9/30/05 NOW: NW TX-SW OK

[Adam Atkins]

Surface based development has finally occurred near Throckmorton Co. after much needed low level moisture has finally provided enough instability to break the cap in a localized area. Dyess and Vance VAD both show dramatically veering wind profiles in the 0-6 km range. The low level shear looks adaquate for tornadoes but dewpoint depressions remain near 20 deg. F. I can imagine this storm will quickly become supercellular in a big way if it can remain isolated. An increased LLJ and lower LCL's in the next few hours may enhance the severity of the storm as well. Chasers will be dissappointed because sunset is approximately 30 minutes away, which is always a risk in the fall.

EDIT: Strong mid-level mesocyclone already evident just minutes after development not surprising due to the impressive deep layer shear.

 

[nickgrillo]

The storm near Knox City is already showing a supercellular appearance on radar. A nice SFC moist axis characterized by 60-70F dewpoints is evident from about BWD to JWG. Obviously, the fairly large dewpoint depressions will decrease tornado potential... Not totally unlikely that a brief tornado will occur, especially with the relatively good 0-1KM SRH (200-350M2/S2) -- but the dp depressions and associated high LCLs will certainly limit this potential.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Storms are 'mostly' isolated/localized, and have already given off numerous Hail Reports biggest Hail being 1.00 in. Tornadoes are possible but unlikely in this given situation. I can tell that it is taking on a supercell formation based on RAD, but I can not decide if it's Classic or HP...I'm leening towards a classic supercell...still it's hard to tell supercells (for me) on radar. The storm near Knox/King County has EXTREMELY high dBZ values, and has just earned two meso rings. Rotation is very strong and evident in this storm...pretty nice organized rotation/mesocyclone. Looks like a hook could be beginning to form on the southwest side of the storm.

 

[Andrew Khan]

I've never seen so many couplets at one time, rotation is extremely strong, and in many places. I'm thinking that the Knox county supercell could be an HP...The one above in OK has got a Tornadic Vortex Signature, and looks like it's developing a hook.

 

[Scott Olson]

100kts of rotational velocity showing up near New Cordell. Storm approaching red springs also seems to show pretty strong mid-level mesocyclone in progress.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Tornado Warning Just issued for Baylor County, TX.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Im talking with a friend on the phone who is in Roundtimber about 15 miles SE of Seymour. Sirens were sounded in Seymour and he sees a large rain shaft with lowering near FM 422 and FM 1790 and 114 area. Most likely rain wrapped if a tornado is indeed there. Lightning is incredible with these storms.

 

[nickgrillo]

Very nice isolated and established potentially-tornadic supercell in a prime area. SBCAPE is still hanging around 1500J/KG across the region (with steep 7C/KM mid-level lapse rates), with 40kt southerly flow at 850mb. In addition, a moist axis, characterized by SFC Tds into the upper 60s, and a high theta-e boundary layer will continue the potential for supercells. Very moist and favorable southeasterly low-level inflow will help the tornado potential - with 300-500M2/S2 SRH.

 

[Andrew Khan]

I'm wondering if this thing has produced yet. It's been tornado warned for a while, and it has extremely strong rotation in that area. I might be seeing a hook echo in the warning vicinity. If it hasn't it's been trying really hard. There has got to be a wall cloud/lowering with this somewhere...

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Im listening to spotters here in the Wichita Falls area and they have reported no tornado. Lots of rain wrapped areas and blowing dust obscuring the view. Also the actual hail reports havent gone over anything quarter size but im sure it is larger. Looks like it is doing a reorganizing stage in E part of Baylor county on into Archer. Will be interesting to see if it gets back another warning. Also storm out near Aspermont is getting better organized.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

They are saying the mid level and low level striations are incredible. Storm nea Cache Oklahoma is now tornado warned as well. Comanche county.

 

[Shane Adams]

Been guiding Mickey Ptak to towards the Caddo/Canadian county storm. Just relayed the t-warning in Commanche Co to him and he is currently in route for intercept southbound from El Reno on US81. Instructed him to call when he gets to Tuttle for further details.

 

[nickgrillo]

SFC mesoanalysis shows LCLs have dropped dramatically in the past hour, from 1200m~ to 800m~ across nw TX/sw OK! Of course, this will help any potential tornadoes to touch down. Given relatively strong low-level shear of 350-600M2/S2 (!) and a favorabley moist/unstable airmass with STRONG backing SFC flow, the threat for tornadoes appear to be INCREASING - which is pretty cool.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Jason A.C. Brock
They are saying the mid level and low level striations are incredible. Storm nea Cache Oklahoma is now tornado warned as well. Comanche county.

How can the spotters see them at night? Lightning, I suppose. The tornado warning in OK, has formed a fantastic Hook Echo region, go check it out!

 

[Shane Adams]

Commanche Co, OK storm appears to have made a hard right turn via latest reflectivity loop on wxtap.