10/1/05 FCST: Tropical Depression 19 (dissipated)

[Sam Sagnella]

Well the season goes on... advisories will be initiated at 21z on our newest addition to the 2005 family, the depression formerly known as Invest 90L; located at 11.8N, 32.9W, this is not the Caribbean wave (99L). The depression is currently well-organized with deep convection and banding features beginning to form. The latest SHIPS guidance brings 19 to TS status in 24hrs and indicates continued strengthening, bringing the cyclone up to 61kts by 120hrs. Steering currents are weak, but the depression should continue on a general WNW-NW track for the next couple days -- beyond that, its fate will be decided by the strength of the ridge located over the eastern North Atlantic.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Yuck.

TD19 looks terrible right now, with strong NWerly shear taking a significant toll. The system should be pulled to the north over the next couple of days with increasing shear for the majority of this period. Beyond that, if the cyclone still exists, the 12z GFDL shows an interesting scenario that a building ridge to the NW of 19 will pull it back to the east and then south in a clockwise loop over the far eastern atlantic, deepening it to ~975mb in the process.

As it stands now, I see little opportunity for this young system to survive in the long run as decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical shear will provide for a pretty hostile environment. I think that 19 likely was a TS at some point yesterday (though it doesn't matter much now), with an incredible satellite presentation for only a 25-30kt depression. T-numbers peaked at 2.5 at 12z today but since then there has been a significant decrease in organization. TD19 had its chance, and I have a hard time believing that any scenario other than a slow and painful shear-induced death will pan out.

 

[Scott Olson]

Looks like SHIPS is no longer an outlier and that TD19 is now disappating.