7/21/2006 FCST: Tropical Storm Beryl

WONT41 KNHC 181221
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
Check out the NAM/ETA precip and MSLP forecasts.

eta1july18.jpg


eta2july18.jpg


eta3july18.jpg
 
NAM does not work for tropics... I dont think the new WRF structure will help it any.

Despite its current reletively good looking IR presentantion, I do not think this storm will amount to much. Climatology suggests deep convection should not persist, precip should be light with only moderate winds. This is well supported by the latest GFDL. Minimal TS with winds confined to the MA islands seems like a safe bet at the moment.
 
Minimal TS with winds confined to the MA islands seems like a safe bet at the moment.
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Wouldn't you know it, I am on Martha's Vineyard right now. I am not sure what the normal water temperatures are here, but at the south shore beaches it is very warm. At or above 70F, which seems high to me.
 
Here's my take on TS Beryl. As of this writing, Beryl appears to be getting much better organized based on satellite presentation. I would not be surprised if it make it to CAT 1 status in the next 12-24 hours. Also, I disagree with NHC's forecast track. All of the model information that I looked at...Stony Brook MM5, ETA, META and GFS all show Beryl moving around the Atlantic ridge and staying close to shore with a landfall somewhere from NJ or NYC/LI to Southeast MA. The models forecast a weaker system by that point but rain and gusty winds will still be likely. Of interest are the SST's. They have increased from 71-72f 5 a few days ago to 74-79f today from Virginia north to the Fire Island, NY/Montauk Point area. This would allow the storm to maintain it's strength better over the next 24-48 hours. So, we will see what happens. I don't have the luxury of all of the NHC models, but the current 5pm forecast discussion basically goes against the models and more with the forecasters educated belief that the storm will actually go further east. I would not be so bold to go against the majority of the models though.
 
I agree Howie. The CDO is looking very impressive, and it is already a 60mph TS. I don't have access to any of the models, but I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted the track a little west.

As for sst's...they are warm, but that is easily mixed out. The warm water around here lies very close to the surface. Just a few days of wind can upwell some cold water.

As for me, I am in Martha's Vineyard right now, hoping the track shifts a little west. At the very least the waves are going to get big. I'll keep everyone updated if things get more interesting. Currently, we are under a TS watch.
 
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