Mark Farnik
EF5
The early part of this week should see a series of typical early summer northwest flow severe events over the western High Plains as upper disturbances ride down the lee side of the ridge of high pressure currently parked over the Great Basin. While there will likely be severe wx over the area over a course of several days, Tuesday looks to have the greatest potential for significant severe wx, including possible isolated tornadic supercells.
An instability axis will be oriented northwestward from the Red River Valley to eastern Wyoming. There will be a fairly stout capping inversion in place, however it should erode from northwest to southeast along the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon hours, with initiation taking place on the higher terrain of eastern CO/WY and moving southeastward into portions of western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles with time.
Very strong directional shear will be present across the entire target area, but the southern portion of the target area will have anemic mid-level flow, resulting in initial supercells quickly transitioning into linear segments with damaging wind/large hail the primary threats. Further north across northeastern CO and western NE, the mid level flow will be enhanced thanks in part to a nice little 55 knot mid level jet streak moving down the ridge in the early evening hours. This combined with strengthening low level flow and mid 50's dewpoints should provide an environment favorable for persistent supercells, some of which could be tornadic given the favorable combination of strong directional shear, copious moisture return values (for the High Plains) and moderate to strong instability.
The latest model trends are keeping convection fairly isolated, which could mean we actually might see something that we have yet to see this season - DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS! I hope I haven't jinxed it by saying it... lol. While this will probably be a very localized event, I wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-outbreak across the NE Panhandle and northeast CO with a half dozen or so tornado reports.
Something similar to the rogue tornadic supercell of June 27, 2006, which produced a total of 8 tornadoes as it tracked from southeast of Scottsbluff, NE to northeast of Sterling, CO and occurred under very similar conditions (NW flow aloft, mid 50's dewpoints and strong directional shear enhanced by a mid level jet streak) wouldn't be out of the question on Tuesday evening.
Will be keeping a close eye on the situation as it evolves into what could be a potentially decent backyard chase!
An instability axis will be oriented northwestward from the Red River Valley to eastern Wyoming. There will be a fairly stout capping inversion in place, however it should erode from northwest to southeast along the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon hours, with initiation taking place on the higher terrain of eastern CO/WY and moving southeastward into portions of western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles with time.
Very strong directional shear will be present across the entire target area, but the southern portion of the target area will have anemic mid-level flow, resulting in initial supercells quickly transitioning into linear segments with damaging wind/large hail the primary threats. Further north across northeastern CO and western NE, the mid level flow will be enhanced thanks in part to a nice little 55 knot mid level jet streak moving down the ridge in the early evening hours. This combined with strengthening low level flow and mid 50's dewpoints should provide an environment favorable for persistent supercells, some of which could be tornadic given the favorable combination of strong directional shear, copious moisture return values (for the High Plains) and moderate to strong instability.
The latest model trends are keeping convection fairly isolated, which could mean we actually might see something that we have yet to see this season - DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS! I hope I haven't jinxed it by saying it... lol. While this will probably be a very localized event, I wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-outbreak across the NE Panhandle and northeast CO with a half dozen or so tornado reports.
Something similar to the rogue tornadic supercell of June 27, 2006, which produced a total of 8 tornadoes as it tracked from southeast of Scottsbluff, NE to northeast of Sterling, CO and occurred under very similar conditions (NW flow aloft, mid 50's dewpoints and strong directional shear enhanced by a mid level jet streak) wouldn't be out of the question on Tuesday evening.
Will be keeping a close eye on the situation as it evolves into what could be a potentially decent backyard chase!
Last edited by a moderator:
