CHASE CASE 4

[jaredleighton]

Got the 15 Z update as I'm heading through Great Bend, KS. Things are a little farther south than I originally thought so am a little behind the curve. Gonna blow through Dodge and get to Boise City, OK hopefully by 20-21Z. Then I'll head south out of BC and check out the dry line. We'll see how far south I can get before things go off, but with the WF near the KS/OK border I think there could be a play in the Ok/Tx panhandle. Gonna race south, but with caution. For location purposes go ahead and put me at Boise City, OK for now.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I are still on the road passing through Amarillo towards Lovington, NM still, nothing really has changed.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I was just outside of Stratford, TX when the 15z came in, and am now dropping south to Clovis, NM. It's going to be right around 18z before I pull into town.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Coming back to this a bit late. Based on the 12z data I'd gun it to Clovis, NM to get ready for supercells to fire relatively early off of the dryline and upslope.

I don't want to be any further south so I can be in good position for storms firing to my southwest. I'll likely drop just a bit further south once storms fire and catch the best looking cell, but I want to stay in cell coverage in Clovis for now so I have data until storms fire.

 

[Danny Neal]

I am still sitting in Clovis, NM. Been here a while and kinda like the serenity of it all..... Noticing some SN icons moving my way Will be sitting at a local gas station if y'all need to kill time before the show begins feel free to join me!

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I don't want to get too far south or west in order to have a bit of head start on any storms that develop, but I'm going to move down to Brownfield, TX to await further data.

 

[CZandbergen]

Missed the 12Z data last night, but I would have been heading south to Plains, TX based on the 12Z data and the 15Z data would have me making no adjustments. That should put me in Plains at about 18Z.

 

[Matt Gingery]

17Z CONVECTIVE UPDATE​

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS/EXTREME SRN
CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...


THE PRIMARY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOSED LOW IS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE BAJA SPUR...BUT A 50-70+ KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB
JET STREAK IS ALREADY NOSING NORTHEAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WHILE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...STORMS
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT
REGION OF THE SPEED MAXIMUM. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING NEAR ZONE
OF STRONGEST 700 MB WARM ADVECTION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE LIFTING IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 19-21Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THE PRIMARY CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN BASED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Driving from AMA to LBB, waiting for the 2000Z.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Liking where I'm at in Brownfield for the moment. If things clear out as I expect over SE New Mexico, should have a fairly good chance of development.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Realistically, I don't think I would have made it down to the southern target after spending the night in Wichita. So, i'll play this warm front in KS and hope for the best. If I were south with everyone else I'd definately be eyeing any OFBs. For now, I guess i'll start heading west to Dodge City, KS then figure out where i'll head after that based on the 18z.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Sitting here in Lubbock,Tx, I'm ready to take a look at the surface maps.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I've found myself a good turnout between Clovis and Tatum, NM and am seeing some clearing to my west and rumbles of thunder to the north. I'm sure once things initiate I'll be chasing back north and east from here.

 

[Matt Gingery]

16Z SATELLITE/RADAR UPDATE​

VISIBLE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/2csc31g.jpg

CONUS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2qal661.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/o79gcm.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/1zybvus.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/fm70oz.gif

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/110avl0.gif

SEVERE WEATHER

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 17Z FOR RANDALL AND POTTER COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT 1645Z NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE STORM 5 MI SW OF AMARILLO MOVING NE AT 25MPH. AT 1641Z 1" HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE SW SIDE OF AMARILLO. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 60MPH WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES, THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

 

[Verne Carlson]

No change still hanging out in Tatum, NM - this mornings convection, I'm hoping, will push an outflow boundary this way and reinforce the warm front in the area.