8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[cedwards]

Originally posted by rdewey
I strongly believe that this thing will not weaken before making landfall, probably hitting the U.S. coast with 175-180MPH maximum sustained winds, with gusts in excess of 200MPH.

I wonder what will happen to some of the shelters if this happens. CNN reported that the Superdome is designed to withstand 200mph winds. Is that gusts or sustained? Can it handle 160+mph winds for hours with a few 200+mph gusts?

 

[Robert Balogh]

Lets hope

Unbelievable - the storm that Floridians were poo-pooing when it was barely a category 1 a few days ago now might turn out to be the ultimate hurricane nightmare - a direct category 5 hit on New Orleans

If so, the damage and loss of life could make Andrew and Hugo look like nothing

I hope this thing makes a turn and blows itself out over the swamps

And I hope that nobody is even considering "chasing" in this lowlying area. Not only would it be incredibly stupid (reckless as opposed to the calculated risk of a tornado chase), but think what a bad name it would give all the rest of the hobby - so, if youre thinking about it, DONT, for all of us

 

[Alex Lamers]

Re: Lets hope

Originally posted by Robert Balogh
Unbelievable - the storm that Floridians were poo-pooing when it was barely a category 1 a few days ago now might turn out to be the ultimate hurricane nightmare - a direct category 5 hit on New Orleans

It's like a reverse Andrew.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by cedwards+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(cedwards)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

I strongly believe that this thing will not weaken before making landfall, probably hitting the U.S. coast with 175-180MPH maximum sustained winds, with gusts in excess of 200MPH.

I wonder what will happen to some of the shelters if this happens. CNN reported that the Superdome is designed to withstand 200mph winds. Is that gusts or sustained? Can it handle 160+mph winds for hours with a few 200+mph gusts?[/b]

Aaron posted this same question in another thread: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic....?t=8016&start=0

Some say 130MPH (probably sustained) is the max, before things start coming down. I really have my doubts that it will survive a 175MPH sustained wind, with frequent gusts above 200MPH.

I just have horrible visions of them filling that dome up with people, and then something horrible happening (i.e. collapsing, filling up with water, whatever).

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

From New Orleans Mayor Nagin,
“This is a once in a lifetime event,â€￾ the mayor said. “The city of New Orleans has never seen a hurricane of this magnitude hit it directly.â€￾

Let's hope the elderly and homeless have a safe place to go.

Great looking sat pic here:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

And loop:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satr...rleans&type=vis


If you're chasing, please do it safely.

Ridge

 

[Brandon Clement]

The superdome was built to withstand sustained winds greater than 200 mph. It is solid steel and concrete. It is the one and only place I would feel comfortable in a storm like this. I will not be chasing this thing if it stays on its current path, because even if I found a safe place in New Orleans or south I would be stuck there for a very long time.

 

[Scott Olson]

The consensus track is still to the left of the NHC track which is just east of NO. So I wouldn't be suprised to see the offical track adjust oh so slightly west. Which would be bad for New Orleans and bad for oil prices, putting the expected eyewall to pass over LOOP oil terminal, dozens of platforms (a lot more have already been evacuated or shutdown being in the hurricane wind radai) and Fourchon Terminal.

 

[Alex Lamers]

http://kamala.cod.edu/la/latest.wwus74.KLIX.html

New NPW Urgent Weather Message from LIX is incredible. They are stressing almost certain death if you are outside in this storm. Perhaps a hint for Mike Seidel or Morrow or whoever they have there?

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

We have started a special Katrina board on Stormtrack. However Stormtrack users may continue to post to Map Room since it offers a higher standard of quality. It's your choice where you'd like to post.

 

[Robert Balogh]

Even so

Originally posted by Brandon Clement
The superdome was built to withstand sustained winds greater than 200 mph. It is solid steel and concrete. It is the one and only place I would feel comfortable in a storm like this. I will not be chasing this thing if it stays on its current path, because even if I found a safe place in New Orleans or south I would be stuck there for a very long time.

So you're now in the intact Superdome - with no electricity, in the middle of a 100 mile wide swamp under 10-20 feet of water, and it's 90-100 degrees outside. Now what?

 

[Austin Ivey]

Central pressure down to 906mb. Forward motion increased to 13mph. The increased forward speed is worrisome..the farther it gets west before turning north enhances the risk of a direct hit to NO.

 

[Brandon Clement]

So you're now in the intact Superdome - with no electricity, in the middle of a 100 mile wide swamp under 10-20 feet of water, and it's 90-100 degrees outside. Now what?

Well Robert, I would probrably be infested with mesquitos, swamp water, debris, gas leaks, fire, smoke, mud, snakes, alligators, some pretty nasty people, the national guard running things like a prison, sweat, lack of food, water, diseases we have never heard of and who knows we could all be eating each other before it is all said and done. Like I said it is the one place I would feel safe for a storm like this, but would not go there because I would be stuck there for weeks.

I know during Hurricane Andrew and Lilly that the Superdome became flooded with people that had no other place to go. There were fights, theft and just bad behavior. The national guard will probrably be patting people down and checking bags and then they are going to treat people like prisoners. New Orleans has some of the roughest people in the country and they are going to be a large portion of the people in the Superdome.

I wonder what FEMA is going to do after the storm? There could be a million houses destroyed and many of their mobile homes that they have stockpiled for a disaster like this are already in use from last seasons hurricanes. I don't see how they could possibly aid all of the victims from this storm. People will truly be homeless for a very long time. I know most of my friends and family from south La are not even planning on going home if it is going to be as bad as we think it is. My dad has already determined that he is going to lose his home and business if the eye passes over or near Mandeville.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

In response to Brandon's post I wonder how FEMA is going to move people ... when we see a hurricane make an impact upon Florida, for example, immediately we see the set up and production of Tent Cities ... with NO as a bowl won't they have to get people out in the future if there's truly no place to set up facilities in a flooded city? No land, no tents ... now that's worrisome.

I suppose utilizing high rise buildings?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Let's try to keep this thread at least somewhat about the forecast of Katrina. There are a couple of threads in the special Katrina forum that may be used for a discussion of emergency response services and high-rise survivability.

 

[MClarkson]

the plane that just flew through the eye reported a difference between pressure altitude and true altitude 200 feet more than last time. It appears pressure is still going down.

It looks almost perfect on satellite... both VIS and IR.

It could go through an eyewall cycle, lose 20mb and 20 knots... and still be a cat 5!

I think the only thing left now is to watch radar and see where it wobbles ashore.

EDIT: 902 mb based on the latest vortex. Amazing.