5/4/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

3-county target area

3-county target area in SW KS: Ford, Edwards, Kiowa
Including the cities of: Dodge City, Kinsley, Greensburg

If the 6z NAM and previously discussed high res WRF reflectivity progs are onto anything...I think the primary combo of theta-e convg. and instability will set up very near DDC with initiation not likely until 0-1z. This area looks to be right in the "wheelhouse" of the backed winds along the E-W boundary and just to the NE of the dryline bulge extending east through the OK Panhandle. In this respect I do agree with the subtle comparison to 5-12-04...with initiation a little farther west in this case. I still have a few reservations about things going a little too late for my liking, but IF I were chasing today I would definitely be heading to the above area.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Heading out at this time. Should be in Medicine Lodge around 11:30 and will likely go further north and west of there. Not much more to throw into the mix that others haven't already said. I too like the bulge forecasted in the Dodge City/Pratt/Great Bend general area. With forecasted CAPE of around 3,000 J/kg, mid 60 dewpoints, helicity on the order of around 300 and excellent wind field both in regards to speed and directional shear. Then there is old Mr. CAP that may throw his hat into the mix. Initiation may not be until later, but I will still head out to get in position for Saturday as it appears to be in the same general location. I am targeting Dodge City and points possibly north at this time, which will change for sure. As others have said I also like the nw Kansas Goodland area as well, but will stick to the closer target and hope the CAP isn't as strong as forecasted. Will be interesting to see this mornings soundings in regards to the CAP. They may already be out, but I am getting ready to hit the road and will check in a couple hours. If anybody is up to tag along I am riding solo today, but am meeting some people along the way to caravan. Send me a pm and I will try to check often today.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

With everyones opinions about today... I won't add much to the brew except I think there will be a bust potential today as far as seeing anything before 02Z/05.. I am convinced there will be storms going afterwards and especially if convections breaks the cap from p28 to DDC on up to HYS...its "Katie bar the door" As has been stated, everything is in place, I'm just not sure about cap and convective temps that will be reached during daylight hours. Further down in Okla and the eastern TX. PH... conditions are even more marginal, but if convection fires, it will be explosive.

I will be heading out with Bobby Prentice and either Michael Ratliff or RJ Evans.. we'll be leaving my farm by 16Z and probably initially targeting DDC, but my gut instinct is to head further north toward Ness City/I-70 corridor and adjust from there.

Chase responsibly! I'll have my cell phone on me: 405-226-2996

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: DODGE CITY, KS TIME OF DEPARTURE FROM WICHITA: 9:30 AM Well, it sure looks good on paper today, doesn't it. I really can't find much wrong about this classic tornado set up. Nice dry punch in SW KS with backed winds in NW KS. Plenty of surface moisture over central KS. Narrow jet max aloft over the area streaming NE. I'll head to DDC then think about heading farther north as the day progresses. West OK is also a play today, but I am concerned about the cap strength there. Still, if you want to avoid the hordes, that me be the play. Good luck everyone. TM

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well I for one will be avoiding the chaser convergence up in Kansas and will be crossing my fingers that something goes up in W or SW OK per the RUC. I think if we can just get the slightest bit of cool air aloft, western OK along the dryline could be prime for supercells. A couple of reasons for this:

1. 4000-5000 j/kg SBCAPE
2. Nicely backed surface winds near what appears to be a secondary meso-low with an associated dryline bulge in western and southwestern OK.
3. Insane moisture with upwards of 70-75* dewpoints.

Good luck to all those venturing up to DDC.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Let's go with all the family:


Target: SW Kansas via Great Bend

Disc:

With the latest RUC showing cap could break before 5 PM near dodge city, we'll wait at Great Bend until (we hope so) a new sounding is released for Dodge City.

However, we expect initiation around 6 PM (maybe I'm dreaming...) I guess there's nothing new to this.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

I'm not too excited about most parts of the 15% hatched moderate, which seems too far northwest, wrapping around the low. The most interesting area to me is in the warm sector, from the triple point just NE of Dodge City down towards Altus/Wichita Falls. Whether or not initiation can occur there is anyone's guess, but the forecast shear at 00Z in western KS does not impress me, so I'd stay away from there unless the situation improves. It seems the best chance for good stuff in the warm sector will likely happen around/after 00Z, as the sun is setting and the shear improving. If I could leave work early I'd target Woodward, as it's easy to get to stuff firing on the triple point from there, as well as anything that might fire further south, down to Wichita Falls.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Short-fuse Composite

For those of you chasing Southwest Kansas today, as always hourly objective/subjective analysis will be very important.. don't just rely on the RUC/NAM... at any rate, in addition to the SPC mesoanalysis page, we run the "short-fuse composite" here at Dodge City which updates every hour at about :35 of the hour. Here is the link:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=shortfuse

Good luck today, and stay safe, mainly on the roads interacting with all the other chasers, could be a mess out there with everyone choosing the same general area.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Does anyone have a link to the 4 KM WRF/meso NAM I keep on seeing people refer to?

Thanks.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

4km WRF
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

 

[Doug Mitchell]

The RUC is progging some monster sauce today. If this pans out, I think we're going to have one helluva display of cauliflower.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/RUC/CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_CAPE_09HR.gif

 

[Brian Stertz]

DDC-P28 zone...

The NSSL-WRF from last night has what looks to be a lone supercell in the Medicine Lodge KS area by early evening. This is coincidentally where the very nice theta ridge poke is showing on the SPC mesoscale page at this time. Could it be the Protection area again??!! It will be interesting how things evolve as the surface low deepens and what area the cap can break.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

The secondary target: Eastern CO

Virtual chasing of course... but man alive, I think Northeast CO could be fantastic towards 00z. Post frontal surface winds will be veering all day with easterly flow by 00z along I-70 west of Burlington to Limon. Vis sat shows where the edge of the moisture is...right around Burlington... so lower 50s dewpoints should advect west along I-70 corridor in far eastern CO. The question will be heating. West of the stratus deck, insolation is maximized from Limon to Akron. I modified a RUC forecast sounding for Seibert, CO at 00z and I got 1300 J/kg with a 66/50F parcel! This area is going to be in the best deep tropospheric lift and baroclinicity. I am almost convinced there will be a long lived supercell somewhere in Colorado...with that highest probability being along I-70 corridor north to the US-34 corridor. If I could chase today... I'd be chasing secondary target... b/c I'm weird that way... and I just absolutely love Colorado supercells. I hope someone gives this a shot... it looks really good to me... just got to give it time... the 50s dews are not that far away, and upslope will be great later on with the winds veering around from north to east. The primary target... I'm still at odds where the best place to play would be... it looks like thermal ridge is beginning to nose in south of DDC... I'd be keeping an eye out on the area along the KS-OK border south of DDC as well.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am going to cheat back to the East a little bit on my target given the current location of the surface low and dryline and head for Pratt. I like to stay out ahead of everything until the last minute and then move in. Eerything seems to be coming together very nicely for tornadoes just East and northeast of the surface low/dryline bulge. CAPE tounge is currently wrapping in around the surface low and it looks like we should have around 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE by initiation time just East of the low. Better deep layer shear is working in from the West with the stronger midlevel winds and low level shear will increase as lowlevel flow begins to back this afternoon. You can see all the ingredients coming together for this afternoon. I will be leaving for Pratt within an hour.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

The NSSL-WRF from last night has what looks to be a lone supercell in the Medicine Lodge KS area by early evening. This is coincidentally where the very nice theta ridge poke is showing on the SPC mesoscale page at this time. Could it be the Protection area again??!! It will be interesting how things evolve as the surface low deepens and what area the cap can break.

You might also want to take a look at that WRF to see the HP beast it breaks out in Oklahoma at 0z.