8/13/05 FCST: Tropical Depression 10 (dissipated)

Here we go again...
The record setting season continues as advisories will be initiated at 21z for TD 10 - located about 900 miles to the east of the lesser antilles. Satellite presentation is pretty impressive, with fairly deep convection around the low-level center. A developing band of deeper convection is located on the east side of the circulation and has been getting better organized all day. With SSTs progged to be increasing along the storms path and light shear (at least thru 36h), it seems we have a Jose in the making. Incredible.
 
It really is amazing. Seems like we're always tracking the first big hurricane in the middle of August.
According to NHC, we could have a 70K hurricane (Jose) by 120H with a turn toward the west - northwest.
 
And.... as quickly as it formed, TD10 is no more; advisories have been discontinued due to the toll taken on the circulation by shear. All models forecasted the dissipation of this system, and without a major relaxation of the shear (not at all likely), regeneration is not probable - at least at this time. If the circulation can hold itself together through the 30kt shear environment for a day or so, then it will return to an area of lower shear and maybe have a chance. However, it is uncommon for us to go to through nine names without one single undeveloped depression, but as we all know, 2005 has been an abnormally abnormal season.
 
I still think this system will eventually make it to the Florida area sometime next week. I have no idea if it will be as a well-organized tropical system, or as a mere shot of moisture with a slight turn of the winds, to aid in typical seasonal diurnal thunderstorm development. A few things seem pretty clear though. The ridge that Irene made her way through is building back in, and more locally (to Florida I mean), we have ridging progged to build in from the east and become the main player in our weather here; strengthening towards the end of the week. This will mark a pretty significant change in the regime we've had over the last several weeks, and lend itself to more westward steering for systems on the north side of the islands. Current model data on what was TD 10 appears to reflect this. However, all this ridging also seems to be bringing drying aloft. I don't have a very good understanding of that part of things, so I would like to hear more comments about moisture as it relates to this system.
 
Back
Top