We have Ana!

[Bart_Comstock]

Well it is about time. Looks like the almost forgotten about TD2 that the NHC just a day ago said was not worth issuing advisories on anymore took serious offense to that statement and did a 180 to go from nothing to a Tropical Storm.

The big question as to whether or not we are going to see this make it to Florida or the Carolinas or just turn out to sea over the Bahamas is if that huge ridge that is setting up over the Atlantic can hold its ground and if it will stretch far enough back towards the coast to keep Ana from turning before she reaches the CONUS but really that is obvious.

With how bad the models have been looking out past day one should be considered fantasy land and they are a bit spread as the GFDL doesn't seem to care for Ana to much for Ana as it has it making just past the lesser Antilles as a TS before rapidly starting to fall apart, yet the HWRF has it as a Cat 2 eventually. My thoughts are that this will just barely make it to the coast before turning out to sea as the back side of the ridge will weaken and allow for the storm to start its turn over the Bahamas. The GFS also doesn't like Ana much and has her driving more due west and not lasting very long.

 

[J Kinkaid]

G-IV and NOAA P3 are expected to depart Bridgetown for Ana around 20Z today. So hopefully that gives us some more reliable model data

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Ana looks awful. The shear is pushing most of the stronger convection to the east of her center and if the forecasted track holds and we see Ana hit Hispaniola I just don't think it will make it off the island alive.

Bill certainly will be the main show now but I still see him turning out to sea once her reaches the Bahamas so the likelihood of either of these hitting the CONUS as a hurricane just doesn't seem very likely and really that is fine with me as economically speaking our nation needs a year free of any major land falling storms.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It appears to be firing up convection again (as of 8 AM 8-17). The major hurdle will be the mountains in Hispanola - That should completely destroy Ana once and for all.

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

How sad is it that I'm praying a full week out for Anna to dissipate to a wave and get ridge pushed west to Central TX coast for some rain here in S. Central TX????

When I see FF Warnings for Michigan with 4+ inches of rain in less than 10 hours which is more than 1/2 of what we've recieved all year, you get delerious in your hopes.