6/9/09 FCST: KS/OK/MO

[Jeff House]

Morning upper air charts are in, and confirm what I see in the sky above Dallas with a few clouds near the 850 level moving to the NE. Looks like the 850 level moisture is better than on Sunday, but the winds are still a bit veered. Looking out the window is still a good tool!

If I could chase, which I cannot, I would target Blackwell, OK to Newton, KS. Will depend on final position of OFB. Morning convection in north-central KS will serve to reinforce boundaries; as Jason writes it is a good thing. Surface winds will be backed and moist up in my target area. Will need mid and hi clouds to stay thin enough and the jet energy to nose out in time. Might be mutually exclusive.

If the following three happen, today will be the day of the season. First the hi clouds need to stay thin, and at the same time the jet max needs to nose out a bit earlier than progged (say 21-23Z). Finally the 850 winds need to be just a bit more backed ahead of the DL. Even without those three, it should be a good chase day up there. Enjoy!

 

[Zack Phillips]

Wichita Road Closure

MODS, please move if not in appropriate thread but seems like ICT will be highly targeted today.

For those of you who haven't traveled through Wichita lately, you can not access I-135 from U.S. Hwy 54 (Kellogg) both east and west bound due to major roadwork. You can still get on Hwy 54 from I-135 though. If you're coming from the west on Hwy 54, take I-235 in west ICT. If you coming from the east on Hwy 54, take K-96 north or the Kansas Turnpike south.

I'm in downtown ICT now waiting for skies to clear. Good luck to those chasing today.

 

[CZandbergen]

I can't chase today and I sure wish I could as this is pretty much in my backyard. After looking at the latest RUC run I think the best action is going to be east of ICT in the 5-7CDT time frame. LCL's look better and so does shear and low level winds. What bears watching is the OFB from the morning convection. If a cell can get going and move into the environment east of Ark City it is going to be explosive.

All that said, I am almost glad I can't chase today as I hate chasing east of Ark City. The road network is bad and you get into a lot of trees and hills. Also, the data coverage for ATT is a black hole in that area as well. Good luck to all those venturing out today.

 

[Chris Lott]

I won't be out due to work constraints, and waaaay too far for me to drive, but just taking a quick glance at things Pratt,KS looks like a nice target. Great turning of the winds with height, although I would like to see stronger surface winds. CAPE progged to be near 4500 j/jg BY 00Z. CINH looks to be minimal around the same timeframe, with EHI values around 6. This is where I would be setting up shop if I were out.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Based on surface obs the warm front is already in S Kansas and north of Wichita which means that we all may need to get further north. I am thinking the SPC was right the first time they made their outlook because based off the current obs and RUC the warm front will be sitting south/near I70 by this afternoon. I still don't have a target yet but we may head west out of Emporia instead of taking the turnpike.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Based on surface obs the warm front is already in S Kansas and north of Wichita which means that we all may need to get further north. I am thinking the SPC was right the first time they made their outlook because based off the current obs and RUC the warm front will be sitting south/near I70 by this afternoon. I still don't have a target yet but we may head west out of Emporia instead of taking the turnpike.

There's a significant cold pool surging southward behind this mornings MCS which will serve to reinforce the warm front in S. KS, no way its making it all the way to I-70 with all that cold air surging southward.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

There's a significant cold pool surging southward behind this mornings MCS which will serve to reinforce the warm front in S. KS, no way its making it all the way to I-70 with all that cold air surging southward.

Yeah, I was going to post something to that effect as well. If anything, the Warm Front may shift southward by a county or two with that strong surge coming S. It could make a run at the KS/OK border in all reality. From OUN's AFD, they seem to think it's possible as well.

Most likely, I think it'll set up just N of ICT or over ICT. Convective evolution will either make or break today. Everything else is there and ready to rock and roll. I'll be somewhere W or SW of ICT near the eventual Triple Point if that occurs.

 

[Neil Robinson]

Yeah, I was going to post something to that effect as well. If anything, the Warm Front may shift southward by a county or two with that strong surge coming S. It could make a run at the KS/OK border in all reality. From OUN's AFD, they seem to think it's possible as well.

Most likely, I think it'll set up just N of ICT or over ICT. Convective evolution will either make or break today. Everything else is there and ready to rock and roll. I'll be somewhere W or SW of ICT near the eventual Triple Point if that occurs.

Agreed Chris. I'm thinking of Medicine Lodge - Salina for slightly richer moisture and I'm not at all convinced about SPC progging the warm front that far north.
Certainly a day when being on the money will make all the difference.

 

[Cris Schroeder]

It looks like the placement of the warm front and the progress of the outflow boundary from the N. KS activity will be key. So, the plan for now is to sit tight at work (Mid-Continent airport) and keep and eye on things for a couple of hours. My current chase target is my house.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I guess it's a 15z RUC vs. 12z NAM deal today... The 15z RUC doesn't look particularly good for S KS in terms of weak 500 mb flow, and it veers the low-level flow all the way to the longitude of at least Tulsa in any area of stronger mid-level flow. By 3z (on the 15z RUC), shear is best (and actually pretty darn good) in the NE 1/4 of OK and adjacent portions of KS. However, the 12z NAM obviously has a different idea, in keeping the low-level flow southerly ahead of the dryline in SC KS and W OK, and it keeps the mid-level flow stronger in southern KS.

If the low-level flow doesn't veer out ahead of the dryline, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 5% or (IMO) the 10% tor prob dragged to at least I40 (if not down to the Red River)... I certainly hope we can stay W of Hwy 56 if we are north of ICT, as roads E of US 56 N of ICT aren't terribly numerous from my experience.

I will say that all should prepare for epic chaser convergence today. Our best V2 intercepts this year have been removed from the most 'popular' areas of the Plains, so this will be the first time we'll have a full mix of chasers. So far, no problems, and hopefully we can get more than 1 or 2 supercells!

 

[Chris Allington]

We are currently punching through the squall line near Emporia on I-35 with some pretty intense wind. Heading for a target somewhere just SW of Wichita. Hopefully the winds begin to back down in that area ahead of the surface low. We will probably hang out in ICT and grab a bite before continuing west a bit.

 

[Steve Worthington]

With the cloud coverage it`s going to be hard to get anything good roiling.
It`s still early so anything could happen later in the afternoon.

We are gonna hang out in Hutchinson KS for another hour or two before making a target.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Chase plans for today seem quite simple.

1) Set up on triple point in S KS
2) Wait
3) ???
4) Profit

Waiting for my chase partner to get off work but it looks by the time we get down there, we will be in the Wichita area ahead of the dryline punch.

 

[jamesmseitz]

Looking at the clouds cover.... seems to be a clearing coming up from OK. The small town of Coldwater KS seems to be a great waiting place. The outflow from this mornings storm will enhance today quite nicely. Good hunting everyone !!!!!

 

[Chris Allington]

SPC MD now out for the area. We are almost to Wichita and will likely await initiation on the west side of the city.