5/6/08 FCST: SD/NE/IA/KS/OK/TX/NM

[Bill Tabor]

Generally my area has been Sam's, Tim's, and Shane's general area; however with morning model run and overnight convection I can't pull the trigger. It seems a bit mixed. Wondering if a bit further south may be better MAF to SJT / ABI. Also the 700mb temps are fairly stout without a big mid level wave to kick it off. 4km WRF convection forecast is somewhat mixed IMO. Where ever a storm forms in this general area from just north of CDS, west into the Panhandle and down south to I20 there is a shot for a tornado. Better 500mb winds are to be had further west closer to the TX/NM border but by 0z enough east of the ABI area. Mid level wave will begin influencing the MAF area headed ne by 0z or just before. Right now I do see a boundary ese/wnw near the ABI area - that said, SPC Mesoanalysis showing little cape yet to that area most of it being in the MAF / Pecos region. It will propagate ne with time - but will it be enough and will good convection truly fire? I may not leave unless something changes.

I will add that no doubt it's better to be out there in the target area rather than waiting for some more verification; however I will be doing the drive alone again in the big gas guzzling beast..for that reason I need to pick and choose a bit more. Still need to process my video and pics from previous chases which may also pull me home.

Best of luck to you guys out there if you decide to go!

UPDATE: Hmm...SPC Mesoanalysis parameters and CAPE now strengthening in the aforementioned area near CDS/ABI, etc. Still capped, but showing potential with boundary nearby..... This could be more motivation.

 

[JR Hehnly]

I went with the far southwest option, sitting at a rest stop on the east side of Hobbs, NM. Nice Cu field in place, SE winds at 15mph. I'm looking for the dryline tightening to my west to move this direction, and it looks like I'm on the NE side of a bulge in the El Paso area. Hopefully this will lead to increased backing of the winds here. With temperatures nearing 80 and dewpoints over 60, I'm expecting some dryline initiation sometime this afternoon.

 

[David Wolfson]

Currently sitting at the Fina station in Spur, TX, In no big hurry to move. There seem from clear air radar to be some old boundaries around here, plus the moisture and helicity seem to be coming together. The southwest option seems popular but the wv loop shows raging dry air set to mix down as the afternoon's dry punch (?). As with yesterday am anticipating early storm motion from about 250 at 10-15, veering to around 280 at 20-25 as they mature. Yay! Satellite radio in the car! dumdedumdedum....

[20:30Z -- ML CAPE up to 2k with CINH <75. TW just issued to west. Patience, grasshopper.]

[22:05Z -- TCU going up west of Spur. Relocating to Kalgary. SO feel free to start the NOW thread. No time here.]

 

[Eric Flescher]

Surprised to see Medium threat posted on SPC

Tried to use my internet connection to my favorite site to have a better look see of targets is down.
However I just saw this from SPC and I was mildly surprised. I have not see many chasers talking about Nebraska targets or the overlap into Kansas and south. Still looking for data.
Seems like most of the severe weather will occur later on tonight and morning.

Anyone have more info especially for Kansas sector? Good luck