8/9/2004 NOW: GREAT LAKES/CANADA

GOES rapid-scan showing nice CU development over Wisconsin along the front, with storms gathering a little momentum over northern WI / western UP.
 
The Severe T-Storm watch has been extended to another Nova Scotia county in the last hour. Chasers are reporting heaving rain, hail and the odd funnel cloud. The Radar shows scattered cells around. Quite a bit of rain in one area.
 
Tornado box up for eastern CO, perhaps we want to expand the scope of this NOW thread? Looks like things might be initiating there shortly.
 
CO is not related to the Great Lakes event - that'd get its own thread.

Back home - dew points into the mid-60's now in SW Mich, nice southerly winds ahead of the front and west-southwest behind it over WI. Not bad setup. RUC showing better lapse rates than earlier forecasts.

- Rob
 
18Z RUC shows pretty good increase in moisture convergence around 00-03Z across lower MI, with lapse rates steepening... Instability and wind fields still looking good, just need to watch the VIS loop and radar....
 
Severe Thunderstorm warnings have been issued for northern Nova Scotia. Heavy rain and hail in excess of 2 centimetres in diameter have been reported. Wind gusts at about 90km/h have also been reported. However it looks like the storms are dying out.
 
Hail in Nova Scotia? That's a bit unusual isn't it? Then again Nova Scotia gets all kinds of crazy weather... radar image looks pretty tame right now even though severe thunderstorm watches are up for both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Jared
 
Just when I'm ready to throw in the towel and enjoy the evening - Chicago starts to get active!
 
Yeah, but I think the potential for anything big is pretty much gone. What a waste of good August wind fields! If it wasn't for the previous storm system (another bust), maybe there would have been more low level moisture to work with...
 
Just when I'm ready to throw in the towel and enjoy the evening - Chicago starts to get active!

Then again, it does look like some of those cumulus clouds in the past few scans of the SAT could take off...
 
Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued for De Witt
County in central Illinois for the storms that recently form.
Edit for Logan and Menard Counties now warned.

Mike
 
Actually mid-level rotation looks quite nice - L2!

I can see the storm quite nicely from my place 50 miles away, talk about a rare event...

- Rob
 
Actually mid-level rotation looks quite nice - L2!

I can see the storm quite nicely from my place 50 miles away, talk about a rare event...

- Rob

Ohh... Didn't check mid-level rotation lol.

Yeah, I sure wish I was on that cell right now, even if there is no TOR, from where I am, it would take a good 3 hours to get there, and it would be dark...
 
It's at a bad angle for road structure around here... I'm holding out hope for the stuff now near BEH - but still reserving the right to shoot up 127 if the GRR cell stays hefty!

6-8 degree tilts show nice rotation and very slanted tops!

---
Gotta let that one go, it's an hour from here to Montalm Co and with this storm moving northeast instead of east I'll never catch it. Still looking good for the next batch.

- Rob
 
Most of these cells appear to be splitting, with right moving cells dominate. The cell northeast of LAN still looking pretty good, it did appear to weaken slightly, but its now back in business, with several appendages - Best couplet on the SRV appears to be at the 1.5 scan...

GRR VAD shows very good directional shear in the lower 0-3KM layer, with S to SSE SFC winds, veering to the west between 4K and 15K feet...

Soundings from the 23Z 1HR forecast RUC, modified for SFC parcels based on OBS indicate 1800-2000J/KG of CAPE still available...
 
The one to my NW still looks visually very impressive side-lit. The one just south of GRR looks beautiful - but not strong.

I think I'm targeting the one south of Allegan as I'm about ready to head out the door and south on I-69.
 
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