Boy does this look familiar!

[Mikey Gribble]

I had forgotten about all those in between days during May and early June 2004. That was an amazing year. Every year since has been a comparative let down. I was just telling somebody the other day how I really miss having one of those days where you are pretty much 100% sure it's going to be a major tornado outbreak. Not just your typical good setup. I'm talking about the ones where it is blatantly obvious strong tornadoes are going to happen. The last time I remember that happening was May 4th 2003. There was another one that happened like a week later, maybe the 9th that was pretty obvious too though. I guess you could probably count May 29th, 2004 as an obvious outbreak too though. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few, but you know what I mean. I really hope we get another one of those classic strong tornado outbreaks where every storm coming off the dryline is a tornado machine. There is no better feeling than driving to your target on a morning like that when you know **** is going to hit the fan.

Yeah the GFS doesn't give much hope right now, but it is showing that cutoff low breaking loose over the west coast and riding the subtropical jet into the plains. At least that's something. It is still a week out, but hopefully we'll get a chase day out of that the end of next week.

 

[Rich Thompson]

Heck you can start it on May10th. The tornado machine near Limon.
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040510_rpts.html

Some 30 year vets I believe called it the best year to chase(pretty sure Jim Leonard did). There was something on the crazy side almost each of those days between May 10 and June 13. Damn it now I'm motivated to make a page dedicated to it, linking to as many chaser accounts as I could. Just a big fat spoiler season. Most crazy part was pretty much all of them were slow movers and in the plains.

May 10 Colorado Limon tornadofest
May 12 SC Kansas/Attica amazing tornadic sup
May 16 tornadoes in NE
May 19 ND tornadoes
May 21 tornadoes in IA including a massive mile wide wedge
May 22 big tornado outbreak including Hallam NE
May 24 sc NE/nc KS sup produces like 15 tornadoes(another one in nw MO I think)
May 28 crazy storm in ne NE(not a heck of a lot chased that day) and tornadoes in se SD
May 29 big tornado outbreak
May 30 big tornado outbreak to the east
June 6 ND tornadoes
June 10 Big Springs NE tornadic sup and later sc NE twilight tornado and sup
June 11 small outbreak in nw IA(Samaras tornado probe video)
June 12 bust in NE...Mulvane tornado in KS
June 13 crazy looking tornadic sup near Lincoln NE
July 7 nw flow produces a small tornado outbreak in nc KS
July 12 Bartlett NE tornadoes
July 13 Roanoke IL tornado

That is just listing some of the bigger ones I can think of. Looking at storm reports between those there are a lot of other storm days and even tornado days on the plains. That is just a silly period that I think is going to be real hard to top. To have so many big chaser days with so VERY few days of nothing, well would be nice again! Jinx.

It kills me to look over that list and realize I worked evening and midnight shifts from mid-late May in 2004. I'm not quite a 30 year vet (only 26 yrs), but 2004 stacked up well against some of the other big chase years since I've been in the game (1990, 1991, 1995 and 1999). 2008 was another good year that really got rolling from 22 May through 12 June.

March and April only matter *if* they reflect the flow regime we'll have in May and June. Some years we struggle with the moisture return until late, and those turn out to be decent seasons by the end. Other years are no good from start to finish (1987-88). Most years with a slow start seem to turn out like 2005 or 2009, with a few decent chase days late in the season.

It's my guess that this whole spring will end up well below normal. That doesn't mean there won't be any good chase opportunities, but it does mean you might need more luck than usual to see a fair number of tornadoes. My chase opportunities will be limited by family and work this year, so I'm hoping there's not much to miss

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Did anyone read the latest SPC Day 4-8 convective outlook 181200 - 231200Z?

"...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD".

Thats more like what I wanna read

Hopefully this tendency persists!!!

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

Did anyone read the latest SPC Day 4-8 convective outlook 181200 - 231200Z?

"...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD".

Thats more like what I wanna read

Hopefully this tendency persists!!!

The last issue of GFS at 192 shows a possible tornadic setup for the TX and OK Panhandle, KS. The directional shear would be very good. But they are still too far 192 hours, unfortunately!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/SP/gfsSP_500_spd_192.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/SP/gfsSP_700_spd_192.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/SP/gfsSP_850_spd_192.gif

 

[Ron Riemersma]

Regarding the day 4-8...

THIS FEATURE...IF ACCURATELY PROJECTED...SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRAW A FAIRLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
NWD ACROSS THE GOM INTO THE SRN PLAINS..


If I didn't know any better, I would say it sounds like this forecaster is almost hoping this will happen...

 

[David Williams]

I think you're right.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Don't worry about the season just yet. Massive supercell incoming!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

Don't worry about the season just yet. Massive supercell incoming!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

LOL

A new EF10 Tornado will come!!

 

[Ryan Wichman]

LOL

A new EF10 Tornado will come!!

or perhaps that infamous EF-6 that is suppose to be coming this year!!??


As far as the models go, it is nice to see some degree of moisture return occuring in the medium range models again. Not ready to jump on any set-ups this far out as nothing really excites me yet. (Nothing that is, except for the thoughts of May and June being right around the corner! )

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

What a FREAKIN boring weather pattern!!!!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

What a FREAKIN boring weather pattern!!!!

I kind of love freaking boring patterns in April. I feel like I'm saving gas. If only I'd have skipped the 3 chases I've gone on so far I'd be that much better off.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_180m.gif

Models have been kind of liking the 23rd for a chase day. Seems pretty likely it will unboring itself for at least a while come that day. Probably still in that waste of gas time frame though.

 

[Adam Lucio]

The GFS is showing an even nicer system after that, granted I am not buying it but seeing an overall pattern more conductive to chases is a good sign.

 

[Jason Foster]

I kind of love freaking boring patterns in April. I feel like I'm saving gas.

Especially with gas on the rise again....less chasing before prime time is good.