Josh Morgerman
EF4
Thanks, Scott, for that info. Interesting that the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) recurves to the storm to the NE and spares Hong Kong a direct hit. I did some additional research this morning and also checked out the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which I've been told is the "official" source for info Re: systems in this region.
As with tropical cyclones threatening Australia, the different agencies covering the South China Sea give conflicting views.
INTENSITY
As of the time of my writing this, the JTWC estimates 120 kt. The JMA indicates ~104 kt when their 10-min average value of 90 kt is converted to a 1-min value. That's a big difference. Both agencies now anticipate weakening as Chanchu moves N-- so the prognosis does not seem quite as dire as last night. Even so, the JTWC forecast still implies a direct hit on Hong Kong by a 105-kt typhoon (Cat 3 USA).
I notice in the latest satellite imagery (below) that the N portions of the system seem to eroding a bit.
TRACK
Again, opinions significantly diverge. The JTWC keeps Chanchu moving pretty-much due N, to Hong Kong, whereas the JMA (and HKO) indicate significant NE recurvature, sparing Hong Kong a direct hit.
OVERALL
From a standpoint of both intensity and track, the JTWC prediction is the most threatening to Hong Kong. I would be curious to know what causes the rather large differences between the JTWC's and JMA's opinions on this situation.
Please note: This image will update dynamically and the commentary above will no longer apply as time passes.
As with tropical cyclones threatening Australia, the different agencies covering the South China Sea give conflicting views.
INTENSITY
As of the time of my writing this, the JTWC estimates 120 kt. The JMA indicates ~104 kt when their 10-min average value of 90 kt is converted to a 1-min value. That's a big difference. Both agencies now anticipate weakening as Chanchu moves N-- so the prognosis does not seem quite as dire as last night. Even so, the JTWC forecast still implies a direct hit on Hong Kong by a 105-kt typhoon (Cat 3 USA).
I notice in the latest satellite imagery (below) that the N portions of the system seem to eroding a bit.
TRACK
Again, opinions significantly diverge. The JTWC keeps Chanchu moving pretty-much due N, to Hong Kong, whereas the JMA (and HKO) indicate significant NE recurvature, sparing Hong Kong a direct hit.
OVERALL
From a standpoint of both intensity and track, the JTWC prediction is the most threatening to Hong Kong. I would be curious to know what causes the rather large differences between the JTWC's and JMA's opinions on this situation.
Please note: This image will update dynamically and the commentary above will no longer apply as time passes.
![rb-l.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2Fmtsat%2Fflt%2Ft1%2Frb-l.jpg&hash=0c9f4832a0e36f6f3efc710d600d0c1f)