Hey Mike. Im about a half hour south of you near South Shore, SD. Just south of the wind shift line. I think the RUC has been to quick to erase CINH and that the CAP is still quite strong. Certainly looks the case just by looking at the sky. However, as you have seen there has been strong moisture convergence near the shift (45!) right where there is 7500j/kg SBCAPE and both the 21Z RUC and 18z NAM develop convection in this area in the next hour so hopefully this will occur with some explosive development. Otherwise this will just reinforce my opinion I should not chase 16C at 700mb...
-ScottO