CHASE CASE #1: The 7-Layer Burrito

[Carrie Halliday]

My totally novice forecasting skills can see me setting up shop near Altus, OK around 2 or so, waiting to see where the storms start to pop. Then I will question myself, should I have started in Woodward? The internal non-assurance will continue until something fires. :lol:

 

[David Wolfson]

After lunch in North Platte we're still going to head west down the road to Ogallala. Dp upstream, i.e. Imperial and McCook, are pushing into the mid-upper 60s with the hoped for clearing mid-level. Nicely backed winds, a T-Td of 10-15F, upper energy juicing up the surface low and dry punch to the southwest, and throw in 3,500' elevation. What's wrong with this picture?

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Target: McCook, NE

The warm front in C/N KS looks like the best game to play, IMO. S/w trough moving out from the west is poised to initiate storms in the central plains. Also, I like the fact that this area is on the nose of a 40 kt LLJ.

Gabe

EDIT: I actually think this was a big tornado day...thermodynamics were spectacular, good baroclinic boundary was in play, and the low-level shear was probably spectacular along the warm front.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

After reviewing the 18z data, I’m heading NW from Hays towards Hill City and will look for initiation to the NW. I think Storms will build back towards the SW, so will look for a tail end charley.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

After a check of the 18 z surface obs I feel my forecast is still on target. Warm front has lifted to near I 70 as expected. My target was Russell, I feel I am slightly too far south now and I would begin heading north toward the Nebraska state line. I also note that an area of strong moisture convergence has set up shop over the SE Texas panhandle and this same area will be in the RR quadrant of the 60 knt jet streak as it emerges into the plains. However it is my experience that the LF tends to go first. The LF should be coincident with the moist tongue, near 70 F DP, that have surged to near the Nebraska state line south of Lexington. This is the area I would be attacking where high instability and strong shear, due to backed winds along the warm front will produce conditions highly favorable for supercells and potential tornadoes given low LCL's.

 

[Joe Nield]

I'm still feeling confident in my target of McCook, NE, but I am watching 1km vis pix and surrounding skies watching for first signs of initiation lest it take place just to my south and cut me off.

I'm really liking this boundary.

edit: It's a target, not a targer...duh.

 

[Jason_Politte]

Excellent job, Tim! Your cases are always very well done.

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden

Mr. Politte promised us he'd be in touch but we haven't heard from him since he left from Conway, AR on his zombie-drive to catch this system up here. :wink:

You know me all too well, Karen. :lol: I might consider staying away from those particularly bad convenience store burritos on a day like this though.

I've always been a sucker for those warm front/dryline intersections, and I'll be heading somewhere in the Norton, KS to Arapahoe, NE vicinity to await initiation. I'll have some decent road options there and can always bump north if need be.

Back to preparing for a real chase tomorrow.

Jason

 

[JR Hehnly]

Without having read other's replies yet I'd be headed toward the area starting to clear just to the west of Hays, KS. The upper level winds are well sheared here and the surface winds are backing nicely, which I like. I'd be headed a little further north to the east surface winds if the cloudcover would break up a little more this afternoon. I'm keeping an eye on the visible satellite for that to happen and adjust my route to the Nebraska border if it does.

 

[Jeff Wear]

After looking at the 18z data I'm gonna drift a bit north to Phillipsburg....good west-east route going through there with numerous options to the north if needed.

 

[Glen Romine]

A little late to get a chance to look this over, but here is my guess(es). Two different areas capture my attention. The first, as has been well noted, is along the warm front / dryline intersection over northern KS. In particular, theta-E nose pointing toward just west of Hill City could certainly draw me toward that region. The down side of this choice is that it appears storm motions would have storms move northward away from the boundary - and toward that horribly cool and drizzly region in Nebraska. Yuk. 18Z update showing a pretty soft dryline up there though, so that is disappointing as well for dryline cells to kick off south of the warm front and then crossing as mature cells. The next best looking region could well be back around Childress. Pressure analysis at 15 Z and 18Z shows a E-W trough in this region intersecting the dryline, along with improving deep layer shear. But, mass convergence looks fairly weak and most of the diffluence was to the north, so the cap might be tough to break despite some indication of a 700 mb cold front sweeping toward the region. I probably would have went with the safer bet for convection in KS without any additional information to go on.

Glen

 

[nickgrillo]

Target: Hays/Russel, KS

I'd probably end up heading NW from there...

<img src=http://midwestchase.com/wxforecasts/7layerburritocase.gif>

..Nick..

 

[Tim Vasquez]

<span style='color:darkred'>June 15, 1992



June 15, 1992 was one of the big outbreaks of the 1990s. Initiation was northwest of Hays, Kansas. Between 1615 and 2035 CDT, the storm grew into a supercell complex that produced 39 tornadoes in north central Kansas, including 12 in Mitchell County and 9 in Osborne County. A farmer living south of Cawker City reported going to the basement in his farm home 5 different times, and each time he came out of the basement his farm had additional damage.

Selected summaries and photos on the web
* http://www.k5kj.net/19920615.HTM - Sam Barricklow
* http://www.silverliningtours.com/silver2/gallery2.htm - Silver Lining Tours
* http://www.geocities.com/aaron_blaser/chase.html - Aaron Blaser
* http://www.ksn.com/weather/tornado.html - KSN Wichita weather
* http://members.nckcn.com/mcem/weather_pic's.htm - Mitchell County KS Emergency Preparedness

As far as why it is the SEVEN-LAYER BURRITO, there are two explanations. One, I was having one while assembling this case. Two, this weather event was made up of a tantalizing swirl of features seen at SFC, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250, and 200 mb.

Great job everyone -- there would have been a lot of tornado footage coming from this crowd.

Tim

 

[David Wolfson]

Great case, and good education! Thanks, Tim!

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Thanks tim

 

[Rockwell Schrock]

I guess I'm a little late for this, but I'd like to post my findings anyway. My target area was SW to SC KS. There was good diffluence at the 500mb and 300mb layers, the northern end of the advancing dryline (which stops around the advancing warm front) was positioned there, and the soundings just to the south (AMA and FWD) had good moisture and lots of instability.

However, I still guessed pretty far south. I was originally thinking the OK panhandle looked good, but the 18Z surface map changed that.

What caused these storms to fire so far north of the warm front? There aren't many boundaries up there to indicate good conditions.