Chase Case #6 (2010 Version)

I like MDs that talk about a possible tornado watch. I'm gonna hit Springfield, MO at 1645z and head on up hwy 65 towards Sedalia. should be near Warsaw, MO at 18z
 
Moving from Unionville, MO to Columbia, MO. Should be there by 20z. Based on the satellite data, I'm guessing storms are going to fire in SW MO and race NE. I think the mid level trough and jet max moving in will help trigger things... especially with that CAA overspreading the area at 500mb. Looks like there might be a slight cap based on a modified SGF sounding. Although sfc temps have risen to around 20C, things have also warmed up a tad around 850-700mb. Either way, I think the shortwave will be strong enough to overcome this.
 
Going to continue my southeast movement since the warm front isn't going to make it much further north. Was easily in Decatur City, Iowa by 16Z and plan to be in Brookfield, MO by 18Z. I like the clearing to my south.
 
I'm getting concerned about cloud cover burning off in time for passage of the triple point and afternoon heating here in southeast IA. The composite map shows the low moving almost dead east. However, when I marked up the surface map I still see a northern component to it. I'm probably missing something in that, but I think the low and the WF are still advancing northward a bit. I'll be moving southwest to Milton, IA

13Z Surface Markup
16Z Surface Markup
 
Looks like the cold front will be the main player. The warm front looks like its going to be reenforced by the heavy cloud cover to the north and will only inch further north. Lots of energy rounding the base of the trough. Storms speeds might be rather fast and that cold front might surge so I want to be well downstream. I'm moving southeast to Keokuk, IA. I should be there by 19z.
 
Don't know if I'll be waiting around for Skip by 19Z, but I don't see any reason to move a/o 16Z from Keokuk, IA. The severe dynamics seem to be translating a bit north of east toward me at a good clip of 40 kts. or so and I don't want to be too far west or south and get run over. I'm with the consensus that the wf isn't going to make it too much farther north during the day.
 
I am dropping southeast to Lancaster, MO. My game plan at this point is to hang around in the vicinity of the warm front along the 850 thermal/moisture axis.
 
Back
Top