5/4/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Alex Lamers]

What are everyone's thoughts on W/C OK? I was pretty skeptical myself, but right now I'm looking at SPC Mesoanalysis and 5000-5500 j/kg uncapped SBCAPE is staring me back in the face. Granted MLCAPE is about 2500-3500 with about -50 to -75 j/kg of CINH right now but the trend has been for the inhibition to erode quickly this morning. A bit of a small cu field trying to get its act together in SW OK too.

My biggest issue was forcing. I didn't see the convergence. But given trends in instability and inhibition, I'm not so sure we won't be able to keep development to the north of OK today. If anything pops its going to be a monster.

AJL

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Virtual chasing of course... but man alive, I think Northeast CO could be fantastic towards 00z. Post frontal surface winds will be veering all day with easterly flow by 00z along I-70 west of Burlington to Limon. Vis sat shows where the edge of the moisture is...right around Burlington... so lower 50s dewpoints should advect west along I-70 corridor in far eastern CO. The question will be heating. West of the stratus deck, insolation is maximized from Limon to Akron. I modified a RUC forecast sounding for Seibert, CO at 00z and I got 1300 J/kg with a 66/50F parcel! This area is going to be in the best deep tropospheric lift and baroclinicity. I am almost convinced there will be a long lived supercell somewhere in Colorado...with that highest probability being along I-70 corridor north to the US-34 corridor. If I could chase today... I'd be chasing secondary target... b/c I'm weird that way... and I just absolutely love Colorado supercells. I hope someone gives this a shot... it looks really good to me... just got to give it time... the 50s dews are not that far away, and upslope will be great later on with the winds veering around from north to east. The primary target... I'm still at odds where the best place to play would be... it looks like thermal ridge is beginning to nose in south of DDC... I'd be keeping an eye out on the area along the KS-OK border south of DDC as well.

With gas prices where they are, it's a no brainer for me. The NCAR-WRF fires a couple supercells in southeast CO and they head north with one dominant cell to pass right over Goodland. I just hope the moisture will move west enough, along with some more heating. My furnace has been kicking on this morning here in CO Spgs!

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I think that it will be a tough call on how far south the caps breaks but, its looks like a big day, cause the clouds are gone, I think diabatic heating will win north of I-40.

I might have to go alone becuase I was left at OUN with no one to chase with. If you are looking for a partner please PM me with in the next hour.

Eddie

 

[matt patterson]

Im looking really hard at the Medicine Lodge area to Alva where the Theta E Noses in to the better upper dynamics. It is a bit worrysome to get to far to the North with all the instability to the south... Like Alex said, if something does end up going in Ok, especially in SW OK it could rumble for hours on end... I plan on heading that to SC kansas in the next hour.... Good Luck out there....

 

[afischer]

18Z DDC sounding shows a stout cap (MLCIN of 186 and LFC ~3500m agl), with 700mb thermal ridge holding solid at 9 degrees C and BL moisture still pretty shallow. I still think the cap may break locally east of DDC by ~00Z as deeper moisture gradually streams northward in advance of the bulging dryline.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I wouldn't worry about the cap as much, because there is a huge clearing over much of W KS and the air is starting to heat up nicely. I think the cap may be a small problem, but i still think convection will be able to fire especially with the extreme instability in place as well. I'm probably going to head to Pratt just in case I will have to most west, south, or north.

Good luck to everyone today!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Just a note about road construction that may come into play later today and proabably tommorow for that matter, HWY 156 in KS, SW of Ellsworth is majorly detoured and one has to take HWY 14.

17Z RUC now blowing precip pretty similar to this mornings 12Z and last nights 4km.

 

[Van DeWald]

Sitting tight in great bend. Stratus is definitely lifting out into a CU field. Hmm, what to do. Go west toward Ness City, or head south toward Pratt. Decisions, decisions. Am thinking the southern target might be the better choice at this point, given 18Z mesoanalysis parameters. The nice thing about hanging with Great Bend, it's got great wifi coverage, and one can head either direction pretty easily. Anyone else have any thoughts?

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Am really beginning to think the RUC may be onto something in southwest OK, where it is insistent on initiating storms. There's currently a Cu field between Altus/Lawton/Frederick, the SPC mesoanalysis shows a bullseye of moisture convergence in the region, and there appears to be surface confluence on Oklahoma Mesonet obs. My main concern there is timing, as storms going up too early may not have the shear yet, which is supposed to come in more around/after 00Z.

 

[Ilya Neyman]

I just got off work, with most of the crews headed out KS bound now...it's a tough call target-wise. Right now regional visible loops are showing an enhancing crisp cu field developing just south of I-40 NNW of Lawton area. In addition there seems to be some sort of outflow type boundary bulging north into south-central OK to the east of this cu enhancement...note: this is nearly the exact area that the 4km wrf fired a monster supercell by this evening, along some sort of pre-dryline convergence boundary. Also both the gfs and nam have been consistent over the last couple days in eliminating the CINH across west-central OK roughly north to south through the Weatherford area by 00z, NAM runs last night also showed dramatic 850 moistening and cooling in a north-south corridor over this region by 00z as winds backed and increased to more SSW-S direction. It's a tough call between west-central OK and NW OK Woodward vicinity. RUC track record has been quite pitiful so far this season with it's insistence on OK initiation well ahead of dryline but failing most every time (or ending up 80-100 miles further west). However, the BIGGEST fly in the ointment is almost all of those days featured stubborn cloud cover (cirrus decks) that inhibited heating. Today is an ENTIRELY different story, as such I am becoming more concerned with the west-central OK target. Would like to see an MD issued highlighting what SPC guys are thinking but cap should be weaker this area than further west too.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm on the virtual road now out of DDC in Kinsley now to check data (especially the vis) again and likely continue progressing east on US50 to Hutchinson with developments. SW Kansas just looks too mixed out, and the forecast MAPS soundings don't look great, either. On the other hand, there's a lot to like in the ICT and HUT soundings around 00Z! Not rushing east, though, because the juice and low level flow is being pulled vigorously back westward as the surface pressure to the west drops from the overtopping flow speed increase.

20:30Z: Fine-tuning to a boundary(?). Am departing Kinsley virtually for intersection with US281 south of Great Bend, to arrive about 21Z.

21:40Z: Departed for Abbyville, southwest of Hutchinson, to arrive about 22:30Z. Some elevation in the Cu field, but it sure is pretty quiet still....

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Looks like I might be heading out to play this area of convergence in SW Oklahoma near Lawton. The winds are out of the SE here but they abruptly change out of the S as you leave Stephens County and I'm lead to believe we might have some sort of a remnant boundary or something from yesterdays little storms that were along I-44 all day. Either way, with cape this high if we can get a storm to go it's going to explode and it'll develop quickly. I'm not sure what to expect but its a decent play and might be a sleeper event down here. Either way, it sure beats the huge chaser convergence probably going on in DDC right now

 

[JF Massicotte]

The dryline has moved over DDC, bulge is norther than expected... will move back to GBD...

 

[Billy Griffin]

I believe I'll be heading towards the Lawton/Weatherford, OK areas. 5000+ cape is too good to pass up! In addition, mesonet data almost suggests some wind shift thing going on down there. Have fun everyone! Be safe!

 

[Brett Adair]

I think I would be heading into the area encircled from Hutchinson, KS - Alva, OK - Guthrie, OK - Emporia, KS. Dryline bulge is just to the west where TD's are falling into the 30's, however the juice is present in the circle with TD's in the upper 60's/lower 70's. Winds seem to be backing a tad in this region and could set the stage for supercell thunderstorms in the next few hours. We could get a PDS watch box in this area I do believe.