8/13/04 NOW: Charley [Florida]

[Zach Bailey]

Good Lord. Looks like the rapid deepening trend has indeed continued and that eyewall replacement cycle has really added some punch to Charley.

Hopefully Charley won't pull an Andrew and strengthen even more as it comes inland (more info here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html, Look for paragraph that starts with "Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion...")

 

[Jeff Snyder]

LOL ... Ok, so the 965mb pressure report fit a 125mph better... And I was thinking that it'd be anomolous for a 145mph hurricane to only have a 965mb center... However, I just heard that the latest pressure report is down to 954 ... Now THAT'S some rapid strengthening...

 

[Zach Bailey]

Latest dropsonde and hurricane hunter aircraft reports available here:


http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wxdata.htm

Edit: The latest report states that the dewpoint inside the eye is 11*C, or a cool 51.8*F...that's impressive! (Oops, nevermind....that's at flight level )

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Just heard, Charley is now a Cat 4. :shock:

 

[rdale]

"This is a live video feed from Channel 10's back up station site. "

Unfortunately the met has no idea what he's doing... I'm not sure if it's lack of data, or no hurricane experience, but he doesn't sound very good. He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone... not aware that NHC made that one an hour ago based on recon. And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.

- Rob

 

[rdale]

Now he's saying that the recon planes don't fly over land because of fear of tornadoes??? Don't tornadoes in hurricanes form over water just as well as over land?

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I'm really starting to worry about what's gonna happen here in Orlando now. Category 4 at landfall could translate to winds as high as category 2 here. About the only positive I can see at this time is that it MAY pass to the our south. But tornadoes are starting to pop up all over the place. Talk about armegeddon...

I'll try to post updates as long as power and internet hold out.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

This is getting very troubling. Extrapolation brings the hurricane ashore near Pine Island or Sanibel Island in less than 3 hours. That would drive a significant storm surge up the Caloosahatchee River, doing major damage in Ft Meyers/Cape Coral, as well as flood a number of residential areas on the outlying coast. My impression watching TV and listening to Tampa radio is that the attention has been on Tampa - St. Pete as opposed to Fort Myers, and people down there are not prepared for a cat. 4. Let's hope this somehow weakens or slips ashore in a relatively unpopulated area.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone... not aware that NHC made that one an hour ago based on recon. And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.

:dontknow: :shock:

I know I'm not meterologically inclined but that just does not make any sense to me at all?????

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Andrew Screwed Him

He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone

Sounds like Hurricane Andrew screwed him up really bad... :lol: Thank goodness he didn't use the F scale like we do for tornadoes.

And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.

Sounds like a first time storm/hurricane chaser to me! He really needs to get back behind the camera where he belongs!!

LJK.

 

[rdale]

The news anchor is the one who talked about hundreds of tornadoes, the met talked about '67 and '74? (feed dropped out) having hurricanes with major tor's but I didn't hear enough to figure out what he had.

- Rob

 

[Lorraine Evans]

Does anyone have a live radio/ tv feed link that I could have the link for in fort myers or surrounding area?

 

[rdale]

From NHC's FAQ

Subject : L7) What is the largest known outbreak of TC tornadoes?
Contributed by Bill McCaul

Hurricane Beulah spawned a reported 141 tornadoes in southeast Texas during the first several days after its landfall in September 1967 (Orton 1970). This number of tornadoes represents one of the largest tornado outbreaks of any kind in the U. S. tornado climatology. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew spawned 62 tornadoes. It is difficult to predict which TCs will produce large tornado outbreaks, although there is some indication that the likelihood of a major outbreak increases as TC size and intensity increase.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Currents on Charley-

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 82.4W AT 13/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 82.4W AT 13/1800Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

[David Draun]

Is the tornadic threat higher than usual for a hurricane? On the radar I see NUMEROUS severe-looking thunderstorms all over the place. :shock: :shock: When have other hurricanes, if any, produced signficant tornado outbreaks in the past? I heard Bonnie produced several dozen tornadoes all over FL and GA! :shock: :shock:

Also, I was vacationing down there (Ft Meyers/Sanibel/barrier islands) not more than 5 weeks ago. I will go back down there next year. Should I expect some drastic changes to the landscape?