Eric Stoner
I'm new to this board, I joined last year, actually, but haven't posted anything.
I read this post on monday night (last night) and I didn't look at the other responses, so I'm not really cheating on this.
I wanted to say I figured out this must have been pre-1994 because of the location of the RAOB at STC (St. Cloud) instead of MPX (Minneapolis) and HON instead of ABR. Also FNT, DAY, HTS, PIA, and Athens GA show up. That really doesn't give away anything other than pre-1994. Originally I was thinking, "that's where the RAOB locations were in the 70's."
analysis of weather
--
1. - what a strong 500-200mb low on the West Coast. The time of the year must be late May or early June in order to have both this and the 75 degree dew points in Texas. Of course, you already said so. Geesh look at those 75 degree dew points! (sorry, I'm from up north. my brain would be melting with humidity like that)
2. looking at the 500mb temperatures - everything looks kind of warm even the locations south of (and close to) the 500mb low. Considering there's a 500mb low there, the temperatures are kind of warm. However, the 700mb temperatures west of Denver to Albuquerque are cold. This is clearly a strong cold advection at 700mb west of Amarillo and Dodge City.
3. I like the 0-6km shear at DDC more than AMA. Somehow AMA had 25 knot winds at 500mb and DDC had 35 knots. The 0-6km shear should be on the increase during the day as the 500mb wind over 30 knots should spread eastward some, although I don't know how much. Surface winds east of the dryline were up to 15 knots at the 15z surface map, generally southerly.
4. There was a warm front going from northern Arkansas to northwest Kansas, north of the front there were southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots and dew points mainly below 65 degrees.
5. there seem to be a lot of cloudy locations in the morning. that will probably change as the 700mb humidities are low and things mix up.
6. There were 2 to 3 millibar pressure rises in Albuquerque and southern NM between the 12z and 15z charts, this means the surface low and dry line are going to try to push eastward. This also corresponds to the 700 megabar (oops I mean millibar) cold advection.
This goes along with the 60 knot wind streak at 500mb in AZ and NM, this has a vort max north of it and will try to push eastward some, I'm not sure how much.
Interesting little short wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico. That's probably not too important, though.
7. Everything looks capped, with relatively warm 700mb temperatures and 500mb temperatures in the southern Plains. Actually there's two inversions on the RAOBs. All the morning soundings are capped, some by a lot. Even if you stuck in 70 degree dew points, they would still be capped. This can change a lot in a day, especially perhaps this sort of day where a (maybe) strong short wave ejects from the desert into the southern Plains. this could mean a lot of areas have a "loaded gun" sounding.
8. A 25 to 40 knot LLJ was right along the dryline in west Texas to near Dodge City. East of this, Midland is super-moist at 850mb.
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my choice for storm chasing:
Coldwater, KS
a little east of the dryline at 15z
south of the warm front
probably pretty good 0-6km shear, possibly above 40 knots
70 degree dew points nearby
0-3km helicity should be pretty good, although it's hard to figure this out in my head.
I think the vort max and maximum cooling at 500mb will move to Nebraska in this SW flow.
southern Kansas is near the northern "edge" of the LLJ. The LLJ should shift eastward during the day. Maybe a little, maybe a lot.
there could be some good surface wind convergence in western Oklahoma.
I read this post on monday night (last night) and I didn't look at the other responses, so I'm not really cheating on this.
I wanted to say I figured out this must have been pre-1994 because of the location of the RAOB at STC (St. Cloud) instead of MPX (Minneapolis) and HON instead of ABR. Also FNT, DAY, HTS, PIA, and Athens GA show up. That really doesn't give away anything other than pre-1994. Originally I was thinking, "that's where the RAOB locations were in the 70's."
analysis of weather
--
1. - what a strong 500-200mb low on the West Coast. The time of the year must be late May or early June in order to have both this and the 75 degree dew points in Texas. Of course, you already said so. Geesh look at those 75 degree dew points! (sorry, I'm from up north. my brain would be melting with humidity like that)
2. looking at the 500mb temperatures - everything looks kind of warm even the locations south of (and close to) the 500mb low. Considering there's a 500mb low there, the temperatures are kind of warm. However, the 700mb temperatures west of Denver to Albuquerque are cold. This is clearly a strong cold advection at 700mb west of Amarillo and Dodge City.
3. I like the 0-6km shear at DDC more than AMA. Somehow AMA had 25 knot winds at 500mb and DDC had 35 knots. The 0-6km shear should be on the increase during the day as the 500mb wind over 30 knots should spread eastward some, although I don't know how much. Surface winds east of the dryline were up to 15 knots at the 15z surface map, generally southerly.
4. There was a warm front going from northern Arkansas to northwest Kansas, north of the front there were southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots and dew points mainly below 65 degrees.
5. there seem to be a lot of cloudy locations in the morning. that will probably change as the 700mb humidities are low and things mix up.
6. There were 2 to 3 millibar pressure rises in Albuquerque and southern NM between the 12z and 15z charts, this means the surface low and dry line are going to try to push eastward. This also corresponds to the 700 megabar (oops I mean millibar) cold advection.
This goes along with the 60 knot wind streak at 500mb in AZ and NM, this has a vort max north of it and will try to push eastward some, I'm not sure how much.
Interesting little short wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico. That's probably not too important, though.
7. Everything looks capped, with relatively warm 700mb temperatures and 500mb temperatures in the southern Plains. Actually there's two inversions on the RAOBs. All the morning soundings are capped, some by a lot. Even if you stuck in 70 degree dew points, they would still be capped. This can change a lot in a day, especially perhaps this sort of day where a (maybe) strong short wave ejects from the desert into the southern Plains. this could mean a lot of areas have a "loaded gun" sounding.
8. A 25 to 40 knot LLJ was right along the dryline in west Texas to near Dodge City. East of this, Midland is super-moist at 850mb.
---
my choice for storm chasing:
Coldwater, KS
a little east of the dryline at 15z
south of the warm front
probably pretty good 0-6km shear, possibly above 40 knots
70 degree dew points nearby
0-3km helicity should be pretty good, although it's hard to figure this out in my head.
I think the vort max and maximum cooling at 500mb will move to Nebraska in this SW flow.
southern Kansas is near the northern "edge" of the LLJ. The LLJ should shift eastward during the day. Maybe a little, maybe a lot.
there could be some good surface wind convergence in western Oklahoma.
