First Good Midwest Chase on The Way?

[Mike Hollingshead]

Actually it doesn't have to look like crap moving that far east..and maybe the territory doesn't have to suck....and it could still be early enough. Hope is slowly coming back. If only IL would get rid of the darn snow.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I can recall growing up in Kentucky, when all the storms were in Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska, and now after living in Oklahoma the past 15 years, then it seemed like outbreaks were hard to come by in the southern plains.

It sure would be nice if things would return to their "normals," whatever that is anymore? If this does verify, it will be a WHALE of a way to kick off the 2007 storm season! It figures, I move to WA and now look out central and southern plains! (sigh)

 

[Gene Moore]

The strong warm air advection off the surface might not care a whole hell of a lot about the snow cover. The depth of the cold air could be pretty thin in some areas that still have snow on the ground. I keep wondering what could happen in the southern fringes of that snow cover. Perhaps some fognadoes/snownadoes?

When strong warm air advection hits a snowfield a couple of changes occur. First, fog and very low stratus clouds.....also the wind tends to back (become more easterly and generally slows. Although that might not happen in this case because it's so close to a strong surface low. On occasion when the jet flow is aligned close to the pattern of the snow it can produce a warm frontal boundary. Additionally, very cold and damp ground where snow had recently melted will act about the same as snow covered ground. As for snownadoes - if you photograph one you won't be the first. One was captured at Perryton TX in the 1940's as the funnel moved across a snow field and turned white. I saw the old black and white image of the tornado published in a weather book, although it was dark at the time of the shot.....might be in Significant-Tornadoes also.

I like the second system that follows although this first one quickly gains winter characteristics and that may mess up number two coming across Oklahoma.

Gene Moore

 

[Jim Tang]

Sometimes stratus is not a bad thing. Many outbreaks I've noticed thick cloudcover over the warm sector. Perhaps this keeps winds backed and prevents the dewpoints from mixing out. Now, if rather than stratus, it was junk convection blocking moisture transport further north, then I agree, it would be detrimental to severe wx possibilities.

In strong, dynamic wintertime setups such as this one, moisture and dynamics are far more important than instability. Not saying instability isn't important, but extensive cloudcover could be an advantage, as long as it breaks off right before the main show begins.

I still believe this has serious potential for a major outbreak. Plains late on the 23rd, Miss. R. Valley on the 24th.

As for a possible second system, I strongly believe that tonight's GFS run is flawed and the second system will remain weak, suppressed by the first system.

 

[Tom Stefanac]

Guys, please stop destroying my dreams!

I have 3-5 days to make a decision as to whether or not I should go up north for one of those "family get-togethers". The GFS isn't helping any by pushing the track around 250 miles with each run... GFS is looking pretty good for the MS Valley and parts of the Great Lakes, but am I willing to stay home while everyone else has fun, just to experience the typical Great Lakes bust? Or should I head north and experience a 980MB low as it passes over with possible blizzard conditions?

There's such a wide range of possibilities; Southern MI could be looking at nothing, a blizzard, an ice storm, a flood event, or an outbreak of severe thunderstorms (non-event/flooding being of a higher probability). If I go north, the choices are; blizzard, ice storm, wind storm, or heavy rain event. Once I commit, I'm stuck.

My mind is smoking right now... hopefully I can make the right decision lol

I say stick with the GL bust, at least you know you are going to bust so it will not be all that bad.

 

[Karen Politte]

I like the second system that follows although this first one quickly gains winter characteristics and that may mess up number two coming across Oklahoma.

Gene Moore

I think what Gene says here is important. Looking out into wonderland on the GFS shows another pacific trough setting up directly behind this weekend's potential. While it's so far out right now........glancing at the GFS screams one thing to me - just look at those 70+Tds hanging out in the central Gulf - just waiting for us. Perhaps one of these early spring systems can tap that real, deep moisture - then it'd be look out Midwest!

Seriosuly though - I think all of this optimistic forecasting for the first semi-chaseable genuine severe event of the year is perfectly normal. People WANT to forecast for something exciting as much as they want to chase it. Let's just all get along and try and understand that everybody's just more than a little bit excited about this upcoming system - after all, it heralds spring!!

For me.......it's time to go to work. But I'll be looking out lens tissue in the evenings, dusting off my SLR and thawing out some film. It's what the beginning of the season's all about!!!

KL

 

[Scott Roberts]

It'll be interesting to see the reaction in the forecast thread when GFS pulls the maneuver it's been pulling since last spring, of the system dropping off the map almost entirely on the morning run 3 days out!

(This is one I'd be glad to be wrong about...and there does appear to be some pretty good agreement with other models -- still, if GFS plays true to form, the reaction will be interesting to see..)

 

[Dave Gallaher]

A slight threadjack to speak of the southern end of this system, as posited here: I will be leaving north Alabama on Saturday, the day the system is progged to arrive here, to work outdoors at New Smyrna Beach, Florida on Sunday, the day the system is due to arrive there. Besides the potential of being put out of a job on Sunday, all my chase opportunity for this system will be of a chance-intercept nature. Frustrating...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm loving that 18z gfs today. I hope that is the end of its slowing, if it settles into something like it shows now.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

As a friendly reminder, members are encouraged to post in the relevant FCST threads when making forecasts. Specific forecasts are not allowed in Weather and Chasing, but we do allow "long-term" forecasts (generally >7 days) since details and specifics are often impossible to determine at that timeframe (i.e. we allow the "pattern change coming in a couple of weeks?"-type of thread). Casual conversation about the general pattern change is okay in the medium and long term, but all are encouraged to post their forecast thoughts in the relevant FCST thread.

2/23/07 FCST: OK / TX
[URL="http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11081"]2/24/07 FCST: OH/KY/TN/IA/KS/MO/TX/LA/OK/IL/AR[/url]

 

[Bill Tabor]

Lets just say I'm skeptical of the GFS after what it just did concerning the last 7 days and the 21st. Complete change. So will probably be amazing if it actually does something similar to what todays run is showing. Probably something is coming . The question is what?

 

[Robert Dewey]

I agree with Mike... The 18Z looks fine to me. I'm pretty sold on heading up north with the rest of the family now that things seem to be slowing down / winding up westward. If the current 12Z/18Z GFS verified, I'd be looking at +18 inches of snow with blizzard (or near-blizzard) conditions near the WI/MI border. That's nothing new up there, but it would be new to me

In terms of SVR, I think the southern MI will miss out on this one - it'll be a heavy rain event (or perhaps even a dryslotted non-event). I think once the system closes off and occludes, the SVR threat will calm down, especially east of the MS river (and north of TN).

 

[Dick McGowan]

I like tonight's run and hopefully it will stay that way for the days to come. If it stays in Kansas, I'll chase it, if it's further south, I'll just wait for the next setup. It sure is exciting thinking of an opportunity this early though!

 

[Donald Dudenhoeffer]

Hi all!!
Hope you don't mind, but I'm just learning all this, but I figured I would put my 2 cents worth in
Although while living in Kansas, and there was a tornado reported in the southern part of of the state in January last year,,,, and while I lived in Missouri for most of my life and have heard on the news back then of a tornado turning "snow-white", do you think there will be enought daytime heating or instability to merit the fact that there maybe a squall line or SC TS to develop to where there maybe a tornado might delelop?
Don't mean to step on toes or amything, please understand!! I'm learning all this!!
Thanks
Don

 

[Jeff Miller]

Welcome to the board, Donald, we're glad you have come here to learn, we are more than happy to help new people understand the finer points of meteorology.

there will be what appears to be the possibility of tornadoes, yes, in Kansas, if the pattern holds true. The tornadoes will be cold core, and dependant on a lot of different paramaters. One thing to keep in mind is that the "type" or "appearance" of the tornado can never be pre-determined in advance -- though the type of tornadoes common with this sort of system - cold core tornadoes -- generally have a more slender, cone like appearance and can be visually nice though weaker in general than non cold core tornadoes.

I would advise you to chase with someone experienced before you attempt to chase this setup. Cold cores can be a bear, and even the most experienced chasers have thrown their hands up in frustration at cold core setups.

Again, welcome to Stormtrack, we hope you learn plenty with us. Be safe.