935 mb cyclone

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

There is a very powerful cyclone nearing Iceland right now. Its minimum pressure was yesterday at 18Z 935 mb and still dropping. UK Met Office forecast map shows it to become 932 mb cyclone later today. Well, I can hardly remember I have ever seen such deep cyclone in my neck of the woods. But of course, I've tracked cyclones over the web only during past 2 years. I think that Estonia is not directly under gun, we will have probably just its edge with some light gale force gusts and rain. But I feel sorry for UK and Iceland. In my opinion, we should get some nice readings from Ekofisk Oil Platform(ICAO code: ENEK) as storm approaches. I did a small forecast map about it based on GFS model. The system will break up to different 960 mb subcyclones next week and center currently with pressure in 930's will dissipate. Anyway it looks like this is something what Northern Europe definitely needs to watch.

Currently in Estonia it is cloudy with some breaks in the clouds. However, overhead it is still pretty low cloudiness, about 5 minutes ago, cloud base's temperature was 34°F while surface air temperature is 44°F. Wind has calmed down after a very windy weekend. More winds expected next week.

 

[Paul Knightley]

It certainly is a deep low and will bring the British Isles some windy weather, although generally nothing too bad. Western Scotland has recorded gusts of 74mph this morning, and a small island/rock called North Rona (just north of Scotland) has recorded a gust of 114mph - again, pretty strong, but not out of the ordinary for that particular place.

Out of interest, the deepest Atlantic storm was back in 1993, when one got to about 913 hPa between Iceland and Scotland - an oil tanker was smashed up on the Shetland Isles.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

National Weather Service says that the cyclone is now 928 mb. They expect winds to 75 kt winds in their forecast area related to the cyclone.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Here's an analysis valid 15Z, based on synop reports. Not sure how the contours are being calculated since that's a pretty data void region. Wind barbs are sustained winds, gusts weren't available for me to plot.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Yep, what I heard from NWS, minimum central pressure is actually lower. But still, it shows that pressure gradient is pretty tight... so away from the center, I guess it would be very windy

 

[Marko Korosec]

I've been watching and expecting this system for several days now, wish i'd have more time these days...would be in Reykjavik now for sure. Would love to experience such low pressure once!

One analysis at 18z has a minimum at 935hPa:

UKMO has it at 932hPa on the 12z map..



Wonder why there are such differences, here is another 12z analysis from NCEP/OPC...it has it at 928hPa!

And a nice looking satellite image of this system with its long cold front..



North Rona island is an excelent spot for these things, gusts exceeding 100mph are not so rare thing, agree on that.

Tarmo,
on Jan 16th 1999 was one deep system between Iceland and Scotland, similar to that one Paul mentioned...it had a minimum pressure around 925hPa. Wish we'd have data from North Rona station that day....

 

[Jim Tang]

This low has shown up in models for quite some time now. Very impressive indeed.

Marko, where did you get the satellite image?

 

[Marko Korosec]

Marko, where did you get the satellite image?

I got it here: http://www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp2.html

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Norwegian Meteorological Institute said about the cyclone at 18Z yesterday: Storm centre 938 hPa, 62 north 32 west, moving eastwards at 10 knots and weakening slowly.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

I don't know if this is the same cyclone or a sub cyclone of it, but Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute put 3 hours ago whole Estonia under a storm warning. Gusts expected to reach 44 mph inland, at the coast 62 mph.