7/24/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

[Kurt Hulst]

MCD recently posted for Central and SE east MI. IM headed out the door to at least lansing just to get into position if it does occur. talk of isolated strong tornadoes catches my eye. If it happens sweet if not im only 2 hours from home.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Kurt Hulst
MCD recently posted for Central and SE east MI. IM headed out the door to at least lansing just to get into position if it does occur. talk of isolated strong tornadoes catches my eye. If it happens sweet if not im only 2 hours from home.

I'm hoping this will be good. Good luck with your chase.

 

[Robert Dewey]

As Kurt mentioned, SPC MCD states:

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.

Quite amazing by MI standards :lol:

If things develop, I guess I'll have to take it easy on the core punching, if very large hail becomes a big threat.

EDIT: Just looked over the parameters, and they are all bulls-eyed on my location. I hope the CAP breaks soon so we can start seeing some action. It's always interesting when you get baseball sized hail and tornadoes in MI...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

The only problem i could see if storms do go is the movement, which would likely be ESE or east at about 40mph. That could take them out of the state into canada in only a hour or two after things get going, if things get going, and that is a HUGE If.

EDIT, i would look at the area around Mount Pleasant for things to go if they do, nice temp. contrast with the cloud shield just north of there and temps in the low 90s south of there.

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
The only problem i could see if storms do go is the movement, which would likely be ESE or east at about 40mph. That could take them out of the state into canada in only a hour or two after things get going, if things get going, and that is a HUGE If.

EDIT, i would look at the area around Mount Pleasant for things to go if they do, nice temp. contrast with the cloud shield just north of there and temps in the low 90s south of there.

Mount Pleasant??

You'd wanna look more toward southeast MI, around the Lansing area and points east/southeast of there, where we'll have the best moisture convergance.

 

[Jason Hetzel]

just talked to kurt not too long ago and yes i strongly agree with nick on points east of lansing as for the best dynamics in the country are located there lol. kurt told me he was headed for lansing himself to get into position SHOULD anything fire. im hoping things can try to get going in the next few hours as for we are losing light fast and i dont like night storms cause you cant see anything fancy on them haha. lets hope for that watch to come out and lets get some action going here

 

[nickgrillo]

I am not gonna leave until I see hints of convection occuring, because the main threat is within an hour of my home... So, don't have to go far at all.

CAP is pretty much eroded in southeast MI, now we just gotta wait.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

i should have stated I would look toward MP for storm to fire, as i won't be able to go too far south to catch anything. I'm hoping with the differential heating, 90 in MP and points south, low 80s points north something can fire. WInds are all over the place as well, with calm winds in Houghten lake, West winds in MP, SW in saginaw and S here in bad axe.

Chances are slim, but i'm hopeful, good luck to all of you if things do indeed go down south.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
I am not gonna leave until I see hints of convection occuring, because the main threat is within an hour of my home... So, don't have to go far at all.

CAP is pretty much eroded in southeast MI, now we just gotta wait.

RUC forecast sounding at 21Z still shows 5 J/KG of CINH :lol:

Shear is really up there! There is 80KNTS of shear in the 0-2KM layer, backing off to 65KNTS in the 0-3KM layer, still VERY strong. These are shear values you typically see in strong winter storms, or strongly forced severe weather environments. Effective storm relative helicities in the 0-3KM layer are approaching 450M2/S2 - all combined with a healthy MLCAPE of nearly 4000J/KG. The main concern is still temps between 850-700MB... If we can overcome that, then things will get quite wild to say the least.

Moisture convergence is very strong, but that means nothing if things are capped... This is definitely a boom or bust situation...

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Now sitting just west of Lansing at a truck stop waiting for bob hartig to show up. The CU field is moving further East and there is some sort of trough in the WV coming this way. With that cloud deck coming form the north it might help gain convergenceand be enough force to break through what ever CAP is left. Ill be watching for sure. Thankfully there was no road construction on the way out which allowed me to get here really fast. hehe.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Kurt Hulst
Now sitting just west of Lansing at a truck stop waiting for bob hartig to show up. The CU field is moving further East and there is some sort of trough in the WV coming this way. With that cloud deck coming form the north it might help gain convergenceand be enough force to break through what ever CAP is left. Ill be watching for sure. Thankfully there was no road construction on the way out which allowed me to get here really fast. hehe.

I've been watching the errosion of the Cu field, and it's quite concerning. That means mid level temperatures are warming, and that's not good as far as the CAP is concerned. I really hope that 1) things fire rapidly, within the next couple hours OR 2) as you said, hope there is enough convergence on that band dropping south (the one near Mount Pleasent).

Right now, those are the only two options, obviously...

 

[j_scheerer]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
The only problem i could see if storms do go is the movement, which would likely be ESE or east at about 40mph. That could take them out of the state into canada in only a hour or two after things get going, if things get going, and that is a HUGE If.

Hey. I'm not complaining, I'd welcome a strong tornado.... It's been 20 years since we had an F4 in Ontario and 26 years since the Woodstock twin F4's.

Anyways, I have a funny feeling things will fall apart on their way across the lake.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

As for current severe weather, possibly tornadic supercell near Fort Dodge, Iowa along the stationary boundary.

KDMX Live Level II directory for GRL2:
http://metfs1.agron.iastate.edu/data/nexrd2/raw/

 

[Robert Dewey]

I got my eyes glued on the DTX L2 screen and 1KM VIS satellite... I don't know if that convergence band dropping southward will be enough to light things up. There is at least some cloud development along this band, so I'm still not completely convinced that there will be no action.

Anyway, on the L2, I can see small echoes popping up in Huron County and Ontario. The Cu field that was over most of SE MI has now erroded, as dry/warmer air advects in (seen nicely on the WV loop).

I'm still wishing! :lol:

 

[Andrew Khan]

The NWS made it sound like their was going to be a beast, about. Was their ANYTHING at all? It doesn't even look like their was a thunderstorm. I sort of predicted this coming, but then you can always be surprised by explosive development.