Chase Case #3

[Bob Hartig]

This is a freakin' HARD choice! Put me down in Hollister, OK, and keep me away from small arms so I don't shoot myself for not choosing the northern target. If I did, I'd start in Albert Lea. But I'm going to try my hand at the dryline. I'm sitting under a pretty stout cap, but it weakens within driving distance, and enough of the right could stuff converge to make things interesting this afternoon. Update should be coming shortly; guess I'll practice my sax till then.

Edit: Whoops, there's the update, right on cue.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

10am in Mankato. Sounds about right to kick back a few beers. Anybody else care to join me?

 

[Robert Edmonds]

There's an ongoing MCS... there's been allot of chases where my target is in the wake of this stuff. I don't like the NW upper level winds once you get up to SD and ND, maybe an extreme south eastern SD part of SD may be in play (after looking at 15z not sure about SD in play). With the upper level winds weakening in KS this leaves me to think eastern Nebraska. But where... for now I think I'd just be sitting somewhere in central eastern Nebraska. Maybe someone more wise than me could give me a reason to go more north or south.

hold on just noticed the 15z update...

I think I'll head south till I find a clearing in the couds

 

[Patrick Martin]

I freely admit I am more than a bit stumped on this one. Since the northern play would be to far out of reach for me, I'll play the southern one. I'll commit myself to Alva OK for now, liking the moisture return, and sitting north of the top of the heat axis, although I am worried about the upper level flow. Hopefully I am not so far off the mark that I can actually reposition as needed.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

From the satellite image at 15Z, there appears to be a subtle wind shift line extending from Bartlesville-Okemah-Dallas, and it appears to be moving in my direction. I still think Fort Worth is a good spot for now.

 

[Danny Neal]

12Z - 1730Z/18Z on the road to Albert Lea, MN.

Will make a pitstop on the 15Z outlook and see what things look like. I will be in Madison, WI, at that time so we will go from there.

Still on the road! Right now its 1530Z just a little past Madison, WI and heading west on I 90. Will run into the leftover MCS in about 75 minutes and still hit Albert Lea by about 18Z. So we are on target.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Initially I was buying into the developing low level low in SW KS and heading towards Junction City or somewhere else in NE KS, but ready to move north at a moment's notice. After looking at the 15Z stuff, I still want to sit towards the south, but I'd probably be looking for I-29 and be ready to head up towards E NE.

EDIT: By the way, Andrew, you said you were going to take this one slower than chase case #2, yet you are scheduling updates every 6 hours and having the end results out less than 48 hours after initiating the case. That doesn't sound very slow to me compared to the other two chase cases. Might I suggest giving people more time to "feast" on the data? There's a heck of a lot of it.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Still on the road! Right now its 1530Z just a little past Madison, WI and heading west on I 90. Will run into the leftover MCS in about 75 minutes and still hit Albert Lea by about 18Z. So we are on target.

Careful Danny, I'm about an hour ahead of you and the Wisconsin State Patrol is running a speed trap near the Dells. I'm initially heading toward Mankato then I'll make a final decision whether to stay put or blast toward the cold core setup. I don't like the stratus filling in behind the ongoing convection.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Put me in Leavenworth, KS

 

[Bob Hartig]

Hoo, boy. Can there be two of me? The me sitting up in Albert Lea would be getting backed winds and probably wishing for a bit of a cap, if anything. The me down here in SW Oklahoma would be more than happy to swap the me up there a bit of CINH for some southeasterlies.

I'm not astute enough with remote sensing to extrapolate a lot from satellite imagery alone. I think those are mid-level clouds just to my east, which suggests moisture advection, but I should be doing just fine with deep moisture right where I'm at. Not crazy about these veering surface winds, though. My gut tells me I need to head northeast a bit, closer to OKC, but I'm going to stay put until I see more upper air charts.

 

[Danny Neal]

Careful Danny, I'm about an hour ahead of you and the Wisconsin State Patrol is running a speed trap near the Dells. I'm initially heading toward Mankato then I'll make a final decision whether to stay put or blast toward the cold core setup. I don't like the stratus filling in behind the ongoing convection.

Thanks for the heads up! Yeah the stratus/subsidence or whatever you want to call it after MCS bites a little. That dry punch in SW MN is encouraging and makes me want to head for Willmar. But that is still 4 hours away from Albert Lea and would put me there by 22Z. 18Z will come out when I hear Albert Lea and hopefully by that time a nice clearing will evolve somewhere close. I don't think South Dakota is an option for me unless we are talking about a 7PM or later event.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm a bit confused because the maps go from 12z to 0z....so is the whole day in one post? I was gonna go to Medford, OK to start but all those oz maps make everything south of I-70 look like crap....which is kinda a contest-killer cause the 12z stuff sure makes those southern areas look good. I guess I'll just stay in Medford because the 12z stuff made me go there, despite the fact the 0z stuff makes it look like HP blobs with little shear....but I'll take it.

So Medford, OK to start...and finish I guess, since the 0z maps are already posted too?

 

[Verne Carlson]

Not much change from my location in Sioux Falls, SD - but I may head north on I-29 to Brookings, SD just because my OCD makes me have to keep moving. I like what I see on the 15z visible sat for eastern SD!

 

[John Farley]

I am glad this is a fantasy chase because it's too darn far for me in Edwardsville, IL. But since I can fantasy-drive, I am on my way to NEW ULM, MN. I was thinking Albert Lea earlier but with the updated data I think I need to be a bit west of there to put more distance between myself and the worked-over atmosphere from the earlier convection. And at least if I bust in New Ulm, I can fantasy-drink some of that good New Ulm beer after the chase!

I'm lovin' that divergence in the jet that is going to move over MN; that's what drew me to the northern target to begin with.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I have a hunch that I'm screwed. But I made my bed in Oklahoma and I'll sleep in it. Time to head north as fast as I can for Alva. Great moisture and MLCAPE of 3,500 right where I'm sitting down here in Hollister, but it's capped pretty well and there's just nothing in the way of shear. But up there in the TX panhandle, a cu field is moving in, and upper-level winds start putting in some kind of an appearance. DeLorme tells me I can make my target in 3 hours and 44 minutes. Bet I can make it there by 21z.

EDIT: GOOD GRIEF!!! I can't keep my cases straight! Never mind any of the above. I looked at the wrong set of charts. I'm still sitting in Hollister. And I think I need a beer. Or maybe not.