19Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC HATCH TORNADO THREAT
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SWWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF TX AND OK AND INTO MUCH OF NM...
...SRN ROCKIES/WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
CONVECTION IS INCREASING ATTM ACROSS ERN AZ...NM AND THE NRN HALF OF
FAR W TX...AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION ATOP RELATIVELY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. MEAN-LAYER
CAPE NOW RANGES FROM 500 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NM TO 1500 J/KG OVER SERN
NM. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN MUCH WEAKER ACROSS ERN AZ DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN NM EWD IS YIELDING AN
EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING QG FORCING -- PARTICULARLY AFTER DARK AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES -- SPREADS EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS THIS
REGION.
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS NM AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
THREATS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
FROM SERN NM EWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF TX AS
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD INTO CENTRAL
NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STRONG ASCENT PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM.
...KS/SRN NEB INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF KS AND INTO
SRN NEB...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S HAS RESULTED IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG
ACROSS NRN KS TO 2000 J/KG NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
STORMS NOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS
OF SWRN KS...WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND N OF W-E FRONT
OVER NRN KS -- AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINING SW OF THIS
AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL -- AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT -- WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO W KANSAS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED......E CNTRL AND SE NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF SW TX...
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD 21Z.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
WEAKENING IN WARMING/MOISTENING UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS WEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL. AND...AS MIXED
LAYER CAPE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS THROUGH THE
19-21Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS IN STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...IT
SEEMS THAT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RISK FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES SEEMS TO EXIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL
LATER...FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TEXAS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN SONORA. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
SCT TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE
ANIMAS MTNS IN HIDALGO COUNTY TO THE MIMBRES MTNS IN NRN LUNA AND
WRN SIERRA COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON /MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG/...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY RECENT ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES FROM EL PASO RADAR.
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS /PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS AND SURFACE
OBS/...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. WITH
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT
250 MB JET...OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS MAY TEND TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OVER TIME.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SATELLITE/RADAR
19Z S PLAINS RADAR: http://i45.tinypic.com/symbl4.gif
19Z S PLAINS VISIBLE: http://i46.tinypic.com/2z50kjr.jpg
CONUS VISIBLE: http://i46.tinypic.com/2j16jw1.jpg