• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

7/21/2006 FCST: Tropical Storm Beryl

Joined
Aug 16, 2005
Messages
984
Location
Albany, New York
WONT41 KNHC 181221
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
Check out the NAM/ETA precip and MSLP forecasts.

eta1july18.jpg


eta2july18.jpg


eta3july18.jpg
 
NAM does not work for tropics... I dont think the new WRF structure will help it any.

Despite its current reletively good looking IR presentantion, I do not think this storm will amount to much. Climatology suggests deep convection should not persist, precip should be light with only moderate winds. This is well supported by the latest GFDL. Minimal TS with winds confined to the MA islands seems like a safe bet at the moment.
 
Minimal TS with winds confined to the MA islands seems like a safe bet at the moment.
[/b]

Wouldn't you know it, I am on Martha's Vineyard right now. I am not sure what the normal water temperatures are here, but at the south shore beaches it is very warm. At or above 70F, which seems high to me.
 
Here's my take on TS Beryl. As of this writing, Beryl appears to be getting much better organized based on satellite presentation. I would not be surprised if it make it to CAT 1 status in the next 12-24 hours. Also, I disagree with NHC's forecast track. All of the model information that I looked at...Stony Brook MM5, ETA, META and GFS all show Beryl moving around the Atlantic ridge and staying close to shore with a landfall somewhere from NJ or NYC/LI to Southeast MA. The models forecast a weaker system by that point but rain and gusty winds will still be likely. Of interest are the SST's. They have increased from 71-72f 5 a few days ago to 74-79f today from Virginia north to the Fire Island, NY/Montauk Point area. This would allow the storm to maintain it's strength better over the next 24-48 hours. So, we will see what happens. I don't have the luxury of all of the NHC models, but the current 5pm forecast discussion basically goes against the models and more with the forecasters educated belief that the storm will actually go further east. I would not be so bold to go against the majority of the models though.
 
I agree Howie. The CDO is looking very impressive, and it is already a 60mph TS. I don't have access to any of the models, but I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted the track a little west.

As for sst's...they are warm, but that is easily mixed out. The warm water around here lies very close to the surface. Just a few days of wind can upwell some cold water.

As for me, I am in Martha's Vineyard right now, hoping the track shifts a little west. At the very least the waves are going to get big. I'll keep everyone updated if things get more interesting. Currently, we are under a TS watch.
 
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