Chase Case #3

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I think I will head to Mankato, MN along the warm front. The on going storms may provide an outflow boundary in S MN or IA and I have seen some crazy storms on Iowa outflow boundaries so I want to be in position for something like that.

 

[JF Massicotte]

I'll start in Mason City, Ia

 

[Verne Carlson]

At 12z I would only hope to be in the right tri-state area. Based on what I see I'd start in Sioux Falls, SD

 

[Danny Neal]

Had slight change in plans while driving. Decided it would be 2 and 1/2 extra hours to shoot up I 90 through Madison, WI and hit Albert Lea, MN. Figured it would be way easier to drop south and chase anything coming out of IA and having I 35 right there intersecting with I 90, than having to chase it up north. 12Z - 1730Z/18Z on the road to Albert Lea, MN.

Will make a pitstop on the 15Z outlook and see what things look like. I will be in Madison, WI, at that time so we will go from there.

Can't ignore all that helicity in WI but everything would most likely be elevated as there is no CAPE and barely enough decent moisture. Do like the Dakotas border area too, lots of vorticity with that L.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I didn't look at this one as much as #2, so I will probably change my location. For now, Cedar Rapids sort of catches my eye, so I will park it here for awhile.

 

[David Wolfson]

Thankfully I don't have to think about a 1,000 mile trip back to the TX/OK dryline. If I were I'd stick around in northern OK -- Ponca City, say -- and wait for noonish data to see where development might focus.

The upper features don't seem quite right for a cold-core setup. Anyway, the axis of moisture and forced development at12Z extends down to something like Bethany in northwest MO where the tail-end storm is showing a divergent 'v' on satellite. The 00Z models show pretty good nosing of moisture, instability, and winds. There's a hint of an elevated trough axis and associated triple-point around Des Moines. I'll just go with trend and simple-mindedly project this mess into the afternoon.

So for this trip, I would head northeast and start out on the Mississippi in extreme southeast MN at Dakota, MN.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

SD did look promising again, because of the shear, but there is not much moisture, and a cold front is about to move through which will make everything sucky. I would start in Oklahoma city, because there is a weak LLJ bringing in moisture from the gulf, and there is some CAPE and no CIN, there isn't much shear but that might change through the day. I will wait for the next set of maps. So My starting position is Oklahoma City

 

[Tony Perkins]

I'm going to buck the trend and go to Blackwell, OK.

 

[Matthew Harding]

This one is a toughie, as you could make an equally viable case for both targets. That said, since I am already in SC KS, I will make my way toward Emporia, KS and wait for the next set of data.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Since there would be no way for me to make the northern target from OKC, I am heading west to Clinton, OK. I will wait there and see what happens.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll head down US 169 towards Mankato, MN, but may head a bit west depending on later data.

 

[Chris Allington]

Ugh... this one is tough for me too. Based on proximity alone I'm going to be chasing the Northern Target. Plus, I'm not terribly thrilled about the much warmer mid levels (capping) and terrain on the N. TX side of the Red River Valley, atleast not from the limited amount of time that I was there on my way to Austin once. I'm heading for Brookings, SD and will more than likely check the 15z update from either Souix City or Souix Falls depending on how fast I can make it out the door. I can adjust north or south on 29 and I really like the wind fields better with the northern target.

 

[Brad Nelson]

The northern target sure looks like a cold core set-up in my opinion. The 00Z pressure graphic is hinting at low pressure into southeast ND into northwest MN and around ~200 miles or so to the southeast of the 500 mb low. I'd probably want to target somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND near the Fergus Falls, MN area at this point.

The southern target is tricky and I don't think it looks all that great, but I'd want to position myself west of OKC and somewhere near the Hinton, OK area and wait for initiation on the dryline. Further south, I'd be worried about capping problems but this looks like some nice, soupy air so if it could overcome the cap there should be some decent storms, especially with the 65 degree dewps and higher CAPE nosing into this area by 00Z.

Interesting case!

 

[Michael P. Morris]

My initial thoughts would be to target Fort Worth, Texas, as the low level jet promises to keep the moisture fairly deep and prevent the dryline from rapidly advancing eastward. The upper level winds are a little uncertain as of 12Z, but the southern edge of the shortwave trough over New Mexico should pass directly over my head. The 250/300 mb winds should become a little more westerly as the cold core cyclone in the northern plains deepens and moves off to the east.

 

[Andrew Revering]

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