As a note, that, as we did with the past system, winter precipitation can classify as a "significant precipitation event" and, thus, can be discussed in a FCST and NOW thread in the Chase Forecast forum. Also, for future reference:
Chase Forecast Forum rules said:
(9) Chase topics spanning multiple or ambiguous dates are prohibited, such as "FCST: This Weekend". Map Room is chronologically organized and is dependent on exact dates. Pick the most representative calendar date and post your message there. Commit to a date, and if it changes you can always move to another thread or start a new one.
I normally use the PM system to address issues such as this, but I figure we may have several more winter storms through the next few months, so I'll mention this to all.
This topic will pertain to the WINTER WEATHER aspect of the event. If a convective storm (i.e. deep moist convection that we typically chase) threat develops with this system, then a new FCST thread should be opened to address that threat. We typically prefer to use a thread in Weather and Chasing for events that are a good deal into the future (e.g. >5-7 days), since the forecast error potential is great. For example, the "pattern change coming?"-type of threads are allowed in the W&C forum, since date and event specifics cannot be addressed with much confidence a week or more in advance. In this particular case, we'll keep this discussion in this FCST thread since most models indicate a strong, high-amplitude upper-level trough and low-level cold front making their way into the central US next week (implying the potential for a significant surface cyclone).
The date chosen for the thread is based on the 12z GFS run from this morning, which shows a strong ~985mb low over the Great Lakes by 21/12z, with the threat for heavy snow from the central plains to the western Great Lakes.
