7/24/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

[Kurt Hulst]

Nick remember we had seen a couple days that were wastes of dynamics in the Plains it dont matter where you are it happens every where. Set ups like today just seem like a dream and most of the time thats all they turn out to be. I had a great time chatting with Bob Hartig as we drove twoards Highway 23. We then went and got some supper and turned around and came home. So weather wise i wasnt feeling to confident in this set up with all the perfect perameters around i felt there was something a midst that was going to screw this up but i went anyway. And well Looks like Canada Is getting the show tonight. It definetly wasnt a waste of time. Comradery is the second half of chasing.

The suspect was weak midlevel convergence

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
The NWS made it sound like their was going to be a beast, about. Was their ANYTHING at all? It doesn't even look like their was a thunderstorm. I sort of predicted this coming, but then you can always be surprised by explosive development.

The severe weather indices were excellent today. If something did fire, it would have most likely been a "beast". The problem was the dry air moving into the to mid levels of the atmosphere, as seen on the watervapor loop. The drying could have very well been a result of warming, rather than actual lowering of dewpoints.

This basically erroded the cumulus cloud field, and supressed thunderstorm development. I think the RUC may have underforecasted the CAP slightly, as the actual 00Z DTX sounding showed at least some CINH (though very weak). The convergence/forcing along the cold front just wasn't enough to get things going as I had wished.

 

[rdale]

"The NWS made it sound like their was going to be a beast, about. Was their ANYTHING at all? It doesn't even look like their was a thunderstorm. I sort of predicted this coming, but then you can always be surprised by explosive development."

Are you talking about Michigan? I don't think anyone called for a beast to occur in the state this afternoon, there was just a small threat of something popping which would become severe but nothing to overcome the cap. If you are talking overall - there are some pretty nasty storms in IA and southwest Ontario still going on...

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by rdale
\"The NWS made it sound like their was going to be a beast, about. Was their ANYTHING at all? It doesn't even look like their was a thunderstorm. I sort of predicted this coming, but then you can always be surprised by explosive development.\"

Are you talking about Michigan? I don't think anyone called for a beast to occur in the state this afternoon, there was just a small threat of something popping which would become severe but nothing to overcome the cap. If you are talking overall - there are some pretty nasty storms in IA and southwest Ontario still going on...

No, I was mainly talking about IA, not MI or Ontario.