Another bustola in the making

[Rocky Rascovich]

My fears are unfortunately coming to pass as the slight risk for the eastern half of KS. is still in the throes of a substantial cap, also influence from the MCS that is in the autumn of its life over eastern IA. has stabilized the atmosphere considerably across western IA.

As far as KS. is concerned, I don't suspect anything will happen convectively ontil after sunset in the northeast sections of KS.. Areas out toward Dodge City MAY see some storms initiate within a couple of hours but these will be nothing but high based wind bags. The RUC does break out some precip by 03Z across west central KS., perhaps some lightning shots maybe in order.

Should've had the picnic today...dawgonnit! I feel bad for those who were looking forward to it and are instead chasing a bunch of cirrus clouds.

Rocky&family

 

[Justin Walker]

Exactly....Thats why I decided to watch this one from my pc. The cap is still weak now...it just might be strong enough to hold off real storms. Have to bank on the short wave moving in right now into NE.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Convection now initiating in KS.

I must have looked at an old image when I posted earlier because now a thin line of congestus/cb's are forming along the cool front across from west of Beatrice, NE. to around I-70 maybe around Hayes...not looked at radar yet but my guess the echoes are weak...shear sure is rockin' especially from Topeka on northeast to St. Jo, MO. As the cap weakens some in this area, something decent may transpire soon.

Rocky&family

 

[Justin Walker]

But the big problem with this area, well bigger than E NE, is the cap is stronger down around the I-70 area. The 850mb temps are around or >25 degrees here. I forsee the same thing happening to these cells as they move off the front. :cry:

EDIT: My apologies for posting here!

 

[Anthony Petito]

This thread shouldnt be here guys... You need to post this stuff in the current TALK thread for 5/21.