ATLANTIC: TS FIONA

[Jason Harris]

Sure, she's not as exciting as the Earl of Sandwich right now (CAT 4 and getting stronger yet), but Fiona is more to the south and perhaps won't have as much a recurve despite the forecast weakness with her intensity. And with Fiona finally, can Gaston be far behind?
And she is convecting "up a storm" now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rb-l.jpg

 

[Jason Foster]

Sure, she's not as exciting as the Earl of Sandwich right now (CAT 4 and getting stronger yet), but Fiona is more to the south and perhaps won't have as much a recurve despite the forecast weakness with her intensity. And with Fiona finally, can Gaston be far behind?
And she is convecting "up a storm" now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rb-l.jpg

Fiona is somewhat close to Earl, and I wonder how much the deeper cool water upwelling is going to play a factor. I'm not too worried about Fiona attm, I'd be happier with a possible Gaston development.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

And the beat goes on:

Africa just keeps dishing out!

Sooner or later, one of US is gonna get hit.

 

[Jason Harris]

Fiona doesn't look to have what it takes. Going a bit too fast, looking like a tag-along to her larger sibling Earl smoking too much dry air and stuck in his shearing shadow: "SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN 24-36 HOURS." Let's go Gaston. . . .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/rb-l.jpg

 

[cdcollura]

Fiona will be disrupted by Earl's high-altitude outflow "plume".

Anyone remember "Hanna" in 2008? No match for Gustav's upper outflow.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Interesting quote from the latest NHC forecast discussion on Fiona. The last line reads..

I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS...AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN STURGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM

Heres a snapshot from ensemble members

and from the dynamic models:

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Regardless of model output - which seem to be having a hard time with Fiona. A glace at some sat images shows that Fiona is REALLY struggling and may well fizz out soon.