CHASE CASE 4

[Scott Hammel]

I'm going to drop S down to Garden City. Looks like I'm finally getting some clearing which I desperately needed...

 

[Matt Gingery]

19Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

SPC HATCH TORNADO THREAT

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SWWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF TX AND OK AND INTO MUCH OF NM...

...SRN ROCKIES/WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
CONVECTION IS INCREASING ATTM ACROSS ERN AZ...NM AND THE NRN HALF OF
FAR W TX...AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION ATOP RELATIVELY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. MEAN-LAYER
CAPE NOW RANGES FROM 500 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NM TO 1500 J/KG OVER SERN
NM. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN MUCH WEAKER ACROSS ERN AZ DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN NM EWD IS YIELDING AN
EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING QG FORCING -- PARTICULARLY AFTER DARK AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES -- SPREADS EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS THIS
REGION.

WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS NM AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
THREATS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
FROM SERN NM EWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF TX AS
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD INTO CENTRAL
NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STRONG ASCENT PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM.

...KS/SRN NEB INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF KS AND INTO
SRN NEB...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S HAS RESULTED IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG
ACROSS NRN KS TO 2000 J/KG NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.

STORMS NOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS
OF SWRN KS...WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND N OF W-E FRONT
OVER NRN KS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINING SW OF THIS
AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL -- AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT -- WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO W KANSAS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED......E CNTRL AND SE NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF SW TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD 21Z.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
WEAKENING IN WARMING/MOISTENING UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS WEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL. AND...AS MIXED
LAYER CAPE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS THROUGH THE
19-21Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS IN STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...IT
SEEMS THAT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RISK FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES SEEMS TO EXIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL
LATER...FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TEXAS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN SONORA. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SCT TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE
ANIMAS MTNS IN HIDALGO COUNTY TO THE MIMBRES MTNS IN NRN LUNA AND
WRN SIERRA COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON /MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG/...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY RECENT ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES FROM EL PASO RADAR.
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS /PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS AND SURFACE
OBS/...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. WITH
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT
250 MB JET...OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS MAY TEND TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OVER TIME.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SATELLITE/RADAR

19Z S PLAINS RADAR: http://i45.tinypic.com/symbl4.gif

19Z S PLAINS VISIBLE: http://i46.tinypic.com/2z50kjr.jpg

CONUS VISIBLE: http://i46.tinypic.com/2j16jw1.jpg

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Storm popped to the west I think I will hang in Tatum for a little while longer and see what else develops.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Matt, you've got Verne Carlson sitting in both Amarillo and Tatum. That's a pretty neat trick, and I need Verne to show me how he does it since I can see some real advantages to being in two places at once. But just in case it's a mistake: last I knew, Verne made it to Tatum, NM, before I did. You might want to check why you've got an extra Verne sitting up there in Amarillo, and probably delete that icon.

ACTUALLY I THINK VERNE TAKES CARE OF HIS OWN POSITION ON THE WAYFARING MAP THROUGH HIS ACCOUNT. I WILL SEE IF I CAN DELETE ONE OF THEM

 

[Danny Neal]

From Clovis I am going to make the 2 hour 45 minute drive to Denver City, TX. I will take the TX route as I can reposition back north and intercept anything that may develop in NM further north.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Biting the bullet and leaving Roswell heading east towards Tatum also. Probably hung around here too long...

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Ugh...sfc winds going to crap up here in KS...looks like I should have jetted southwest after the 12z came out afterall. I guess i'll meander down to Guymon,OK to sample these storms coming up from the panhandle.

 

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK​

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NEW MEXICO
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF EL
PASO TEXAS TO 100 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICO.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING NEWD TOWARD SRN NM. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S...AND CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN CLEAR AREAS WILL DESTABILIZE
FURTHER WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING

 

[Patrick Martin]

I caught up with Bob Hartig and tossing the frisbee around and listening to him jam on his sax. For better or worse, I'm going to hang in Clovis, NM for the time being. I've been questioning throughout this chase the logic of abandoning the KS play, so I'm going to commit to the northern end of the mod risk area...at least for now.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Hey, Patrick, you and I have got one heck of a Frisbee game going on, tossing that disc back and forth between Clovis, where you're at, and Tatum, where I'm hanging out! Kurt Hulst is on his way down here. Why don't you join us and shorten the distance? My throwing arm is feeling the strain. Though frankly, Clovis looks good, too. At this point, I think it's a waiting game.

 

[Verne Carlson]

2" hail - looks like I'll get to test out the Rhino! Expect that a Red box will be issued soon east of the blue box.

 

[Danny Neal]

On my way down to Denver City I decided to stop in Morton,TX (an hour into my trip so that would be 20z) and re-evaluate. I can make it back to Clovis in an hour if something decides to get kicking or I can make it down to Denver City in 90 minutes. Will sit here for a while

 

[Jason Boggs]

Due to the latest radar composite, I know what day this is. I'm headed back home to nowcast for some people.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm sitting under a convection killing shield of clouds that I don't think are going to move. I'm now fully abandoning the eastern target and gunning for W/SW TX. Heading for Brownfield, TX and should be there by 21Z.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Still sitting in Brownfield. Hoping for cells to develop to the southwest so I can get into position as they mature. It's a waiting game at this point.