8/13/04 NOW: Charley [Florida]

Good grief...that's not going to be good on the Bay from the storm surge.
 
If this thing ramps right up the bay, all that storm surge could be catastrophic. However, Charley is traveling at such an oblique angle towards the coast that even small movements or wobbles to the east or west could mean 10-20 miles difference as to where the eye comes ashore.
 
Just saw a dropsonde report come across with 965mb, which if accurate would be a 5-mb drop in just two hours!
 
Just saw a dropsonde report come across with 965mb, which if accurate would be a 5-mb drop in just two hours!

Wow. IIRC, that classifies as rapid deepening. Things aren't looking good for the sunshine state...

On another note, a TOR warning is up for key west...sig. wording includes mention of a "violent waterspout" and/or multiple tornadoes.
 
The TOR was cancelled shortly after it was issued - looked like a quick rotating cell was going to develop but it moved through so fast it probably didn't have time to tor ;>
 
I'd like to see some of the storm make it on shore, but don't have access to any TV (since I am at work). I tried finding some webcams in the storms path around Florida instead. Will add some others as the storm progresses, if this is even information people want.

FL:
http://www.wxnation.com/tampa/
http://www.wxnation.com/jacksonville/

Fort Myers Beach Webcam:
http://web.naplesnews.com/webcam/ftmyers_beach/
http://web.naplesnews.com/sections/webcams/front.html

Will see if I can find any mroe for other cities in the path in Florida.
 
Thanks Anthony! I'm in the same position, at work without access to TV info. I appreciate being able to look at anything right now!
 
I lost my cable.......NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Darn construction!!! At least I can still track via the Net, as long as they leave the phone lines alone. :evil:
 
A nice line of storms that had some good rotation to them (appears to be weakening slightly) devoloped and earned numerous TOR's.

Numerous tornadoes have been sighted by Law Enforcement across SW Florida.

Charlie looks pretty meen on radar. :eek:
 
Latest public advisory (valid 1am Eastern time) that the storm is up to Cat 3 w/ 125mph winds ... Pressure's at 964mb, which seems to fit a 125mph hurricane considerably better than a 105mph hurricane. The hurricane winds are relatively compact in area, as even 74mph winds only extend to 30miles outside of the eye, so the >120mph winds probably extend about 1 mile from the eye... On it's current track, it seems to even want to hit south of Fort Myers as it really is taking a right-hand turn...
 
Latest public advisory (valid 1am Eastern time) that the storm is up to Cat 3 w/ 125mph winds ... Pressure's at 964mb, which seems to fit a 125mph hurricane considerably better than a 105mph hurricane. The hurricane winds are relatively compact in area, as even 74mph winds only extend to 30miles outside of the eye, so the >120mph winds probably extend about 1 mile from the eye... On it's current track, it seems to even want to hit south of Fort Myers as it really is taking a right-hand turn...

Just posted a similar statement under forecast, but again, I think the rightward jog in motion is just an eyewall wobble because of a temporary breakdown in western eyewall convection - I seriously doubt Ft. Meyers will get a direct hit - track should stay well west of there IMO.

Glen
 
WOW!

WTNT61 KNHC 131716
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A
DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

LAWRENCE
WWWW

Guess the pressure drops we saw earlier were real! I"m amazed at how this thing has blown up in just a few hours...

- Rob
 
NWS radar showing intensity

Just looked at the NWS radar out of Key West FL. The last outer band of showers had just cleared the Key Islands. Thank God for that! I've seen in the last two hours some serious intensification in the center core of the hurricane. The eyewall was opened for a short while then it reformed. And the inner core is showing greater intensity now. That would explain the sudden increase in wind speed. Now what are the chances of Charley becoming a F-5, sorry wrong term :oops: , a CAT 5??
 
Good Lord. Looks like the rapid deepening trend has indeed continued and that eyewall replacement cycle has really added some punch to Charley.

Hopefully Charley won't pull an Andrew and strengthen even more as it comes inland (more info here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html, Look for paragraph that starts with "Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion...")
 
LOL ... Ok, so the 965mb pressure report fit a 125mph better... And I was thinking that it'd be anomolous for a 145mph hurricane to only have a 965mb center... However, I just heard that the latest pressure report is down to 954 ... Now THAT'S some rapid strengthening...
 
"This is a live video feed from Channel 10's back up station site. "

Unfortunately the met has no idea what he's doing... I'm not sure if it's lack of data, or no hurricane experience, but he doesn't sound very good. He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone... not aware that NHC made that one an hour ago based on recon. And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.

- Rob
 
Now he's saying that the recon planes don't fly over land because of fear of tornadoes??? Don't tornadoes in hurricanes form over water just as well as over land?
 
I'm really starting to worry about what's gonna happen here in Orlando now. Category 4 at landfall could translate to winds as high as category 2 here. About the only positive I can see at this time is that it MAY pass to the our south. But tornadoes are starting to pop up all over the place. Talk about armegeddon...

I'll try to post updates as long as power and internet hold out.
 
This is getting very troubling. Extrapolation brings the hurricane ashore near Pine Island or Sanibel Island in less than 3 hours. That would drive a significant storm surge up the Caloosahatchee River, doing major damage in Ft Meyers/Cape Coral, as well as flood a number of residential areas on the outlying coast. My impression watching TV and listening to Tampa radio is that the attention has been on Tampa - St. Pete as opposed to Fort Myers, and people down there are not prepared for a cat. 4. Let's hope this somehow weakens or slips ashore in a relatively unpopulated area.
 
He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone... not aware that NHC made that one an hour ago based on recon. And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.


:dontknow: :shock:

I know I'm not meterologically inclined but that just does not make any sense to me at all?????
 
Andrew Screwed Him

He's now saying that Hurricane Alley is making a Cat 4 declaration based on a vortex message alone

Sounds like Hurricane Andrew screwed him up really bad... :lol: Thank goodness he didn't use the F scale like we do for tornadoes.

And the anchor is talking about the possibilities of "hundreds of tornadoes" across the state today.

Sounds like a first time storm/hurricane chaser to me! He really needs to get back behind the camera where he belongs!!

LJK.
 
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