Well the GFDL 18Z shifted back west... the wigwag continues. I think the longer she stays weak the further west she could go. Still waiting to see post-Hispaniola conditions.
The latest IR satellite loop clearly shows Emily moving (crawling) west, although still disorganized. The BAMS, BAMM and CLP5 models (12z - 8-03-11) are now tracking Emily to the west of Hispaniola and over / west of Cuba. It will be an interesting 24-48 hours in regards to any future US impact.
On the visible you can clearly see the COC leaving the bulk of the convection behind. It'll be interesting to see whether she can wrap things back together before too long.
Looking at the latest data, including shear factors, land interactions and satellite images, I think Emily is pretty much history unless something really unexpected happens. We are just getting into the season, no worries.
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