Forecasting on Stormtrack

[Randy Denzer]

I need to make a big suggestion to the Mods after reading this:

Thread: 4/19/11 REPORTS: IL/MO/OK/TX/AR
Member Join Date Mar 2010 Posts 7
Ok, I'm pissed I missed this one. I made it to springfield by 5:30, but nobody was posting anything in the now thread, and I had no idea where to go. Ended up heading towards pana, got a lot of hail and rain, but not much else

I would like for everyone to consider the liability that could ensue someone reading target areas and then actually chasing without knowing the first thing about chasing? Then getting hurt or killed. I know for a fact this is happening, as well as folks following SN icons.

Could they file a claim against the forum or the forecaster?

Food for thought and discussion.

 

[Marcus Hicks]

Randy your question is very valid and should be considered and discussed. I work with a local TV station and the mets will not discuss specific target areas with me for that very concern.
I don't suspect liability would be an issue unless you gave specific instructions to go to spot A and they were harmed. If they were reading your target or following your icon I think your safe. If you offer them follow you and you lead them to danger, well maybe that could be a liability issue. IMO I could be wrong.

 

[Nick Nolte]

While I agree there is inherent danger in blindly following someone into severe weather, I think proving liability would be difficult, if not impossible, for what amounts to an Act of Mother Nature, especially when they are doing it under their own cognizance, whether or not they have the appropriate knowledge level.

But, of course, I am not a lawyer

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

maybe everyone should put a disclaimer at the end of their forecasts and now discussion posts.


if im chasing i commonly see where everyone is going, plot it out on a print off and map, and then look at the forecast, and pick my own place to go. I don't want to invade on someone's chase, and wouldn't like if they did that to me.

now If I continue to chase and not see a tornado, then by golly i may just start following Reed Timmer around because the s.o.b. is a damn Tornado Whisperer if I ever saw one...lol.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I need to make a big suggestion to the Mods after reading this:

Could they file a claim against the forum or the forecaster?

Good question, Randy. I don't know if there are any legal ramifications for the consequences of consuming informaton on this site. That's a Tim question, and out of the scope of the moderators.

I would like to say that posts in the Now threads should not be relied upon for critical operations, or chase planning/strategy. I thought this went without saying, but obviously something needs to be said here. I try to do my best talking with some of the beginner chasers and new comers we have on the site, but for those who are new to chasing, Stormtrack, or just lurking on the boards, please keep in mind that this is not an official information source. The posts on here are more like a casual chat. Make sure you're getting your info from a real source like SPC, NWS, or NOAA weather radio. If you find that your chase or situational awareness is compromised because there is insufficient information on Stormtrack, you need to end your chase and get back to the basics: spotter training, studying forecasting and storm structure, understanding and practicing safe driving and chase etiquette. Forecasts and Nowcasts are intended to be insights to fellow chasers, not consumed by those who do not understand them.

I'm moving this thread out of the Bar and Grill because I believe there are some points in here that all members should see, and valid site related concerns were raised. Please keep this thread on topic, without lambasting the newbs, or the site. Thanks

 

[Steve Miller]

Forget about the potential liability, look at the # of people on the facebook threads associated with this particular issue who are pissed off in general. Quality forecasters who used to post in these forecast & nowcast threads are now doing it elsewhere or not at all because of the leach chasers coming out of the woodwork. I think ST is suffering, as is SN. Basically any vehicle for information dissemination to those who want to chase but don't want to learn how to chase will die a slow death due to this kind of BS.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I don't think FCST or NOW threads really benefit the community any longer, nor does posting forecasts on blogs or on Facebook, nor plotting one's position on SN/Imap prior to initiation. I'm feeling less and less motivated and inclined to offer information to the general public-at-large about any chase strategy.

Chase forecasting isn't all that difficult for one to learn themselves. It seems to me that on chase days, good FCST thread postings are mostly stating things that are obvious to anyone who has taken the time to 'learn the ropes', IE, placement of boundaries, incoming shortwaves/jet streaks, etc. All these posts do is allow casual enthusiasts (and I don't mean anything derogatory by that term) to benefit from the work and study of others without ever having to learn the technique themselves.

I'm all for helping chaser friends out (I benefitted significantly from the insight of a few great chasers in my earlier years), but putting good info out for the masses to consume doesn't help you or anybody. It just clogs the roads while ensuring that a new generation of chasers won't learn how to forecast for themselves. 'Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, etc"

I realize there's a desire to post a forecast so that everyone can see you were correct about a target, but I'm preferring more to seek that validation by my results at the end of a chase. Just some thoughts...

 

[Jesse Risley]

I've always believed that the purpose of a FCST thread was for chasers to discuss these forecast parameters by making their own forecast for an upcoming event. There may be the always obvious mesoscale or synoptic parameters, but sometimes we overlook something and someone else with a unique perspective can shed some light on how a SVR setup may unfold.

With that having been said, anyone can file suit against another person or persons for any given reason; America is quite the litigious society in some respects. However, that being said, I would find it hard to believe that anyone would actually win a suit or not go into such an endeavor without a high likelihood that a judge would simply dismiss the suit right away for frivolity.

This is an issue as more and more of the masses decide to fill up the tank and hunt em' a meso, but I would find it hard to believe that there would be any true civil liability unless a chaser took someone with them in the vehicle or otherwise gave express consent for someone else to follow them in the field. At that point there may well be some liability for gross negligence, even if you have them sign a waiver, but that's an entirely separate issue.

Finally, remember that individual Target Area posts are not able to be viewed by non-registered members of the general public for some of the reasons we've discussed here.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

A few months ago I was exploring some alternative forums for weather enthusiasts and came across an interesting thread. There were actually individuals on this forum discussing how you could use SN or the tornadovideos live map to tell you where you should go to find storms. From the conversation, I'm not sure if any of them had chased on their own. It was surprising to me, because here were people actually doing what I've anecdotally heard storm chasers worry about. Anyhow, kinda re-enforces why I only turn on SN for short intervals.

 

[David Drummond]

That is all you really need to chase any more. I wrote a guide on how to chase in 2011, here it is:

Chasing Tornadoes in 2011: No skills required!

1) Look at SPC, drive to the center of the risk area, if it's too big go to step 2
2) Read the reports threads on Storm Track, see who is consistently getting tornadoes.
3) Friend said person on Facebook, they will post where they are going.
4) Buy GRLevel 3 and get the Spotter Network placefile, be sure to look for the people you identified above.
5) Go to where they are, and stay close.
6) If all of the above steps fail, sign up for the TVN blog, and go where Reed Timmer is going.
7) If you still can't succeed after all of the above, you are extremely lame, so you must go the report thread on Storm Track where you can swipe tornado photos the next day, and post them on your own site/facebook/blog as your own.

 

[Chip Redmond]

I came across this site a few years ago and the idea of a FCST thread was the main reason I signed up here. For the last 4 years that I have been chasing, I am surrounded with people who aren't as educated and forecast savy as I. Personally, I don't have many people that I can talk to and be like "Yo, what is your opinion on this setup?" without blowing their mind about 'convective inhibition advection coupled with warming seven hundred millibar temperature' or something that sounds absolutely absurd to a normal person. Yea, I am educated and all with a meteorology degree (and hopefully a MS in two years *crosses fingers*) and should know what I am talking about, however, I only know so much. I am human and not perfect and that is why I post here. I like to look at others concepts on setup's and listen to their opinion. After that they would usually list their target area and explain why. Using that I double check my reasoning for my positioning and see if I overlooked something. This helps to expand my knowledge, not only on the setup but make myself a better forecaster overall.

That post on the reports thread yesterday really pushed some buttons for me (and triggered a dumb response that got me in trouble, opps ). It opened my eyes to just how crazy the public has gotten with severe weather and what ends they will go to see some action. Realizing that the amount of people like this are growing exponentially with every photo and video that gets put on the web/tv, this problem is beginning to take over. Going back and looking at the FCST threads, I see so many "what is the weather going to do here" or "could storms hit me" posts that never would of existed a few years ago. Each post is space being wasted and holding me back from a potential learning experience. Not only that, but my forecast that I entered could cause someone to actually go there (believing that I would never ever change my target area, hah) now just frustrates me to an incredibly high level. I am responsible for myself and though I may say what I am going to do, I do it for others to learn in the way that I use their own, not for a lazy person of the public with no knowledge to wander out there and get killed.

So after that small rant, I guess what I am saying (I already brought it up to Skip) is let us try to find a way to actually bring back the old target area sub-forum that would benefit us all and heck, maybe save some idiots life? I am not sure how to weed out all the people that know nothing and are leechers. It would be hard to do it with post count because that isn't everything. Obviously join date may not work since that person that posted yesterday joined over a year ago. Perhaps an essay like there used to be to join the forum? Maybe recommendations by moderators? (Although that could keep things linked to a personal level. I don't personally know most of you on here and heck, I could come across as a leecher in the eyes of some). Perhaps start a private message group? Despite all the ideas, I think this is a serious problem that we need to address right away.

In the meantime, I guess I will take my losses and just post more broad forecasts in hopes of someone not getting stupid ideas and actually being able to put a exact place on the map. It may not expand my thinking outside the box as much as I would like, but I really don't have elsewhere to go...

Chip

 

[Andy Jackson]

It is what it is. There's a cost/choice: become a media darling and have your video posted all over TWC, facebook, youtube whatever, or keep it underground. Most don't do the latter because chaser "x" decided to cash in so they should too.

 

[Steve Miller]

It is what it is. There's a cost/choice: become a media darling and have your video posted all over TWC, facebook, youtube whatever, or keep it underground. Most don't do the latter because chaser "x" decided to cash in so they should too.

How does this statement relate to a thread about wanabe chasers milking off those who put in the time? Just curious if there is a point you are making or a generalization or what.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

I am thinking it would be like me posting on FB that I was going to the zoo because it was going to be a nice day... If someone followed me there and fell into the hippo pond would I be liable?

If you are simply posting your target and forecast I would think it would be pretty hard for some fool who followed you there to get anything out of you because they got head smacked by a baseball sized hailstone or anything else. This person did not pay you for any services so it's not like you would have been required to provide a disclaimer of the inherent dangers associated with chasing your target or storm.

I would like for everyone to consider the liability that could ensue someone reading target areas and then actually chasing without knowing the first thing about chasing? Then getting hurt or killed. I know for a fact this is happening, as well as folks following SN icons.

Could they file a claim against the forum or the forecaster?

Food for thought and discussion.

 

[Robert Dewey]

My main reason for posting forecasts was to lay out and organize my thoughts. Back in the '01-04' time frame, before blogging and social networking were a huge deal, I'd open up a *.doc and write my thoughts in journal format on interesting days... and then follow up with how it verified. I find writing out a forecast helps big time.

When I saw ST and the Target Area, I thought it was a perfect fit. Not only could I continue to write out my thoughts... but I could learn from others and compare my forecasting techniques.

As far as liability issue... it's definitely an interesting thought, but not something that will keep me up at night.