6/9/09 FCST: KS/OK/MO

[Mike Johnston]

Outflow boundary is currently analyzed, oriented E/W across northern Sedgwick and slowly pushing towards the south. With CAPE building and CIN eroding to the immediate south, looks like a position anywhere in the Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-Sumner Cos. area - looking for initiation over the next 1-2hours - is a reasonable place to be.

EDIT: Ouch, just after I write this I notice the surface winds are starting to veer badly along and west of I-35 south of ICT. Don't know if that surface low over SW KS will deepen enough to sufficiently influence the surface winds in the meantime.

 

[Ryan Shepard]

Skinner and I (Cut to the Chase team) will be hanging out in Dodge City for a while, may go to coldwater, Just waiting for initiation between 3 and 4pm. Dew points are nice and were seeing a clearing visibly and on satellite. Its definitely getting enough day time heating now. Wind shear should get better throughout the afternoon though so its just a matter of being patient, check surface in a few hours and you may like what you see.

www.cuttothestormchase.blogspot.com

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Man, this is getting muddy quickly. The 15z and 18z RUC runs continue to show weak 500 mb flow later this afternoon and early evening in Kansas, as the area lies between two 500 mb speed maxima (one of the E and one to the SW). So far, it has correctly forecast the veering sfc winds up here, and continues to show that the best low-level shear will remain (1) near the only backed winds S of the OFB in far SE KS and NE OK and (2) immediately on the cool side of the boundary in southern KS (just need it to lie under the better 500 mb flow!). It also continues to want to push the OFB closer to the OK/KS border (and into north-central OK). If this occurs, I imagine moving southward a bit may be worthwhile. I absolutely hate the WSW 850mb flow that the 18z RUC has for much of the area by 0z tonight... Note that slug of dry, hot 850mb air moving ahead of the DL a bit... I STRONGLY prefer the 12z NAM in terms of southerly, strong 850mb flow and considerably better 500 mb flow in Kansas. I think we may be having some timing issues of our vort maxes right now....

The VNX VWP is nasty right now, with 20 kt SW flow right off the surface and 30-35 kt near what amounts to about 6 km AGL (Vici profiler has 40 kt at 500 mb). This would not allow for supercell development in areas with veered winds right now, though perhaps strong upper-tropospheric flow can compensate some. I think the best bet may be along the OK/KS border in the 1-4Z period this evening, when the 18z RUC is forecasting ~15 kt easterlies. Otherwise, the longer this holds off, the closer we'll get to the jet max approaching from the WSW. WE do see at least one day a year in the Plains that tends to feature a supercell anchored on a boundary, with good moisture to the immediate cool side, that produces nicely. I'm also keeping one eye on SE KS / NE OK later this afternoon/evening. Still holding out hope for something along the boundary, but I'm not as optimistic as I was earlier today.

The cap is almost gone now in ICT per a recent sounding, and 500mb winds are still 40-45 kt up here. So, perhaps the RUC will be wrong for today. I usually pay considerably more attn to the NAM than the RUC, since I remember several days for which the RUC over-veered the sfc winds. Of course, it's had an overforecast of Td problem now for the past few months, which also leads to an overforecast of CAPE (particularly at 9-12 hr forecast).

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

For what it is worth, the 18z NAM keeps the same non-veered sfc flow through 0z. Crossing fingers anyway. Looks like perhaps the ofb is now stalling ict/west. Also noticing a tower going up just east of ICT. If the 18z NAM is to be believed, it has a rather pin pointed target just se of ICT by 0z. Like a big becon saying, hey you 2,000 chasers, head here.

Edit: Ok maybe it's not stalling still.