often prejudiced by the posters geographical location or preferences. This is why I suggest breaking down the target areas even more, into smaller regions, rather than, for example, TX, OK, NM, KS, NE and IA in one group. I think this used to be done on ST.

I rather doubt a substantial amount of chasers are targeting their locations based on ST discussions alone. I've had many new chasers tell me they monitor the spotter / chaser networks to follow others. This has become a serious problem with hurricane chasing, as prime locations are often over run with (non-chaser) idiots following the network.

W.