Fall season approaching

[Marcus Diaz]

If there's a Fall season this year, any guesses on what you expect? Could we possibly get more setups like 11-7-11, 10-4-13, or 11-7-13? The chances are always there for such a day. I for one am hoping there's a couple of good chases we can squeeze out of Fall. I really enjoy the mini-season we can sometimes have. Discuss anything pertaining to the Fall season 2014 ITT.

 

[Taylor Wright]

It looks like a possibly negatively tilted trough could impact the northern plains next week, interacting with some zonal flow over Nebraska. Mid-level flow isn't particularly impressive. Might get a few setups up there but nothing within my reach.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Also, my experience with tropical storms is very limited, but what exactly could be made of the upper low over SW California? Hopefully this could bring some much needed rain over there.

 

[Stan Rose]

Yeah, forget about fall, that trough next week may be better than anything you can expect from fall. I could see some decent setups late in the week into next weekend. Mid-level flow is pretty impressive for August. The models are really struggling though between what to do with the southern cut-off and that tropical system further south. Still, it's August so a northern setup seems reasonable...

 

[Mike Marz]

Wednesday and Friday both look interesting to me this upcoming week... wouldn't be surprised to see another Coleridge type monster on Wednesday evening...http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...iew=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

 

[Marcus Diaz]

So a monster, almost negatively tilted trough will be (and currently is) affecting the country. The time between Monday-Wednesday look promising from the southern and central Plains. Any thoughts without getting a day specific thread started?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Keeping my eye on it, but hard to get excited because the GFS keeps flip-flopping between looking pretty good, and looking like the same scenario we've seen basically this whole year apart from June 16-18. You know, where the trough shears out as it crosses the Plains/Midwest and the surface system lifts almost due north into Canada, then the trough amplifies once it's too far east.

 

[James Gustina]

The GFS is ridiculously inconsistent. The 00Z just ran the dryline through the SPS like a bat out of hell and the main SFC low is halfway into Manitoba with a weak 1004 SFC cyclone just barely affecting SFC winds.

I'm not particularly encouraged by this system at the moment, but another tropical system/cutoff low may change that going further into October.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Currently a barotropic cutoff vortex centered over Nevada. Not since a week or so ago has the GFS suggested it would provide any sort of interesting weather in the central US. It's the trough predicted to dig into the western US to flush out that cutoff that looks more interesting. Trends seem to indicate a nearly neutral tilt trough setting up over the Front Range by the middle of the week. However, the 12Z GFS this morning suggested only marginal ingredients for severe weather lining up appropriately on Wednesday.

 

[James Gustina]

The NAM is being surprisingly more optimistic about the deepening SFC low in southwest Kansas as well as not removing the sfc features from the main forcing. GFS and Euro still are a bit off timing wise but it's got my attention at the very least.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Not expecting much out of this system. The pattern is too stagnant and amplified. The northern stream bolts into canada while pinching a loaf that drops southeast into Oklahoma before ejecting out over the midwest. Those setups have never panned out well. Wednesday may hold some marginal potential for the local residents, but nothing that looks worth chasing for me. Looks like zonal to NW flow after that.

If fall throws us a quality bone, it wont be anytime in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Shane Adams]

There really isn't a "Fall season". Even in years when great fall events happened, they were one-offs. I know a lot of newbs will scream about the past few years up north, but traditionally the "Fall season" is one great event displaced every 4-5 years on average. Maybe a better way to convey what I'm talking about is, nobody worth their salt ever RELIES on Fall to produce. Most of the time, if you stunk it up from Jan-Aug, you're screwed.

 

[James Gustina]

It only really came through for me the past two seasons and unfortunately I'm having to hope for a third because I really did not have a great season due to all the March/April/May setups I chased being moisture-deprived garbage.

 

[James Gustina]

Looks like the hype train for the iffy chance at tropical storm Simon getting drawn into the mid-level flow and swinging out of NM Thursday has started. I personally don't see it and the ECMWF doesn't even have Simon in the domain as of the 12Z run so far as I can tell. GFS has the front from hell and a really, really deep SFC cyclone squatting over NW OK but with the best low-level shear displaced way east. Color me unimpressed.

 

[James Gustina]

Just to kind of throw something into the hat since it's so far out and looks eh, pretty amplified trough being progged by the ECMWF to come swinging through the Great Plains Saturday/Sunday. The biggest wrench thrown into this is that moisture looks like it's gonna get totally blasted back by another front after the one rolling through today. The dynamics look great, but I'm not so optimistic that moisture will creep out of the low-50s this weekend.