7/24/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

Tomorrow holds the potential for a MI chase for myself...

For tomorrows setup... Winds across MI are pretty much unidirectional, and will be supportive of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms; capable of producing damaging wind gusts. We will have alot of factors supporting severe weather, including very strong instability (CAPES AOA 3500J/KG), strong deep layer shear, high theta-e, very strong unidirectional wind fields, so we shall see...

Tomorrows temperatures could reach record breaking status as well, GRR is saying that we will see some of the highest temps/heat indexes since 1999. With all that said, I think tomorrow could hold a pretty decent risk for storms across MI.

Rob Dewey, whatcha think?
 
Looks to me like their could very well be damaging winds, with possible minor flooding. Looks to me like the storms will flare up over the night...Looks good so far...
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
I am pretty surprised that DTX makes pretty much no mention of storms developing in the evening with the cold front, but GRR does, and hits it in their HWO.

Probably because:

1) Morning/early afternoon convection will reduce instability
2) As the day progresses, a thermo-nuclear CAP will develop
3) Very weak convergence along the front

The main threat appears to be in the 12-18Z timeframe across lower MI. The 00Z NAM is doing an amazing job with the convection that just developed over MN/WI just recently. It develops this into a very intense MCS and blasts it eastward with a sharp turn to the southeast, setting it's eyes right on the DTX CWA. Given the degree of shear, forcing, and moderate instability, things should develop quite nicely.

The real race will be tomorrow mornig - Will the SFC-based instability be able to advect in right before the line comes through? The NAM says so, with SBCAPE's climbing near 2000J/KG with almost 500M2/S2 of helicity available (thanks to backed SFC winds, veering rapidly to the northwest at 700MB with a jet max of nearly 55KNTS).

The overal setup resembles what happened yesterday (or today, depending on time) in regards to that long tracked bow echo/derecho.

Either way, after that stuff blow through, 850-700MB temps increase dramatically and CAP everything off, not to mention any subsidence as a result from the MCS.

EDIT: Was just pulling up some forecast soundings from the NAM for various sites around the MI area - At 15-18Z, LAN shows 2500J/KG of CAPE with 0-3KM shear values of nearly 70KNTS - This brings 0-3KM EHI values of 4.5. If storms get their act together tonight, they should be able to survive the trip southward, if not intensity along the way.
 
IF areas can get some sun later on, the combo of outflow boundries, the weak front and lake breeze could just break the cap and if it does break, watch out for the storms will be isolated and in areas with good shear/very unstable air.
 
I'm watching the storm on radar, their are some meso rings embedded in this storm as well. Is anyone chasing yet? The NWS in Pontiac/Detroit has issued a severe thunderstorm warning.
 
Well, I am not 100% convinced that things won't refire later this evening. The CAP still has me concerned quite a bit, but there is at least a small chance things could pop. Latest NAM and RUC both show this happening, with ample instability and shear present. If storms develop, they will obviously be severe.

EDIT: NAM soundings for 21-00Z across the area shows in excess of 4K J/KG of SBCAPE (and 3K J/KG of MLCAPE) to work with. In addition, low level shear (0-2KM and 0-3KM) is 61KNTS and 59KNTS respectively. That is more than sufficient for organized severe thunderstorms, particularly bow echoes. EHI's also get up to 5.9, but with a real lack of directional shear, I don't see a widespread threat for tornadoes. Of interest, increasing the storm relative motion by 5-10KNTS yields effective storm relative helicity of over 300M2/S2, and increases EHI to just over 7. So, the parameters certainly support severe thunderstorms... This of course is assuming that convection even redevelops - but at 00Z, the NAM doesn't even have a hint of CINH. If the NAM and RUC are correct, and the CINH completely errodes, thunderstorm develop is very possible.
 
Wow i dont think i have ever seen a Super cell composite of 32 before over SW Michigan. IF things do fire it wont be till late. Looks like an area of strong convergence will form Just south west of me if not right over GRR. According to the RUC the CAP is supposed to errode away b/w 21 and 01z. Will see if that actually occurs. Temps up top are warming very rapidly but we already have dewpoints up to 73 and rising. With a cold front, lake breeze and outflow boundaries to work with its is not out of the question that something might devlope later this evening. Of course it will be working with unidirectional wind fields. Even with that ill take some majorly close lightning strikes. Even those 50 yard away strikes make your butt pucker i love them.
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
So this is a confirmed supercell? But it's practically all out of MI.
No, nothing has formed. Everyone is just looking at the data and parameters such as the supercell composite parameters to see type/strength if and when storms fire.
 
If it fires in the next two hours, we'll be in for a real treat. If it fires after that, my money is on the usual: wind, hail, no tornadoes.
 
Originally posted by Kurt Hulst
Wow i dont think i have ever seen a Super cell composite of 32 before over SW Michigan. IF things do fire it wont be till late. Looks like an area of strong convergence will form Just south west of me if not right over GRR. According to the RUC the CAP is supposed to errode away b/w 21 and 01z. Will see if that actually occurs. Temps up top are warming very rapidly but we already have dewpoints up to 73 and rising. With a cold front, lake breeze and outflow boundaries to work with its is not out of the question that something might devlope later this evening. Of course it will be working with unidirectional wind fields. Even with that ill take some majorly close lightning strikes. Even those 50 yard away strikes make your butt pucker i love them.

If convection does develop, there would certainly be some rocking storms...

It is warm aloft, but the RUC soundings show very little in the way of a CAP by mid-afternoon. Latest analysis shows temperatures pushing 95F in southwest MI, with dewpoints approaching 80F (really adding to the instability), with instability AOA 4000J/KG. In addition, helicity is >450M2/S2 across most of southern MI... Supercell composite is a whopping 40 in Calhoun county as of this moment, one of the highest in MI I have seen in a long time.
 
Yeah Nick ain't it crazy freakn 40 SCP. Right now RUC has the CAPE at 4500 in my area with 5500-6000 just south of that. Sig tor is fairly high as well. I did notice with the 18z RUC run that Forecasted Pricp has lessend and the CAPE though weak may hold on. Mesoanylsis has shown it erroding away from two counties south of Calhoun. Now the question, is that actually happening? Theres good moisture convergance showing up just east of me with a good theta E tounge. Very good upper shear and lower shear just all veered. Getting reading of Temps reaching 90 on up now here and and dewpoints up to 76-77 in my local area. LCLs are riseing SW of me and continue to rise in a eastward propagation.

I would love it to go nutts on us but I have seen these parameters before and nothing has happened. When the RUC said the CAP was gone it was still there enough to keep initiation from occuring. but its only a matter of sitting and waiting. its not like i have driven 10 hours for it to only bust. today i can just sit here and say if it happens im ready for it. if it doesnt im that much closer to home because this is where i live hehe. it's almost to hot to venture out.
 
I know I'm probably committing a cardinal sin and a major meteorological pet peeve by even mentioning this, but the SCP is 48 and sig torn is 9 in lower Michigan. That's interesting to say the least.

The slight risk extending south into Ohio and WV probably has me a little more optimistic than I should be. None of the models are breaking precip out south of I-70 and not much in the way of Cu anywhere. RUC suggests things exploding along the lake around Cleveland later, but it looks like I'm not going to stay awake to watch this.
 
MCD recently posted for Central and SE east MI. IM headed out the door to at least lansing just to get into position if it does occur. talk of isolated strong tornadoes catches my eye. If it happens sweet if not im only 2 hours from home.
 
Originally posted by Kurt Hulst
MCD recently posted for Central and SE east MI. IM headed out the door to at least lansing just to get into position if it does occur. talk of isolated strong tornadoes catches my eye. If it happens sweet if not im only 2 hours from home.

I'm hoping this will be good. Good luck with your chase.
 
As Kurt mentioned, SPC MCD states:

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.

Quite amazing by MI standards :lol:

If things develop, I guess I'll have to take it easy on the core punching, if very large hail becomes a big threat.

EDIT: Just looked over the parameters, and they are all bulls-eyed on my location. I hope the CAP breaks soon so we can start seeing some action. It's always interesting when you get baseball sized hail and tornadoes in MI...
 
The only problem i could see if storms do go is the movement, which would likely be ESE or east at about 40mph. That could take them out of the state into canada in only a hour or two after things get going, if things get going, and that is a HUGE If.

EDIT, i would look at the area around Mount Pleasant for things to go if they do, nice temp. contrast with the cloud shield just north of there and temps in the low 90s south of there.
 
Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
The only problem i could see if storms do go is the movement, which would likely be ESE or east at about 40mph. That could take them out of the state into canada in only a hour or two after things get going, if things get going, and that is a HUGE If.

EDIT, i would look at the area around Mount Pleasant for things to go if they do, nice temp. contrast with the cloud shield just north of there and temps in the low 90s south of there.

Mount Pleasant??

You'd wanna look more toward southeast MI, around the Lansing area and points east/southeast of there, where we'll have the best moisture convergance.
 
just talked to kurt not too long ago and yes i strongly agree with nick on points east of lansing as for the best dynamics in the country are located there lol. kurt told me he was headed for lansing himself to get into position SHOULD anything fire. im hoping things can try to get going in the next few hours as for we are losing light fast and i dont like night storms cause you cant see anything fancy on them haha. lets hope for that watch to come out and lets get some action going here ;)
 
I am not gonna leave until I see hints of convection occuring, because the main threat is within an hour of my home... So, don't have to go far at all.

CAP is pretty much eroded in southeast MI, now we just gotta wait.
 
i should have stated I would look toward MP for storm to fire, as i won't be able to go too far south to catch anything. I'm hoping with the differential heating, 90 in MP and points south, low 80s points north something can fire. WInds are all over the place as well, with calm winds in Houghten lake, West winds in MP, SW in saginaw and S here in bad axe.

Chances are slim, but i'm hopeful, good luck to all of you if things do indeed go down south.
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
I am not gonna leave until I see hints of convection occuring, because the main threat is within an hour of my home... So, don't have to go far at all.

CAP is pretty much eroded in southeast MI, now we just gotta wait.

RUC forecast sounding at 21Z still shows 5 J/KG of CINH :lol:

Shear is really up there! There is 80KNTS of shear in the 0-2KM layer, backing off to 65KNTS in the 0-3KM layer, still VERY strong. These are shear values you typically see in strong winter storms, or strongly forced severe weather environments. Effective storm relative helicities in the 0-3KM layer are approaching 450M2/S2 - all combined with a healthy MLCAPE of nearly 4000J/KG. The main concern is still temps between 850-700MB... If we can overcome that, then things will get quite wild to say the least.

Moisture convergence is very strong, but that means nothing if things are capped... This is definitely a boom or bust situation...
 
Now sitting just west of Lansing at a truck stop waiting for bob hartig to show up. The CU field is moving further East and there is some sort of trough in the WV coming this way. With that cloud deck coming form the north it might help gain convergenceand be enough force to break through what ever CAP is left. Ill be watching for sure. Thankfully there was no road construction on the way out which allowed me to get here really fast. hehe.
 
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