8/10/2004 FCST: High Plains, Central Plains

Another busy day in store as SPC has opened the MOD RISK for parts of Southeastern Colorado, Southwestern Kansas, and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A 5% tornado risk stretches a bit beyond that in Colorado and covers the MOD RISK bubble. Hail seems to be the biggest issue today as SPC is saying stones as big as 3 inches. A report near Agate yesterday had hail at 4.5 inches, so much of the same possible today.

Pretty much the same setup exists today for the Eastern Plains, however, I would say that most of the action will be a bit further east and south than yesterday's tornadoes. Good CAPE and shear will be in place across the entire MOD RISK area giving way to a good chance of supercells with isolated tornadoes and very very large hail.

Could be a hailuva day today! Watch out for those heading out!
 
Thought I'd toss this in.. a small piece of the AFD from Denver of this morning...

IF WE DO GET THINGS GOING...CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG WITH 78/55 T/TD AND
0-6KM SHEAR INCREDIBLY STRONG NEAR 30M/S. STORMS WOULD HAVE VERY
STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL LIKE WE
SAW YESTERDAY...HAD TWO REPORTS OF SOFTBALLS. WILL ALSO MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL STORM INFLOW AND
HELICITIES ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. A DEGREE OR TWO
COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE TODAY...SO STAY TUNED.

This may be Day 2 of an Eastern Plains Outbreak!
 
Cool.. just got the green light for today and will be heading out around 1:00p for Limon, Colorado. Anyone out, drop me a line here, I'll have a few checks before I leave.
 
I plan on leaving at 3pm and heading out to whatever cell is dominating so I hope things stay capped for a little while. I think Elbert county will be the place to be once again. If today is anything like yesterday it should be a fun chase!
 
Looks like

Looks like it's going to be an early morning for me. Storms aren't scheduled to arrive before midnight and more likely in the 3:00 a.m. (Oh Dark Hundred) zone on Northern Oklahoma.

There is a small chance of a storm firing up on boundries from a complex this morning, but I'm not too hopeful on that front.

Good luck to those running out this afternoon!

John
 
Cool! I see SPC has extended their MODERATE RISK into East Central Colorado, including the city of Limon! :) Ooo yeah!

Anywoo, plans as of now.. I took the rest of the day off work and am currently home where I am charging the video camera. Today's going to be about as casual as it gets.. just me and my video camera. Will have the laptop with me, but imagine I'll use very little of it. I am just going to enjoy what will be my final chase of 2004 and hope that it winds out the season just as I started it! :)

I am going to make a couple quick stops before heading out to Limon where I am hoping to be by 3:00pm. By then, I am hoping for at least a discussion on SPC to enlighten me. My laptop may come out just that once as I kill off time til initiation. I have also flirted with the idea to hang close to Watkins just east of Denver where a convergence zone will set up. I'm with others in thinking Elbert County will be the best place to be this afternoon and evening. Limon works best for me cause of road options (chasing in Eastern Colorado is very limited of those).

Good luck to anyone else heading out and maybe I'll be seeing you there. I'll probably kick up a NOW thread or post to one when I get to Limon and analyze what's going on! 8)
 
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