8-27-04 NOW: IA-KS-MO-OK

[mikegeukes]

Started a now thread for the Kansas and Missouri area,
since I notice some discussions for todays activity was
in the 8-21-04 now thread.

WW 792 and WW 793 have been issued for the area.
A few svr tstm wrngs attm in northern MO and the STL area.
Strong storms also occurring in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Another areas to watch is parts of Illinois, and Oklahoma.

WW 794 for Oklahoma

Mike

 

[Bob Schafer]

The parameters for tornadoes are weaker (vs yesterday) in the NE KS/NW MO/SW IA corridor, but stranger things have happened.

Strongest parameters are in NE KS, where current cu fields bear watching.

Even there, directional shear is minimal, and sfc winds are weak, but watch for LLJ to increase them.

I see 0-3km SR helicities of 200, but I'm scratching my head wondering where that comes from. Just some nice, brisk mid/upper wind strengths, I gather.

Another odd thing is estimated storm motion of about 270-ish, when ALL wind fields (up to 300mb, anyway) are from S of that vector.

My WAG: MCS will be the mode much earlier than last night.

Bob

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Isolated storms are trying to go up west of OKC in the new SVR Watch box area. Looking at VADs and profilers (and RUC analyses), it looks like there's maybe 15kt 0-6k shear... Winds at all levels are very weak, so the only "favorable" parameter is the strong instability. Even this, however, is likely strongly-tied to radiational/solar/diurnal heating. I can't imagine any storm staying severe for much over 25-30 minutes maybe. T-Td depressions are pretty large, so I'd think, combined with the strong instability, that severe wind gusts are the biggest threat, though the weak environmental flow doesn't favor that too much...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

For the most part, it looks like these are developing as large clusters over Missouri in the unidirectional and very weak shear currently on the board.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/di...on=ict&nplots=1

Storms are now developing just west of Kansas City that are moving into a slightly better wind environment, but not by much - will keep an eye on them in the hopes that instability can overcome the weaker winds. Of course, I'm still stuck at work for the second night in a row.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well at least we get some pretty, elevated hailers to entertain us for a while ... looks like I missed the best shot of the week last night. There's always October, though ... and this year, maybe even the rest of August and September at the rate we've been going - - -

Hope everyone has a good weekend -

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well believe it or not - this storm over KC actually has produced a very nice little wall cloud to the SW of downtown in the last few minutes ... from our position the downdraft is now obscurring it ... but it was most definitely there ... a little on the high side, but eh - I'll take it.

 

[David Schuttler]

Edited old out

AT 739 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO 20 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS CITY...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WELLINGTON.
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH

 

[mikegeukes]

Kansas Tornado Reports: (6)
755 PM CDT 3 miles south of Wellington in Sumner County KS
755 PM CDT Wellington in Sumer County KS
749 PM CDT 3 miles south of Wellington in Sumner County KS
737 PM CDT 1 mile east of Oxford in Sumner County KS
730 PM CDT 3 miles south of Wellington in Sumner County KS
709 PM CDT 1 mile south of Udall in Cowley County KS

Mike

 

[Bob Schafer]

The tornado risk looks to be much reduced attm, as MCS and massive cold pools prevail, but the rainfall is ridiculous.

There are vast areas of storm-total radar-indicated rainfall in excess of 4", 5", and even one pixel in N MO indicating >8".

 

[Mike Smith]

KWCH TV chase teams caught the tornadoes near Udall. There was damage to two homes along with trees, powerlines, etc. KWCH viewers photographed the tornadoes near Wellington.

The Kansas City Star has a report on the extensive flooding in Kansas City, go to: www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/9519354.htm . Take a look at EAX storm total precipitation.