Interesting setup in south China

[Simone Lussardi]

Hi All,

There is an interesting setup for the following couple of days in southern China, in the area just NW and NE of Hong Kong, conducive to potential severe storms development. Here a brief of the conditions. There is a sfc trough of low pressure lying in the regions just north of south China coast, which is seasonal and often there, with its convergence zone:

(file attached 1)

The trough is intensifying as several upper level (500 hpa) waves are trailing from W-SW, with a subtropical jet also intensifying. Here is the sounding of this morning in the north of my location of about 100 km:

(file attached 2)

Profile is quite good, low level (< 500 hpa) improve drastically down to the coast, as we have strong SE winds at sfc, intensifying (here in my location, 100 km inland, blow 15 kts gust to 25 kts from the SE). Storms are already ongoing just over the above sounding station, dews are in the order of 75F and temps around 80-85F ( you can see it live here http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/...query=GUANGZHOU ). Here a flash of the radar with the early morning convection, showing the great instabilty:

(file attached 3)

Today and tomorrow convection is expected to increase in intensity (as it is prefrontal) while the convergence line re-inforce and move southwards slowly. By tomorrow evening, it should be around my area (100 km N of Hong Kong) causing severe weather. Some tornadoes are expected from this system, given the good shear environment and a bit drier air north of the convergence zone (cannot be called "a dryline", but with dews in the order of 75F is enough to help out the lift !).

I will keep you informed,
Bye !

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Sun is heating up tremendously the area marked in the latest radar frame, with the early convection OFB building strong storms to me NE. The low level flow, very humid, can be even discerned on radar loop now:

http://www.grmc.gov.cn/tqsk/gzrad_r.asp

I guess we are in for severe storms even today, and tomorrow the potential will even increase.

Actually I record the following data:

Current Conditions
Updated: 12:00 PM CST on April 26, 2006
Observed At: Guangzhou, CI
Elevation: 26 ft / 8 m
82 °F / 28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008 hPa
Heat Index: 90 °F / 32 °C

(NOTE: winds are wrong in Guangzhou, they are blowing SE not west, maybe the station has trouble)

Juice in place...

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Storms ongoing !

I got an incredible fast development overhead, gotta check, is dark-night now ! Dews still on the 75F. An updraft just collapsed over me, things change very quickly.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Nice to meet you simone are you from China? Never hear of any tornados in china does anyone know if china has had a tornado over the F1 rating? Hope you get some storms simone let us know how things turned out. Take Care.

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Nice to meet you simone are you from China? Never hear of any tornados in china does anyone know if china has had a tornado over the F1 rating? Hope you get some storms simone let us know how things turned out. Take Care.
[/b]

Yes I live in China, but I am Italian.

There is at least a multiple-death killer tornado a year in China. Due to the very extreme humidity from the South China Sea and Indian Ocean being driven in central China, in spring conditions are often favorable for severe storms development when spells of dry and cold air descend from Siberia over the Gobi desert and collide over a permanent convergence zone in central China, which move up and down China all over the spring (the "MEI YU" front).

Unfortunately reports of weather are still in the very early stage, especially outside big cities, but China is doing great by installing weather radar (that soon will be online I guess for many locations). From big cities, there is at least two or three tornado report per year, and some of them are incredible in damages (two years ago in April not far from my location in southern China, in Guangdong province, they get a very strong tornado, from the damages seen on TV should have been at least an F4).

From March to May tornadoes can be expected all over the SErn parts of China, where conditions can be favorable for supercells. Then from June to September, tornadoes are typhoon spawned, but can be very strong (one tornado destroyed parts of the city where I live in June 1994, spawned by a typhoon).

Here you can see some confirmed reports of tornadoes:
http://www.tornadoproject.com/alltorns/china.htm

Road network in China is non-existing, in Guangdong is a little better and they are building a lot of highways now. Hope one day I can try to chase some of these beauty storms !

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Today also looks very promising ! Morning clouds avoid early convecetion, which started out late (16:00), could led to some strong storm again given the good shear. Attached a radar shot of now and the sounding of this morning 8:00 AM local time.

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Storms are bubbling and probably getting severe... Some hook can be seen on radar.

I'll try to source for news of nearby areas, as some storms might head for big cities.

At my location winds pick up from the SE, very warm and humid with dews around 73-75F.

 

[PeteMcConnell]

Storms are bubbling and probably getting severe... Some hook can be seen on radar.

I'll try to source for news of nearby areas, as some storms might head for big cities.

At my location winds pick up from the SE, very warm and humid with dews around 73-75F.
[/b]

Sounds like you're having all the fun right now Simone! Here in the U.S. we are awaiting an active weather pattern at the moment. Thank you for sharing your excitement with us, and I hope you see something close enough to you to chase.

Pete

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Well, on early morning of 28th storms did get severe, as a cold front formed on the edge of the convergence zone and move SE, with a strong W-SW flow aloft.

We got the formation of a strong line SE of Guangzhou (in the center of the radar) with a severe squall line in the back of it, which lashed my location with severe gusts, estimated around 60-70 mph.

I'm still searching for local news, seems there has been lot of damages around here but none of them confirmed tornadoes.

I have recovered three radar frames of the night:

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

is this the same weather pattern that causes those infamous and mammoth Bangladesh tornadoes with something like 9,000J/Kg of CAPE?

 

[Bill Hark]

Interesting storms. I am suprised that I haven't seen any video of tornadoes from China. Although there are no chasers actively chasing in China (that I know of), I am sure there must be people with video cameras who have fimed tornadoes and given the footage to local media.

Bill Hark

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Interesting storms. I am suprised that I haven't seen any video of tornadoes from China. Although there are no chasers actively chasing in China (that I know of), I am sure there must be people with video cameras who have fimed tornadoes and given the footage to local media.

Bill Hark
[/b]

I've only seen damage videos so far, some are really incredible and, as you said, is also incredible there are no tornado videos. But it has to be said also that usually chinese are poor and cannot afford a videocam unless they live in big cities.

I hope I can contribute soon with some footage, it will surely be the first one.

By the way, today China open its "Weather Channel", digitally broadcasted around China by cable and only dedicated to weather. I will check out how to get it and maybe there will be some more interesting footage there.

Bye,
Simone

Well, on early morning of 28th storms did get severe, as a cold front formed on the edge of the convergence zone and move SE, with a strong W-SW flow aloft.

We got the formation of a strong line SE of Guangzhou (in the center of the radar) with a severe squall line in the back of it, which lashed my location with severe gusts, estimated around 60-70 mph.

I'm still searching for local news, seems there has been lot of damages around here but none of them confirmed tornadoes.

I have recovered three radar frames of the night:


[/b]

Yes correct, patterns are more or less the same. The only thing lacking here is a definite dryline like you can have in Bangladesh (due to chinook effect down the Himalaya), but humidity and energy are more or less the same.

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Today is gonna be another stormy day... Strong wind profile and abundant juice with dews over 75F. Here's the sounding of 8:00 AM local time (!!) and the situation on radar, with a strong and suspect cell riding the jet just north of the sounding location. As the sun heat up, a moderate surface flow should develop from the SSW, maybe not backed enough for tornadoes but enough for strong cells.

Last night I got an incredible cell north of Guangzhou, with lightning so intense that I could not count, more than 3 per second, with frequent cgs.

Interesting the PWAT of the sounding is at 65.72... really a high value for May even in Guangdong.

 

[Simone Lussardi]

The wave of bad weather still going with a deep, but not strong as before, flow.

Is incredible the station of Yangjiang, along the coast, SW of my location, which is more than 48 hours under a permanent convective cell continuosly reforming in the same place. See the rain fall in the past two days is unbelieavable, as high as 21 inches of rain !! Cells are still bubling in the inland, and flow is still favoreable for some long lived storm which occasionally can be severe.