CHASE CASE 4

[Randall Cooper]

By the way Matt,
The link that you gave to the wayfaring map... if a person does not have a wayfaring account they cant see it. If they do have an account they can go in and edit the positions and such of all the waypoints. Just thought I would point it out.

 

[Brian Stertz]

12z data has me in a quandry. I'll remain here up on the Caprock in Lubbock but am eyeing the BGS area for maybe a place to relocate. I'll keep monitoring data trends..

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm not a big fan of the thermodynamics in the TX PH and NM, but upslope flow sure can bring magic on the high plains. I'm going to split the difference with the better thermodynamics and less of a cap to the east and target Hollis, OK early. If I decide to move west, I have Highways 62, 256, and 82 to get west and southwest in a hurry.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I am going to make the five hour drive from Woodward to Littlefield, TX checking data updates on the way.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am leaving Wichita Falls and I am headed to Lubbock. From there I may drop southwest to Hobbs, NM. I will evaluate the situation in Lubbock before I commit to any one direction.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I are blasting south out of Dodge City and am heading towards an initial target of Lovington, NM.

 

[Wes Carter]

Well, trying to stick to real life and how things would work, I drove almost all night to get to OKC and have to get a cat nap before doing anything. I'm going to catnap in the back seat of my truck in the Wal Mart parking lot then head to Sayre, OK and reevaluate. Although things look better in the hatched area, they really don't look bad in Western OK either. The low level jet looks good and there is decent shear and I think that with the clear skies there the daytime heating will do a lot of good. At least to my relatively inexperienced eye it does.

 

[Matt Gingery]

THE WAYFARING SHOULD WORK NOW. I HAD SOME TECH ISSUES AND WAS SIGNED OUT. I AM SIGNED INTO WAYFARING NOW, SO LET ME KNOW IF IT DOESN'T WORK.

MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60572

 

[David Wolfson]

The map works fine, Matt. Thanks again for all the work you're putting in. BTW I am still asleep in Hobbs, NM, but not on the map yet. There's someone in Lubbock named David Wolfsen -- no relation....

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm too far out of position for the NM/TX play and it looks damn enticing, so I think from Wakeeney I'm going to take a gamble on the northern play and head up to Lexington, NE. At least if I bust, I'll have a shorter drive back home!

 

[Matt Gingery]

15Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i47.tinypic.com/1gjeh1.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/205qufa.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/t53f2u.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/f40niv.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/rsflgg.gif

N PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2qnclls.gif

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2cpxcmu.gif

SURFACE PLOTS

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/347gy8o.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/24e9yww.gif

SOUTHWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/fncjd0.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/14sjjg6.gif

15Z SYNOPTIC: http://i48.tinypic.com/688vm8.gif

15Z WIND PROFILER: http://i47.tinypic.com/9s9e7l.gif

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN NM...SWRN AND
WEST-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NM AND THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SRN NM INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NRN GULF OF CA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD
LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING NEWD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK /70 KT AT 500 MB
AND 110 KT AT 250 MB/ LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ERN NM. SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SERN CO INTO SWRN TX WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT
SURGES EWD ACROSS ERN NM REACHING WRN TX LATE TONIGHT.

DEW POINT GRADIENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX
AND POSSIBLY SERN NM IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING AND
DRY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK ALOFT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WRN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DIVERGING SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
EXPECTED CONTINUED SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
TRANSPECOS REGION INTO SERN NM...WE ANTICIPATE MOISTURE TO REMAIN
FARTHER WEST THAN INDICATED BY 12Z NAM AND 09Z NAMKF CONTROL RUN
FROM SREF. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER WRN
PARTS OF SWRN TX AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z EPZ SOUNDING.

GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD THEN NEWD WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXHIBITED ON 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN NM AND
SWRN TX ALLOW STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OVER ERN NM TO NEAR 60
IN WEST TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT
CONVECTION FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NWD/NNEWD WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL
AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.... NEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN NM EWD INTO
PARTS OF WRN TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6
KM INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
SPREAD NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER
SWRN TX/SERN NM AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER
WRN TX WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHILE MAINTAINING MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL INCLUDING A FEW
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE OVERNIGHT STORMS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD TOWARD A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM ERN CO ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER /30-40 KT AT 500 MB/ THAN
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE UPPER LOW...WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL ENHANCE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL CONTINUING TONIGHT.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm still at home, but at lunch, me and my chase partner will be spending the day in Clovis, NM waiting for initiation.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Guess I missed a few updates. At this point I've left Amarillo and headed toward Brownfield, TX. Looks like some HCR's developing in the area with the only clearing around. Also looks like a little tongue of moisture making its way from Abilene up toward Plains, TX.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm moving to Lubbock,Tx, better dews down there.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Uggh, I'm having a difficult time with this northern target. I've readjusted and have dipped back down into W KS and will plant myself in Colby. Hopefully I can get some storms later in the evening and more importantly some clearing during the afternoon, but I'm not feeling very confident in my choice. We shall see...I need some heating!