Forecasting on Stormtrack

[Andy Jackson]

How does this statement relate to a thread about wanabe chasers milking off those who put in the time? Just curious if there is a point you are making or a generalization or what.

Ok, I'm just trying to say this: The bigger something gets the harder it will be (banging a head against a wall) to try to handle this issue. If I came off to harsh I didn't mean to, but I do see a correlation. I'm not against the way things are. I was thinking about this very topic last Tuesday and realized some might think I'm doing that very thing. So on Tuesday I came across some other chasers and ended up driving a different route to avoid the suspicion I was following them. Sorry, I wish I were to have joined this site back in 07 so I wouldn't seem so new on here but, that's life.

 

[Jason Hobbs]

I'm one of those New People that have appeared recently, though my good name (HA!) has been tarnished by the "Stormchasers" series following. (Especially since I showed up about the same time as the latest season of said show.....ah well.)
I originally signed up for this site back in 08-09 or so, but allowed my account to lapse entirely--it wasn't like it mattered to me, the weather in Egypt (where I was) consisted of "Fog, hot, dusty wind, HOLY FLYING FROGS OF RAIN, oh, its dry and hot again." That being said, I had contemplated wandering my way out to the field on my own, with little knowledge and a 'net connection for all of about 3.2 seconds.
After recovering from the injuries induced by violent, convulsive laughter at the idiocy of said idea, I decided it would be prudent to hook up with some folks from here to keep me from getting myself impaled by a random flying cow. Thankfully, there are some folks that might be willing to take me under their wings and teach me something.

Personally, I'd suggest the latter approach to the former (which had been bestowed by the Good Idea Fairy). Using reports and following people (Particularly Reed...) with no little to knowledge is asking to get nailed.

 

[Todd Renshaw]

To some degree, everything that's posted on ST could encourage a leech/wannabe to get themselves in over their heads out in the field. I'm guessing the vast majority of members learning the art of storm chasing find the FCST and NOW threads incredibly valuable as an addition to their own studies. (Does my forecast match other's opinions? Did I miss something important? Would my placement match others if I were there?)

Don't abandon what's great about it because of the potential for abuse.

 

[Mike Deep]

I realize I fall within the non-chaser ranks here, but perhaps it's time to further restrict who can view the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum (But NOT the Target Area as a whole). When events are over, the threads could always be moved to a publicly viewable forum for review.

 

[Adam Simone]

I couldn't believe this post when I saw it. I probably shouldn't be surprised but I am kind of surprised people would go chasing based completely off of what people were reporting or posting on stormtrack. I'm a rookie at this and am learning more and more everyday but I couldn't imagine going chasing not knowing what I was getting myself into. I look at the forecast thread everyday but basically just to learn more. I'm a competitive person and would rather intercept a tornado based on my own work instead of just following others. I don't even have this forum up when I'm chasing and I have my SN placefile off when I'm out there because it clutters up the radar. Its a shame some people want all the fame but don't want to do any of the work themselves.

 

[Jake Orosi]

How does this statement relate to a thread about wanabe chasers milking off those who put in the time?

I'm curious about this mindset. Bear in mind I'm just a spotter, not a chaser.

A severe thunderstorm is a large event that covers a large area and directly impacts anywhere from dozens (out in the boonies) to hundreds if not a few thousand people at a time. Even extremely local, transient events such as tornadoes can typically be seen from many different vantage points by any number of people when they occur.

Despite this, is there in fact a common feeling of "ownership" of particular thunderstorms or even whole events by people who, as you put it, "put in the time"? I don't ask that in a denigrating way; I imagine it's easy to feel immense pride and personal satisfaction when you crunch the numbers and develop a forecast that turns out to be spot on. But now you've driven up to a good vantage point, parked your car (safely, we assume), got out your camera, roll tape...and here comes this car up the road, parking not intimately close and certainly nowhere in your shot, but nearby anyway, and they're getting their camera out. How do you feel about that?

Let's qualify it a little more. How would you feel if:

1. It was someone who pointedly followed your little gummi-car widget on SN
2. It was another active chaser who was doing their own thing but noticed your vehicle on the road at some point and followed you, expecting you had the luck
3. It was another active chaser whose completely independent forecast arrived at the exact same conclusion (and therefore, same relative position as you)
4. It was a local resident who looked out their window, saw the approaching weather, got their camera and drove to the best nearby vantage point, which happens to be the one you chose (you picked it for a reason, didn't you?)
5. It was some random nobody who literally just happened to be driving down that road at the time, saw the weather, saw you taking photos or footage, and was inspired to get some of his own.

Would you feel different in each of those instances? And if so then how would you know, just by noticing him drive up and start taking pictures, which of those stories is his? Presuming he doesn't have the +10 Lightbar of Authority mounted on his vehicle, of course.

 

[Tim Shriver]

One only need to look at the definition of the word forecast:

I have not heard of a TV MET nor the NWS being sued for them indicating an area where a severe weather outbreak yet may happen .
So I would say it is highly unlikely, but then anyone can sue for anything. It's if they win or loose that matters.

In this world it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a general disclaimer. "This is for entertainme purposesses only, you chase/spot at
your own risk". Stupid folks please click here. Then have the link take them to the Weather Channel.

Tim

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I don't believe there is any possiblity of liablity. This reminds me of something I thought about while travelling through Yellowstone. There are folks dedicated to viewing wolves in northeast Yellowstone in Lamar Valley. They search day after day for the wolves to appear out of the most likely spot (taking the time to find out where dens are, etc.) ...and finally they appear. In the meantime people drive by and see someone sitting out somewhere with a scope and wonder what they are looking at, so they get their scopes or binoculars out and sit and watch too. This goes on until there is a gigantic crowd waiting for wolves to appear. They didn't put any work in, but they get to see the wolves just the same. I can imagine the frustration of the folks who take the time to learn everything they can about it, just to have someone show up and acheive the same end results without doing anything. Doesn't mean they have any more of a right to see them, but I can understand.

But, if they show up and happen to get killed by a wolf because they heard or read there are wolves in that area, there is no possible way the person (who waited days on end and plotted where the wolves would most likely show up) would be held liable for anything. I think the same would apply with weather.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I'm curious about this mindset. Bear in mind I'm just a spotter, not a chaser.

A severe thunderstorm is a large event that covers a large area and directly impacts anywhere from dozens (out in the boonies) to hundreds if not a few thousand people at a time. Even extremely local, transient events such as tornadoes can typically be seen from many different vantage points by any number of people when they occur.

Despite this, is there in fact a common feeling of "ownership" of particular thunderstorms or even whole events by people who, as you put it, "put in the time"? I don't ask that in a denigrating way; I imagine it's easy to feel immense pride and personal satisfaction when you crunch the numbers and develop a forecast that turns out to be spot on. But now you've driven up to a good vantage point, parked your car (safely, we assume), got out your camera, roll tape...and here comes this car up the road, parking not intimately close and certainly nowhere in your shot, but nearby anyway, and they're getting their camera out. How do you feel about that?

Let's qualify it a little more. How would you feel if:

1. It was someone who pointedly followed your little gummi-car widget on SN
2. It was another active chaser who was doing their own thing but noticed your vehicle on the road at some point and followed you, expecting you had the luck
3. It was another active chaser whose completely independent forecast arrived at the exact same conclusion (and therefore, same relative position as you)
4. It was a local resident who looked out their window, saw the approaching weather, got their camera and drove to the best nearby vantage point, which happens to be the one you chose (you picked it for a reason, didn't you?)
5. It was some random nobody who literally just happened to be driving down that road at the time, saw the weather, saw you taking photos or footage, and was inspired to get some of his own.

Would you feel different in each of those instances? And if so then how would you know, just by noticing him drive up and start taking pictures, which of those stories is his? Presuming he doesn't have the +10 Lightbar of Authority mounted on his vehicle, of course.

I think the issue more lies with people getting mad that we [and i say we as in experienced chasers] not spoon feeding them the tornadoes. To make a post like that being pissed off that none of us were holding their hand to the tornado is complete crap. We don't owe anyone anything in that regards. We have spent the time to do our research and invest thousands of dollars to put miles and experience under our belts...and when someone is going to get mad because they simply couldn't load up with technology that their allowance paid for and follow us to storms is where the issue comes from.

I generally don't care who follows me, as long as they ask politely and have a few understandings after I explain things to them...but to simply think you have the right to follow me just because you are alive without ever approaching me and asking is crap IMO.

I accept the fact that todays technology can make anyone a super star chaser in their first year out, and Ill even admit I feed the machine by posting my pics/video/forecasts online...because I want to share and help teach. We chased the other day with a gentleman from WI who emailed us saying he wanted to chase with experienced chasers to help himself learn and gain some experience. He rode along, observed, asked questions, listened and we got him his first tornado. That is the way it should be done.

As far as the topic at hand goes about it being liable...I can't see how it would and the mere thought of that makes me sick. I hate how sue happy this nation is.

 

[Wes Carter]

I'm the king of busts. I've been chasing since 2006 and have seen a grand total of 8 tornadoes and busted many more times than that. But I'm getting better at making forecasts thanks to people in this forum. The forums in question have been invaluable to me in learning how to make a forecast because I look at what people are talking about and use it as a learning tool. Actually, I do more of this on days when I cannot chase than when I can because when I can chase I try to make my own forecast and choose a target accordingly.

That being said, it pisses me off to no end that people will come in here and take advantage of such a great learning tool and not use it for that, but rather unshamefully use it as a tool to leech off of others efforts AND have the gall to complain when they don't perform to their expectations. It's indicative of a larger problem we have today: the number of people who feel they are owed something for no reason whatsoever. How in the hell can anyone feel that some of the experienced forecasters in here 'owe' them a valid forecast?

I'm all for making the target area forum even more restrictive than it is, even if it means I'm not qualified to be there. I don't use it to choose my target area, so nothing will change for me. I would be all for making it viewable to everyone AFTER the event so that we could still use it as a learning tool. We need to do something so that we don't lose any more of the people that actually add value to it.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I agree that one obvious solution, as suggested by Chip and Wes, is to tighten the restrictions on the target area part of the forum. I would even go as far as to say the entire community should come up with a 10 - 20 question multiple choice/true false/short answer aptitude test towards all aspects of severe weather and chasing. And I'm not talking about piece o' cake questions like "what are clouds made of" or "which state is in 'tornado alley'", but questions like "which of these features would you typically look for on a 500 mb chart to help initiate convection: a ridge axis, negative vorticity advection, positive vorticity advection, a warm temperature bubble" or "look at the following charts (no explanations other than labels included) and choose which area would be most likely to see severe thunderstorms: A, B, C, or D" or "you're driving north towards an eastward moving supercell; what feature would you expect to see to your left as you approach the storm: a flanking line, an overshooting top, a beaver tail, a shelf cloud"

I also think one of the best ways to avoid the situation of someone who doesn't know what they're doing attempt to follow you during a chase is to decrease your visibility. If you're driving around with lightbars, hail cages, cell amplifiers, and SKYWARN, TVN, or TWC clings on your car, you should expect someone to start following you. If you saw my car when I chase, you'd have to take a very detailed look inside to see that I'm a chaser. Granted, things like GPS units and camera mounts will still be visible, but it requires a much more detailed look to see you are a chaser.

I certainly would like to see the FCST and NOW threads remain the way they are because they are very informative for those with less knowledge and also help people bounce ideas around. However, if "n00bs" are going to take advantage of that and get themselves into trouble, then that's their own fault and no one is liable for them (assuming no written documents were signed).

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Honestly, I'm not concerned about what others do with my forecasts. I make my forecasts to organize my own thoughts and to discuss possible scenarios with other chasers. I may make an argument for why I like or don't like some particular area, but it should be self-evident that such thoughts are my own and do not represent any particular "official" forecast. Honestly, if someone wants to take my forecast at its word, and head exactly where I thought I may go (at the time I made the forecast -- like others, I tend to revise and review my forecast as the day goes on), that's their prerogative. Of course, such folks will quickly learn that my own forecasts are, at times, not very good (errr, downright bad), and they have nobody but themselves to blame if they're upset about wasting gas money or missing out on a chance to see a tornado. It may be a little different if I implicitly condoned unsafe or irresponsible behavior, but I don't...

The day I start having to worry about the liability associated with posting my personal forecast thoughts on the web is the day I stop making any public forecasts. This may sound a bit snide, but it's the truth. As Stormtrack members, I don't think we can really be expected to hold the hands of folks who have no interest in learning to forecast themselves and only want to hop in their car and blindly following some members' forecasts. This is certainly not to say that I dont' think we have some responsibility to foster a fruitful learning environment for new chasers, however. Heck, it was only 10-12 years ago that I was hanging on the words of storm chasing vets, the result of knowing little about making accurate forecasts. It was partially the result of this great forum that I learned and developed my own forecast techniques, and I see it as a responsibility to help people who are in the same situation I was in a decade ago. Heck, I'm still learning new things myself, and there will always be more to be learned!

 

[Matt Hunt]

I think it would be tough to restrict the forum, and it would hurt people who may be new to chasing, but want to see the forecast thread in order to learn. I have only been chasing for 2 years, but I feel like I have come a long way in that short amount of time, and I owe a lot of it to "practice" forecasts, and comparing my thoughts with what others post on ST. I will generally make my own forecast, or at least have the idea in my head, choose my target area, then go read the FCST thread to see if my ideas line up with others. That being said, I still read everything with a grain of salt, because I'm not even sure who is a good forecaster and who isn't, but it's just nice to compare notes. There have also been times when someone will mention something in particular that I previously had no clue how that would've affected the event. So I say don't take these threads away, and don't restrict them too much. As far as SN locations, usually I see guys spread out all over the place prior to initiation, so I don't see how this could even help someone, unless they wanted to follow one person in particular. I think there will always be those yahoo chasers that don't take the time to really learn about meteorology. I saw a great example Tue in IL, when a group of guys were looking at the updraft region of a small developing cell that wasn't even SVR warned thinking it was a rotating wall cloud. In the meantime the real tornado warned cell was right behind them.

 

[Jason Foster]

Liability occurs when you tell someone else where to go...NOT where you are.

I thing this thread could easily take some exact terms and descriptors and substitute a x, y, z, scenario and you have tons of examples.

This sounds a lot like when I shot stock imagery or photography in and around public areas. Say for example...the Cherry Blossoms here in DC. I take the time to scope out shots, get the right equipment, wait for the right lighting, etc. to get a very unique shots. However, I can't avoid the crowds...so what happens...I am taking my shots...and every Joe & Jane Doe walks up, looks at what I'm shooting, grabs their iPhone, Andoid, etc. and snaps a picture...sometimes even walking in FRONT of my camera.

There will always be a copy cat, intentional or not, but there is only an original, and just be the original. YOU will always stand out if you keep your mind original. Forecast here on ST is no different. Post away, don't worry about others. If you spend all day worrying about others...than you are just wasting your time.

 

[Bill Hark]

Although an interesting thread, I don't think there is any reason to worry about posting forecasts on Stormtrack (FCST section already restricted to members.) Although I am not a lawyer, I am a physician and liability is always a concern in my profession. I don't think someone who follows an icon on SN or uses someone's target as posted in a forecast thread could have a successful suit. In fact, I don't think The Weather Channel would have liability if Dr. Forbes states, "The chase target is xxx" and a group of chasers takes his advice and are injured. The only way that I see liability is when a chaser actively takes another chasing and commits gross negligence resulting in injuries. This could occur in a tour group and signed waivers may not protect in court. Examples could include speeding, reckless driving, drinking, driving into the tornadic circulation in a standard vehicle, crossing flooded areas and possibly core punching.

As for forecast threads, the discussion and sharing of ideas is one of the strengths of Stormtrack. People with varying degrees of experience can come together and learn. In my younger days, I learned a lot from reading forecasts from more experienced chasers and that learning has not stopped. I still find things that I overlooked in other peoples forecasts. Also, reading forecasts is enjoyable even when not chasing that day. I don't mind if some less experienced chaser learns from my forecasts. The posting of a forecast also helps in my learning and thought process. Plus, it is nice to publically choose a target and have it verify. I also don't care if some leech sees my forecast and blindly chooses my target. Going to a specific target is not going to guarantee a tornado. I general, I think we worry too much about what other chasers do. I will continue to post forecasts when I have the time, run SN from the beginning of my chase, post updates in the now section and update my Facebook with storm info. The info is out there. If someone wants to use my target, go for it. I don't care if they catch a big tornado, bust or become a debris tag. Not my concern.

Bill Hark