6/8/08 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Rocky Rascovich]

I am curious why nobody as started a thread yet on Sunday. We may have some suprises for this day but I think the highest chances for that "suprise" will be in NW Okla. Some negatives I see is that as the front sags into the state, lots of moisture pooling may erode the cap as early 20Z if you believe the latest NAM run. Storms may go linear pretty quick and will likely become OFD within a couple of hours after CI. Still, there will be a fair amount of shear for some discrete cells initially. Best chances to me would be from GAG to P28 and eventually on east toward ICT and south toward END and southwest toward Arnett/Shattuck.

Storms will be predominantly HP with imbedded meso's. Training of cells will also be likely so flash flood potential will be elevated. This area needs the rain so it will be welcome except wheat harvest has just started. Overall, a couple of TORS are not out of the question but one will be lucky to see one. I will likely sit this one out unless it comes pretty close to Piedmont before dusk.. driving 520+ miles a day for a job sort of takes the zest out of seeing ANY highway for ANY reason on the weekend.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is amazing....I was just beginning to start a thread when I saw yours. I agree with your analysis except that I believe the best chance for a tornado is in the P28-ICT area due to the somewhat better flow at 500mb and above.

Agree with your concern about flooding. New NAM (00Z Sunday) has 6" of rain in 60 hours in NW Oklahoma and 5" in southern Kansas. This will be a real problem for the wheat. Like you, I believe there is a chance of tornadoes in the first three hours after initiation but the storms will line out after that.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Just finished up a week with Tempest Tours as a guide, and I may head to the N. TX Panhandle tomorrow. Can't argue with S. KS, but to me the best potential for a photogenic storm/tornado is in the Panhandle. NAM sharpens the dryline near Dalhart late in the afternoon, and CI should take place further south a little later than the KS target. Also like the easterly sfc flow and strengthening/backed H85 flow around 00z. I'd actually prefer a target closer to ICT as I'm driving back to Wisconsin after tomorrow (where all the tornadoes happen while I'm in OK), but I think the best photogenic storms will be in the TX Panhandle.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today: Initiation point in NW/Central Texas Panhandle. Agree with Scott... best photo potential might be in the NW Texas Panhandle. It's about time! It's rare a year goes by w/o at least one great photo-op in this region -- especially between May 28-June 12. Excellent road network. TCU profiler looks good (enough) for tornado threat and should improve by late afternoon. RUC shows area in fav. right quad of jet by early afternoon. Cap is breakable... almost glad SPC lowered T/percent so maybe things will be more isolated -- although 16:30 may change again. Maybe another classic West Texas, NW Oklahoma day!

W.

(At the Chase Ghetto in AMA)

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: Shamrock, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: 9:30 AM - A marginal chase day today but it is in familiar territory and I have only one week left in my chase vacation. PROS - A trough will affect the target area today increasing the winds aloft. There is also a cold front sagging southward through KS and the panhandles that will aid lifting. CONS- Surface winds ahead of the front are progged to veer. Line lifting along the front will yield linear storms. If not for the potential of panhandle magic, I'd stay home and save fuel money. Hoping for what happened in northern KS last night to happen again in the TX panhandle tonight. TM

 

[Angie Norris]

I agree with the I-40 area in the eastern TX panhandle. RUC is indicating enhanced vertical velocity at 21Z and is breaking out precip by then. However, it also looks like things may line out early (again). Looking at the progged temps and dewpoints, bases are going to be insanely high, so I'd be thinking hailers, not so much tornadoes.
If I had today off, I'd head toward the general direction of Shamrock and just enjoy the Caprock experience. To all heading out today, happy hunting and be careful!

 

[Shane Adams]

After looking over the latest RUC I agree with Tim. Front seems to be pushing a bit further south than expected, judging by SPC's current TOR prob max placement. South winds will be piling moisture against the slowly sagging CF, creating a nice area for any storm to form and ride. I'm no forecaster, and certainly no "archive" expert, but today kinda reminds me of 5-12-05. My only concern is the lack of h7 winds by 0Z in the target area, but with great LL veering in the lowest KM, the instability should overcome that. Quite likely we'll get a string of HP type storms not long after initiation, but 30-35mph forward speeds are much easier to work around than the rockets we had in KS a few days ago.

You might pay the price with a busted windshield, but today seems to have decent tornado potential.