8/18/05: NOW: Great Lakes Area

[Joe Nield]

I have good friends in Beloit. Am so thankful they were missed. My heart goes out to those not so fortunate.

Question: Are the homes up there structurly strong? I would think so because of the cold, but have not been up there. I know this is very important in rating the damage. TWC pics are not telling me the whole story.

With the potential for a final rating in excess of F3, I believe a Quick Response Team will, or probably already has been, dispatched to the area. As was mentioned earlier, some of the most significant damage I've seen on newscasts appears to be good F4, but the QRT people are very well versed in these sorts of things, and will help make that final determination with confidence.

For more information, see the following:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/wcm_jobaid/qrt-short.shtml

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Umm, I have a question.

Supercell Thunderstorm? Yes
Dissapated of Lake Michigan? Yes
Squall line did not form from this cell, formed from cells in upper wisconsin
Tornado watch all night, yes its very possible, couldve had a tornado threat all night, NWS may not have cancelled it and let it expire. It got cancelled and never updated.

How can there be one what?

 

[nickgrillo]

Umm, I have a question. Last night I watched the storms in WI for the longest period of time. I saw it get nearer and nearer to Lake Michigan. was there in fact a supercell thunderstorm? As it got onto lake Michigan, did it get stronger, or did it weaken? I was thinking the supercell completely dissipated, and in it's place, a squall line developed, am I correct. But last night here, at about 12:00 Eastern Time, Michigan Western Michigan, was under a Tornado Watch...and then when I woke up this morning, they were still under the warning...the exact same area. How is this possible? Overnight, would it have not cross completely over the MI area? How can that watch still be their, when the storm was on lake MI, at 12:00 last night?


I also heard that one of these tornados was an F3-F4, is that correct, and their was 1 fatality, and 12-13 injuries from this. How many tornados were developed in this outbreak in WI? Was the strongest an F4? That specific storm finished moving across, and so, how can their be one?

Well, that supercell from southeast WI blew itself apart immediately upon entering lake MI... This happens with ALOT of storms. Also, the squall line was already developed over eastern WI, and then moved into western MI - with some more convection developing behind it over the lake. The tornado watch was cancelled, probably once the SPC realized that nothing was organizing in northern/central MI, which is where all the convection was. All things were pointing to supercells/damaging winds across lower MI last night, but, it didn't happen...

There was about 26 reported tornadoes in WI -- but that is the reported number... So, the actual count will change once surveys are completed.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I think I heard that the NWS is investigating 18 reports of tornadoes, so I believe the actual number is slightly less than the initial 26 reports, which often does happen. Often times several reports will come in off of one tornado, which I'm sure was the case with the Stoughton tornado with it's long track.

 

[Brett Adair]

I know yesterday afternoon was VERY VERY long and hard for folks in portions of WI, but I was tracking these tornadoes with Alex Lamers and I had to post this image of the debris knob that I captured near Viola, WI.



I wish I would have been home around the time that the Stroughton, WI tornado were down. This color table really brings out everything. Thanks to the developer, Fred Gossage of the 256 color VIPIR table.

 

[rdale]

"All things were pointing to supercells/damaging winds across lower MI last night, but, it didn't happen..."

All SPC numeric output did - but not an analysis of the setup...

 

[Alex Lamers]

The preliminary ruling on the Stoughton tornado was an F3 with winds around 200 mph I believe. However, remember that these can change for final rulings as they did on June 23 2004 event when several were upgraded (one from an F2 to F3).

F3 is 158-206 mph winds so this would be an exceptionally strong F3 and the damage is probably near that blurred F3/F4 line. Weighing all the evidence and building construction will be key to the final intensity rating.

An F2 was also found in vernon county.

Waiting on the remainder of the summaries from MKX.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[mikegeukes]

Deleted, move it to Weather Lab:
http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7932

Mike