5/3 to 5/9/07

[Paul Austin]

Looks good for us, but I'm not getting too excited too early. Cautiously optimistic. We leave from Gainesville/Tallahassee tomorrow (4/27) and return home 5/8. Experience teaches: if you don't like the model run today (or REALLY LIKE IT), wait a couple days; it'll change - not to be pessimistic, just offering an anti-jinx (is there such a thing?).

 

[JF Massicotte]

We are leaving Sunday and should be around on the 1st, will be chasing up to the 9th... last days models made us dream... This is dangerous since we can now be deceived.

Still I prefer that than seeing strong ridge with Hudson Bay vortex.

 

[Thomas Dolmer]

We will arrive in Wichita saturday the 28th. We will get a few days to settle in before the show starts. Looking good
The last weeks mood has been up and down after each model run, but finally it's looking good.

Thomas

 

[John MacKay]

Just outside of my range, but that doesn't mean something may happen just after that or the next week.

I hope the plane ride east to Houston and the plane ride from there to Wichita aren't too bad. Especially the Houston one.

I get in on the 10th (about 6 PM) and have college graduations to go to all day on the 12th (I still regret not going two hours north when Hallam was getting hit on graduation day three years ago).

Good luck to those having this week in your chase period. I can nowcast beginning 5 PM CDT on weekdays (depends on my schedule at work after a move to another project) and all day on weekends if anyone needs a nowcaster that week.

 

[Tom Dulong]

If the NCEP Ensemble models hold true, then Colorado-based storm trackers won't have to go far to catch lots of action during the period

 

[Tony Laubach]

May 2 and May 8 are the only two days I have to be here! Presentation one the 2nd and finals on the 8th! Beyond that, I'm game!

If the NCEP Ensemble models hold true, then Colorado-based storm trackers won't have to go far to catch lots of action during the period

That's what I like to hear!

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

I love living in Kansas. I can chase anytime and a lot of the time it isn't that far away. Mhmmm.

After last Tuesday I'm ready for some more storms.

 

[SteveCarter]

There will NEVER be enough moisture for this system, and the GFS is always wrong, and even if there WAS, the dryline will get snagged again, and dissipate. There...I feel better now, since I CAN'T GO THIS TIME! Seriously tho...does look pretty interesting, and I'm hoping some how I CAN wrangle a day or so. Hey, it's MAY!

 

[Reed Timmer]

Even Canada could see tornadoes by late week! How crazy would it be to be chasing in Saskatchewan in May.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Of course there will be a big outbreak (or two) in that time period! One of the only time few days during which I cannot chase this spring is the May 5-8 period... I'll be in Florida during that time for a wedding, so everyone should prepare for some big chase action. Arg.

Yea most of this chunk of time is right in the middle of Finals week.... *sigh

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Unfortunately the models are trending toward a more progressive wave now with zonal flow along the northern tier of states to follow. Though this is in the wishy-washy beyond 5-day period for the medium-range models, it seems reasonable given the current out to 5 day GFS progs for the N. Pacific.

 

[Warren Faidley]

One suggestion for chasers who are not aware of this, the DDC forecast discussions this time of year are excellent for long term severe weather forecasting. Some of the discussions go into global patterns. I just noted this morning (4-29) that they are picking up on the system for next weekend into days 8-9, and note the possibility of a sig. severe event. This is also supported by the NCEP Ensemble.

Warren

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I think it was Tuesday or Wednesday when I looked at the GFS and it had a textbook tornado outbreak over the plains for next Wednesday. Obviously since then it has slowed down the arrival of the trough and it doesn't look as good. Last nights run has more of a positive tilt as the wave kicks out into the plains on Saturday. Not that I am buying anything the GFS is selling right now. It has been very consistent in bringing excellent moisture in ahead of this system. That is the one thing I am buying because the air mass that will be advected northward ought to have plenty of residence time over the gulf. It is still way to early to know what will happen, but I'm just glad the GFS isn't showing a ridge camped out over the plains for the first week of May.

 

[Terry Tyler]

models vary alot...im sure there will be storms somewhere in the plains, but the magnitude and severity of the severe will probably not be known till 2 or 3 days in advance...

your really just "wishcasting" at anything over 6 days...i really dont even pay attention to anything past 6 days exept to use as an overview...i guess as a better idea of how the general synoptic setup will be like...

ive seen so many numerical models change their ways...

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I haven't really looked at the ensembles, but the latest (12Z 29 APR) GFS shows a pretty poor kinematic setup for significant severe weather next weekend into the early part of next week (May 3-7). However, the ECWMF shows a very classic severe weather pattern developing next weekend with a large West Coast trough with embedded shortwave troughs periodically entering the Plains. Given the track record of the ECWMF this season vs. the GFS, I'm inclined to side with the ECWMF (not to mention climo).

Now, not having looked at the ensembles, you can take this with a grain, but I have a gut feeling this is going to start looking good right before my crunch time with final exams. Hopefully not (for my selfish sake---lol), but that's the way it appears.

Gabe