Dec 18-22 Potential Winter Wx Event

[Karen Politte]

This system is so far out and winter wx gives us SO many notorious problems forecasting it that I think we would know a lot more if we waited until after this weekend. As of now - according to just the one run of the GFS - it looks like an all-rain event for anyone south of KS.

KL

 

[Shane Adams]

Look at the amount of spread in the ensemble GFS - it amazes me that people even think to get specific on placement when there is so much uncertainty... It is an absolute waste of time to make long range forecasts if you only look at one slice of the GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/mslpensmnP2.2006121412.html

There's a thing called "tact". I suggest you acqaint yourself with it.

I overlook a lot of these replies from you, but Rocky is the nicest guy you'll ever meet, and I can't sit here and watch you rake him over the coals on one of your typical, anal, angst-ridden shots.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Seriously folks... Play nice! There's no reason to get chippy with other members. If you don't agree with someone's opinion, there's no need to become even the tiniest bit belligerent. Nobody should be too critical with anyone else, unless you can prove yourself infallible. Remaining cautious over a potential event that is seeing very high model spread is prudent in most cases. Regardless, let's not get too critical of each other.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I agree 100% with Rob in regards to using the ensembles. The truth is, the GFS is only ONE run of the entire ensemble suite... Why limit yourself to just one run? Most people don't know about ensembles (or even how to interpret them), so passing on that information is helpful.

I don't see any "coal raking" going on (at least from Rob), so either the posts have been deleted or I'm completely missing something (i.e. a personal grudge between members). Rocky took Rob's words as advice, just like everyone should...

Don't rake coals where there isn't a fire - you'll only make things worse.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

No more posts about 'coal raking'. All discussion in this thread must pertain to the topic of the thread. Any posts that do not address the topic of the thread will be deleted.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Looks like some things are starting to gain some consistency through the latest runs. Looks like the firing line for the heaviest snows (as of now) would be from North Platte-Kearney-G.I. and points northeast from there. Some thoughts from OAX.....

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=OAX&product=AFD&issuedby=OAX&glossary=1&format=ci

Personally, I'm hoping that Low tracks further south. Why I'm cheering for a winter storm is probably only understood by the people who frequent a board like this.

MODS: is this a Chase Forecasts: FCST thread yet?

 

[Mark Farnik]

I agree with J.B., the models are coming into much better agreement now, so that should throw some much needed water on the aforementioned coals, thankfully.
This morning's AFD from BOU has some interesting thoughts in regard to the potential storm:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=BOU&product=AFD&issuedby=BOU

If the models continue to be as consistent as they were for this morning's run over the next couple days, it would be a fair assumption to say a significant snowstorm will hit the Front Range, High Plains and Central Plains beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting into Thursday afternoon. It's too early to be precise on accumulation amounts, but given the amount of moisture this storm will have to work with and the forecast favorable upper air dynamics, I think localized storm totals in excess of a foot are a distinct possibility. The area that is appearing to be favored by the models to see this type of heavy accumulation is the plains of northeastern CO, eastern WY, and the NE Panhandle, and then areas north of I-80 further east. This could be a major headache for holiday travelers trying to fly out of Denver or Omaha or drive on I-80, I-25, I-70 or I-76 in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.
I'm REALLY hoping this pans out, as we need the moisture VERY badly. We've only had a measly 5 inches of snow since October.
And besides, I love a white Christmas as much as the next guy.
All I can say is this: Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I forgot to add the dates to my last fcst post... the possibility of a white christmas is due to the models projecting a snow/ice event from Sunday Dec 24th to Tue. the 26th. My apologies.

Rocky&family

 

[Jason Boggs]

It's not looking pretty here in Amarillo. We are already in a winter storm watch and ice accumulations could reach up to an inch before it's all said and done. Not to mention a possibility of sleet along with 2-4 inches of snow. I will probably be busy shooting video for the station on Tue. and Wed. so I should have some good footage for all to see.

 

[guest]

While I haven't been watching this system with dedication, I have to say I think Mark might be correct about CO and to our east/northeast. Figures, since I'm supposed to fly out of DIA on Wednesday evening, I'm not feeling all too warm and fuzzy about it. Although the models are converging, the situation is complex, with a broad region affected by this system. If the NAM is correct, the areas indicated by Mark look like they will receive ample snowfall. Might even extend that region into W KS and SD. Also I think Jason might be right too, as models "converge", as it looks likely that there will be a corridor of heavy freezing rain/sleet through the TX panhandle. Now, how much snow will actually fall near the front range, in between the mountain maximum and the plains maximum? Seems the speed of this system may prevent prolonged deep upslope along the front range, keeping the snow totals somewhat modest in our area, thankfully in my selfish situation. But just an extra 12 hours of upslope winds around 700 mb could keep us stuck at the airport, and just a little change in the model could produce just that.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Given that the event has neared, further discussion of the winter precipitation possibilities should take place in the new FCST thread for the event (HERE).