Dan Cook
EF5
I just hope things will be decent from the 18th onward.
rdale
EF5
Given how much the 5/3-5/9 forecast has changed - I'm not quite sure it's good to be looking at the second half of the month at this point!
Jason Bolt
Beat me to it. Their coverage in all aspects is excellent, and I enjoy being in their CWA. In my fulltime job as a fire chief/emergency manager they are great to work with. That being said, a weekend dryline north/south thru DDC would be okay with me!
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Joel Wright
EF5
Tonight's GFS run sure has the period from May 5 through May 12th as very active. Most of the ensembles show the same as well. ECMWF hints at this too.
It's looking like the mean trof will hold out west and eject some strong shortwaves around the base through this time period if the above were to hold true. I know this is a long way out still, but models have been largely consistent the past several days.
I hope I don't jinx this, but any of you guys planning a chase vacation during this week should feel pretty good about prospects at this point. I know I do
It's looking like the mean trof will hold out west and eject some strong shortwaves around the base through this time period if the above were to hold true. I know this is a long way out still, but models have been largely consistent the past several days.
I hope I don't jinx this, but any of you guys planning a chase vacation during this week should feel pretty good about prospects at this point. I know I do
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Bill Hark
EF5
The 00Z run of the GFS is still looking very good for Sunday and Monday (5/6-5/7). Great upper level flow associated with the trough, SE surface winds if you trust surface progs and decent moisture. Although Sunday will likely be the best day, I wouldn't rule out some nice storms late Saturday in eastern CO depending on the location of the dryline/possible low and approaching upper level energy. The dryline may be south and east of the best upper support on Sat. I think the ECMWF is showing more agreement at least for that weekend.
As a chaser, I must "feed from the trough" The hard part is scheduling mealtime
Bill
As a chaser, I must "feed from the trough" The hard part is scheduling mealtime
Bill
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Ilya Neyman
EF1
The latest models are still holding fairly consistent with the overall progged development/placement of the late week trough, with wind shear and synoptic conditions beginning to become supportive of the development of severe weather in the plains possibly as early as Thursday evening. The consistency of the GFS has been seen in stalling the large trough over the Western U.S. for several days, with a SWerly jet very slow to move east. As consistent as this model has been it's still quite early to get into specifics of any kind but just for fun and based on the latest 00z run here's a rough severe wx timeline:
Thursday: NE, SD, ND
Friday: W KS, E CO, SW NE
Saturday: High Plains Mayhem: W NE, E CO, W KS possibly extending as far south as the TX and OK panhandles, where weaker upper flow, a stronger cap, but potentially higher surface moisture may lead to an active southern zone.
Sunday: TX panhandle, W/CNTRL KS, S NE
Monday: TX-MN
This is, of course, highly subject to change but this pattern is indicative of a prolonged severe wx/chase episode for the High Plains.
Thursday: NE, SD, ND
Friday: W KS, E CO, SW NE
Saturday: High Plains Mayhem: W NE, E CO, W KS possibly extending as far south as the TX and OK panhandles, where weaker upper flow, a stronger cap, but potentially higher surface moisture may lead to an active southern zone.
Sunday: TX panhandle, W/CNTRL KS, S NE
Monday: TX-MN
This is, of course, highly subject to change but this pattern is indicative of a prolonged severe wx/chase episode for the High Plains.
Van DeWald
EF2
We're starting to see good model agreement between the GFS/EC now for late this week/upcoming weekend. I'd shoot for southwest NE on Friday. Nice backed winds at the SFC, 30kts of 0-1km shear, SIG Tor parameter about 7. For Saturday, I would play western KS southward through TX panhandle. 25-35kts of 0-1km shear, Sig Tor Parameter around 5. Gulf looks open for business once again. Sunday, somehwere from NE to TX. Monday? Too far out to suggest a target. Oops, forgot to mention, SPC has now outlooked the plains on their new Day4-8 progs issued 4/30.
Marko Korosec
EF4
Wow the latest GFS 00z run looks impressive for few days after Saturday, we arrive in OKC on Saturday 5/5 evening, I hope we will be able to land at least
This day is finished since we arrive at 8pm, but our eyes are focused on Sunday 5/6 and Monday 5/7, there is some great potential! Impressive jet and nice surface backing winds, looking good for TX/OK Panhandle and w KS for now.
This day is finished since we arrive at 8pm, but our eyes are focused on Sunday 5/6 and Monday 5/7, there is some great potential! Impressive jet and nice surface backing winds, looking good for TX/OK Panhandle and w KS for now.Dan Robinson
It is going to be hard to pass up SW KS and the OK/TX panhandles on Saturday and Sunday. I can already tell I am going to be working overtime this summer to pay for this chase season.
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Bart_Comstock
EF5
Now is the point in time when I start to consider whether or not I should ask the other auditor if we can swap days over the next few weeks. Good thing about this weekend is it comes right after my two paydays and I have missed out on all the great days in the panhandles over the last two seasons. Be sure to bring your first born and a saw to take your limbs off along with you so you can cover the petrol bill. 
If anyone one needs or wants a hotel in that area, let me know and I can try to get you my "friends and family" discount at one of the Marriotts in that area.
If anyone one needs or wants a hotel in that area, let me know and I can try to get you my "friends and family" discount at one of the Marriotts in that area.
SteveCarter
EF2
After looking at some "assorted" models from just about everywhere, it does SEEM like Sat/Sun could be very interesting, but like a few have said...still early. I have a wedding to go to Saturday, and for the life of me, I can not understand how someone could get married in MAY...in the midst of storm chasing!! I hope they elope. scKansas/OK/TXpan.....Sat/Sun...IF I could go. Even after that, it may continue, but have...oh who cares..I can't go until the 8th. The green all over my face is NOT jealousy, it's......
David Wolfson
EF5
This is that time when the mood goes from elation to depression, but... wow! Western troughing and eastern ridging seems to be a persistent developing story for the period and likely through most of the month. The question is whether the pattern will be far enough east, but right now it looks like Nirvana compared to past years.
Chris Hayes
EF5
I leave for my 3-5 week chasecation on May 18th, and I'll be out there on the 21st. As long as an omega block or death ridge doesnt develop I'll be happy. I believe death ridge development may be delayed for a while due to how moist the ground is, which will keep it from becoming too hot. I agree with David on this. This pattern does look like Nirvana compared to 2005, and ESPECIALLY 2006.
Mike Hollingshead
I leave for my 3-5 week chasecation on May 18th, and I'll be out there on the 21st. As long as an omega block or death ridge doesnt develop I'll be happy. I believe death ridge development may be delayed for a while due to how moist the ground is, which will keep it from becoming too hot. I agree with David on this. This pattern does look like Nirvana compared to 2005, and ESPECIALLY 2006.
Flooding rains here just last week, after a wet spring.....but 93 today, 90 yesterday(both near, if not record highs). I don't think the pattern cares much about the wetness of the ground, at least not enough to matter much. I think if there's much of a correlation it has more to do with the pattern that'd been creating the wetness simply wanting to continue....and vice versa. So maybe the pattern itself is the good sign, not the ground wetness.
