Tim Paitz
EF2
After making it through the central Caribbean (aka the "hurricane graveyard"), 97L finally got the westerly winds it needed to get a closed circulation and go straight to being designated a tropical storm.
The forecast models had a tough time with this one. A few days ago the GFS showed... well, nothing while the Euro was rather aggressive, even showing Earl as a minimum category 3 with 100 knot winds. Not only that but the landfall was fluctuating between Belize and the central Yucatan every other run or so. However, all of the models agree that it'll stay in that general area.
What's ahead for Earl? High oceanic heat content and land interaction. Earl's path is pretty important for how it will affect Belize, Honduras and Mexico. If it tracks farther south than anticipated, then it'll likely interact with Honduras (which will nonetheless create flooding problems and possible landslides). Then there's the oceanic heat content. Satellite imagery from a few hours ago showed a blowup of thunderstorms near the center so Earl may very well be getting its act together. A few weather people on Twitter are talking about the chance of an RI. I'm not going to say whether or mot that will happen but nonetheless, it's still a threat for Belize, the Honduran coast and the southern Yucatan.
The water temps are well into the 80's, usually 84 on the Belizean and Honduran coasts so that's that high heat content.
The forecast models had a tough time with this one. A few days ago the GFS showed... well, nothing while the Euro was rather aggressive, even showing Earl as a minimum category 3 with 100 knot winds. Not only that but the landfall was fluctuating between Belize and the central Yucatan every other run or so. However, all of the models agree that it'll stay in that general area.
What's ahead for Earl? High oceanic heat content and land interaction. Earl's path is pretty important for how it will affect Belize, Honduras and Mexico. If it tracks farther south than anticipated, then it'll likely interact with Honduras (which will nonetheless create flooding problems and possible landslides). Then there's the oceanic heat content. Satellite imagery from a few hours ago showed a blowup of thunderstorms near the center so Earl may very well be getting its act together. A few weather people on Twitter are talking about the chance of an RI. I'm not going to say whether or mot that will happen but nonetheless, it's still a threat for Belize, the Honduran coast and the southern Yucatan.
The water temps are well into the 80's, usually 84 on the Belizean and Honduran coasts so that's that high heat content.
