8/04/08 NOW: IL, IN, IA, NE, MI, WI, OH

[Danny Neal]

Destructive tornado-like wind producing bow echo is rapidly approaching the Chicago Metro area. Adam Lucio, I, and others are directly in the cross hairs for this potentially dangerous line of storms. No point in battling traffic to get into position as it will be charging into our neighborhoods within the next 90 minutes. Will post photos in a DISC thread later tonight if I have power.

 

[John Wetter]

SPC saying an upgrade to MDT is coming. Looks like we'll be seeing a pretty widespread damaging wind event. Seeing inbound velocities right now in the ~100kt ballpark at about 3500ft.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I am sitting here in Northwest Ohio, looks like this line of storms is following along the 5910m contour, anyone have an inclination as to where this line might furthur develop/track?

 

[Tony Laubach]

I am sitting here in Northwest Ohio, looks like this line of storms is following along the 5910m contour, anyone have an inclination as to where this line might furthur develop/track?

Hey Ryan,

I'm wrapping up my Hall of Fame trip and am here in Bowling Green watching this line. Based on what I am seeing, the line overall should weaken from its current state as it crosses through northern Indiana, however should still remain severe as it pushes through. I would expect this weakening to begin prior to crossing the IN/OH border as CAPE drops off significantly in these areas. Loss of daytime heating will be the ultimate factor in the weakening, but it looks as if parameters will remain in place to support the system as it moves eastward across the area maintaining a threat for damaging winds. I would estimate an arrival time around 1am give or take an hour in the northwest Ohio area from roughly Toledo southward to north of Dayton. Latest MD from SPC highlights potential in these areas as well and may lead to an additional WW from eastern IN/western OH.

From a non-scientific standpoint, my presence here oughta contribute to its complete death or a split of the complex to areas around here. LOL

 

[HAltschule]

Marine wind measurment just offshore of Chicago of 96 MPH. Widespread damage and structural damage in Chicago and now into NW Indiana. And the line is getting even more intense. SPC says MLCAPES as high as 6000 J/KG are present in parts of Indiana. WHEW...they are in trouble in the Midwest tonight. PDS Watch in effect.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Tony,

You can learn first hand tonight that there is a high pressure center always sitting over Bowling Green, OH.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Tony,

You can learn first hand tonight that there is a high pressure center always sitting over Bowling Green, OH.

Wonderful! Probably be the storm system that drops a nighttime tornado that blows away my hometown (Circleville) while I'm two hours away! LOL

Actually, the friend I am staying with here moved back here from Memphis earlier this year and she was with me on the Feb. 5 tornado outbreak in Tennessee, so perhaps her luck will carry over for tonight!

And the line has intensified per the reflectivity views... hmm... this could get interesting. A lot of distance between us and it, and I'm not terribly confident in this system maintaining this level of severity to the I-75 corridor, but perhaps I'll be surprised. This type of event doesn't bode well for me in terms of experience points, so I'm wishcasting more than anything right now.

Definitely exciting to see unfold and could perhaps ice off an already overloaded cake from this weekend.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Quite fascinating seeing the very persistent outward protrusion at the leading edge of the bow (nearing Rochester IN attm)! I would imagine that particularly damaging winds are occurring with this protrusion, and I wouldn't be surprised to see tornado damage associated with this as well (a la the Kansas City event a couple of months ago). The thermo is as explosive as it ever gets in this country -- check out the 8500 j/kg SBCAPE on the 00z ILX sounding or the 7000 j/kg MLCAPE on the DVN sounding. The tops of those storms have to be amazingly high; even the EL is near 100mb (~50,000 ft), so the level of tops of some of the storms must be well above 60,000 ft (remember, the EL is the level at which buoyancy, or positive upward acceleration, stops, so the updraft continues up to the point where the negative area above the EL equals ~50% of the CAPE, which is very, very high in those soundings).

 

[Tony Laubach]

Wow Jeff, that's insane! Looks like its current path will take it south of my location (Bowling Green) if it continues on its current track and intensity. Just drawing a straight line, I'll be lucky to get clipper by the northern end of this system when it does roll through.

A few storms are popping up in central Ohio in Franklin, Pickaway, and Madison counties. Not expecting these to do a whole lot, but worth a mention as the enviornment seems to be very condusive for development well ahead of the Indiana MCS.​

 

[Dann Cianca]

Another nice cell has formed on the north side of Chicago ... the Cubs game just got "rain-delayed" again ... but only because lightning struck (the scoreboard?) at Wrigley Field about five minutes ago!